Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 211356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM...HAVE UPDATED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT FIRST WAVE OF SHRA IN
SW ZONE MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND THRU MIDDAY...WITH
LOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A CHANCE. ALSO...WILL SEE
INCR CHANCES FOR A FEW SHRA IN THE NERN ZONES AS LOW LVL MOISTURE
POOLING ENCOUNTERS WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NE. MAX TEMPS A LITTLE
PROBLEMATIC TODAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE ERN ZONES
WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUN THIS MORNING AT LEAST...AND LOWEST
TEMPS IN INTERIOR SRN NH...WHERE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHRA WILL
KEEP TEMPS DOWN...BUT ANYWHERE THAT SEE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK OF SUN
COULD INCREASE MAXES BY ABOUT 5 F.

PREV DISC...
RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE BLOCK IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. I`VE CONFINED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. THE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE.
OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL
BE MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
AT THAT TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT FOR VLY FOG AT
KHIE/KLEB...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE AT
KCON/KAUG.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...


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