Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 011131
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
731 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will slowly pass well south and east south of
New England today through tonight. and will produce showers across
the region.  Another area of weak low pressure will slowly shift
east from the Great lakes Sunday through Monday, providing more
showers.  High pressure will build in from the northeast Monday
night through tuesday and will hold over the region Wednesday and
Thursday. High pressure will shift off to the east on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM... This update hits the POPs harder for today, especially
the morning, in York county, and the Seacoast and Merrimack Vly
regions of NH, as decent cluster of SHRA associated with
deformation from low off the coast move north and east.

Previously...Weak sfc low moving northward from off the mid-
Atlantic coast today runs into ridging aloft and get shunted east
about the time it reaches Cape Cod late today. Expect showers to
continue to make inroads into the sfc ridging extending over nrn
New England from the northeast. The dry air being supported by NE
flow will hold to some degree, but should some sct SHRA
progressing northward and eastward today, and lingering into
tonight. Overall QPF will be around a quarter inch, with a little
more in spots, and a little less in others.

Temps will range from the mid 50s in srn NH and SW ME., to the
low 60s in far NE zones, where some breaks of sun will be possible
today, especially this morning. Lows tonight will generally be in
the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
500 mb closed low to our west fills a little and starts to creep
NE as weak troughing begins to to pick it up. Should see a brief
surge in the ridging on Sunday, and this will thin the clouds out
a bit and lower the chc of showers, especially in the ern half of
the CWA. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday in many
spots, generally in the 60-65 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Closed upper low will continue to push in from the west Sunday night
keeping cloudy skies and a chance of showers in the forecast.
Lows will bottom out in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Remnants of the upper low will settle over the region on Monday
with cold pool aloft generating enough instability to produce
scattered showers...mainly across southern New Hampshire and
southwest Maine. Highs on Monday will reach the lower to mid 60s
in most areas.

High pressure will begin to nose in from the northeast Monday night
and Tuesday suppressing clouds to the southwest. Expect diminishing
clouds overnight across western Maine and this trend will extend
into New Hampshire on Tuesday. Lows Tuesday night will range
through 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Tuesday will top out in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

High pressure will continue to build in from the east Tuesday night
and will hold over the region both Wednesday and Thursday.
Generally looking for mostly clear skies through the period with
highs in the lower to mid 60s and lows in the 40s both days.

High pressure will begin to drift off to the east Thursday night
and Friday with ocean stratus making another appearance in southern
New Hampshire and southwest Maine by Friday morning as winds turn
onshore. Expect this shallow layer of moisture to thin out somewhat
during Friday afternoon before filling back in Friday night. Highs
on Friday will again top out in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Deep lyr dry air near the sfc has evaporated a lot
of the rain, and vis has stayed up at most of the terminals. MVFR
cigs have moved in from the south and will linger into tonight
where they are now, and will move into the N and E later today.
Will have to watch for some IFR coastal fog and stratus tonight.
Should see some improvement on Sunday.

Long Term...MVFR/IFR ceilings Sunday night and Monday. Becoming
VFR in western Maine Monday night and across southern New
Hampshire on Tuesday. VFR Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...NE flow persists, and will continue to produce long
period swell of 4-6 feet south of Casco bay through tonight. Also
winds will remain near SCA levels, so have extended the SCA into
Sunday morning. May need to expand it east late tongiht and early
Sunday as weak low pressure passes south of the waters.

Long Term...No problems noted.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Sinsabaugh
AVIATION...
MARINE...



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