Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGJT 220913
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STORMS
POP UP AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.  HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DID RECEIVE SOME
SNOWFALL WITH CDOT REPORTING A LITTLE OVER AN INCH FOR THE VAIL
PASS AND SNOTELS REPORTING AN INCH OR TWO. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS CONTINUING. MODELS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...MODELS PICK UP ON AN UPTICK IN
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS IN LARGE
PART TO COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES CAUSING
INSTABILITY. AREAS LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP INCLUDE THE SAN
JUANS...CENTRAL MTNS...ROAN/TAVAPUTS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
GRAND MESA. PRECIP AMTS LOOK TO BE AROUND .1 INCHES SO NOTHING TOO
EXCEPTIONAL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE INVERSIONS BEGIN TO SETUP BEFORE SUNSET. SOME
CLOUDS AND GRADIENT WINDS OF WEST 10-20 MPH AT MTN TOP LEVELS
PREVENTS LOW TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. ONLY THE
HIGHER VALLEYS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING. THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE NEXT ALASKAN LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS BRINGS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...MILD PLEASANT TEMPERATURES...AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO GET FLATTENED SATURDAY AS A DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE OVER THE PACNW. MODEL AGREEMENT STILL NOT GOOD FOR NEXT
SYSTEM. GFS SHOWS A RATHER SHALLOW TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION
BRINGING PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 STARTING MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHILE EC BRINGS IN DEEPER TROUGH WITH PRECIP STARTING
NOON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HARD TO SAY
WHICH MODEL NAILING IT SO BLENDED SOLN OF SOME PRECIP SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. EXPECT WARM
TEMPS TO DROP NEAR SEASONAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING BECOMING VFR
FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...MTN TAF SITES MAY SEE A RETURN TO
MVFR UNDER AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL FIRE FROM ABOUT 18Z
THROUGH 00Z. KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THIS PRECIP SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
ON TAP AFTER 00Z FOR TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...TGR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.