Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 231715
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
115 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY PROVIDING LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL PUSH CLOUDS THIS WAY TONIGHT AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE COMING THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
SLIPPING TO THE MID 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THUNDER THURSDAY.

IR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER WISCONSIN WHERE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED. THIS HIGH AND ACCOMPANYING FAIR SKIES WILL MOVE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. WE/LL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE PLAINS. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS LOW WILL OCCLUDE AS
IT MOVES EAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ABLE TO
SATURATE THE COLUMN BY LATE TONIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY.

A 50 KT LLJ AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT LATE THURSDAY WILL BRING UP
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE/LL SEE
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER THAT WE/LL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS. LI/S ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY ABOVE
0C...AND MUCAPE IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO
FOR THAT REASON WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

AFTER THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES BY THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY. WE/LL LEAVE CHC POPS GOING THOUGH TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN SAT NIGHT INTO TUE.  OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL THROUGH MON IS SW OF MI...HOWEVER NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT WE
WILL STAY DRY UP HERE IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MI.  TUE APPEARS TO BE THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

HIGH RES EURO HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO
MON. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH A DRY EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILING.  HOWEVER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION...THAT MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.  IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...DOWN IN INDIANA AND IL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

ON TUE AND UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST.  THAT
COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY.  SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A COLD LAYER NEAR THE
GROUND...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN.  FOR MY
NORTHERN COUNTIES..THE HIGH RES EURO CAME IN WITH MORE OF A SNOW
LOOK TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUE.  THIS IS SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FEATURE THIS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA 12 KFT AGL. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS GO
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
WHICH IN TURN WILL LIMIT WAVES HEIGHTS TO LESS THAN 3 FEET. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT WIND SPEEDS
ADJACENT TO THE SFC.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS TODAY. EVART WILL LIKELY BE
THE LONE ADVISORY BEYOND 24 HOURS. A CANCELLATION IS ANTICIPATED
FOR SCOTTVILLE BY SOMETIME THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. CROTON DAM
OPERATIONS HAVE DROPPED LEVELS BELOW ADVISORY STAGE...WHICH WILL
SOON BE CANCELED.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF AN
INCH. LESSER TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE AMOUNTS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO
CREATE ANY CONCERN. THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAY WARRANT WATCHING FOR
RAINFALL AND COOLER WEATHER MOVING IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93




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