Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 142032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THEN OFFSHORE
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEW
YORK. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL DRIVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHOULD
SEE GOOD RAD COOLING. AND TEMPS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY. EXPECTING
MINS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT WITHOUT THE WIND. IF THE WINDS DIE
OFF RIGHT AFTER SUNSET MAY SEE TEMPS FREE FALL AND ACTUALLY DROP
BELOW CURRENT FORECAST. LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND -20 IN THE NORTH TO
5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGHS BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AND FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
S...WHICH WILL FOR ALLOW WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S AND LIGHT WINDS. THE MORNING LOOKS SUNNY...BUT
CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN NH...FOR NOW. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND THAT FOR LATER
MON NIGHT...BUT SNOW WILL LKLY BREAK OUT IN SRN NH SOMETIME DURINGTHE
EVENING COMMUTE...WHEN MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE IT WILL START DURING
THE EVENING OR LATER.

ON MON NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA AND WILL STAY SNOW
EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ALOFT WILL LKLY SEE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN
STARTING IN THE S AND MOVING NE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO
RAIN ON TUE...BUT IN ALL BUT COASTAL ROCKINGHAM AND ALONG
PENOBSCOT BAY...SHOULD STAY FREEZING OR FROZEN THRU MON NIGHT.
LOOK FOR MOST PLACES TO SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE ANY
CHANGEOVER WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF ICE BEFORE
CHANGEOVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING
AND ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM MON MAXES...WITH TEMPS THEN
RISING THRU THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE BEING EJECTED NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BRING A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WAA TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT AS IT TRAVELS TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH PLENTY OF
QPF AND INITIAL LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS BEING COLD MIXED PTYPE IS
EXPECTED EARLY TUE. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY TUE WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS SEE THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS
UNTIL SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS AGREE ON TAKING THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND
CREATING A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH TUE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. THE SYSTEM EXITS TUE NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT.

A WEAK CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WED/WED NIGHT. SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WED
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY SEE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER.

THU/FRI LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CANADIAN CLIPPER DROPS
SOUTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGL SAT
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PTYPE TO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MONDAY. IFR CONDS EXPECTED MON NIGHT IN
SN...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PL/FZRA.

LONG TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ALL TERMINALS TUE/TUE
NIGHT. MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY TUE WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS FOR KHIE AND PERHAPS KLEB IN -SHSN. VFR
THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE NW FLOW DIMINISHES SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
SEE SCA BE CLEARED BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WIND
FOR MODERATE FZ SPRAY GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIR MASS. WIND SHOULD
DIMINISH FURTHER MON MORNING...AND WITH WARMING TEMPS SHOULD SEE
AN END TO THE FREEZING SPRAY. S WINDS PICK UP MON AFTERNOON AND
MAY NEED ANOTHER SCA MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A
STRONG SOUTHERLY PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A WINDSHIFT TO WEST WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS. LEFTOVER HIGH SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE UNTIL LATE WED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ007-008-011>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA/MARINE


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