Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 070752
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
152 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z, A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST
TX THRU MIDDLE TN AND INTO PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A RATHER
STRONG TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST, JUST PASSING EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SEVERAL WAVES WITHIN NW FLOW
ENTERING THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

ANOTHER NICE WX DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE
L-M50S. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND LFQ OF POLAR JET AXIS ARRIVES. DIVERGENCE ALOFT
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE UVVS TO SUPPORT PRECIP.
THE QUESTION IS LOW LEVEL MOISTENING. THE NAM IS EXTREMELY DRY AND
FORECASTS NO PRECIP TONIGHT. EVEN THE GFS MOS IS QUITE LOW WITH POPS,
ALTHOUGH THE RAW FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. FIRST "WAVE" OF
PRECIP OR VIRGA WILL SLIDE SE OF THE AREA QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. THEN THE STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
GENERATING SOME LIMITED CAPE FOR SHOWERY PRECIP. OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF SHOWERY PRECIP
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN SRN TN AND FAR NERN AL. PRECIP
SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO -SHSN ATOP THE PLATEAU MONDAY AFTN. A
SECONDARY VORT LOBE DROPS SE RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING INTO KY/MIDDLE
TN. THIS ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PLATEAU MAY PRODUCE
PERSISTENT -SHSN IN SOME AREAS. BUT PINNING THE AREAL COVERAGE
REMAINS A QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
FOR NOW. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE PLATEAU IN
LATER UPDATES IF THE CONFIDENCE IN POP GOES UP, PARTICULARLY WITH
AREAL COVERAGE.

AFTER A COLD DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER TROF RETREATS ITS GRIP OVER
THE TN VALLEY BY THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE 40S TO
L50S AT LEAST ON THURSDAY (THE ECMWF SUGGESTS EVEN WARMER). LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP MAY DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AS A NWLY FLOW
SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH A W-SW SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR -SN/FZRA INITIALLY,
BUT SIDING WITH THE WARMER ECWMF AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY WITH A
BLENDED POP OF ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE NEW ECWMF SHOWS -SHSN
POTENTIAL WITH THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1049 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE AL WILL BE EAST OF THE STATE BY
SUNDAY MRNG. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. CI/AC CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ARND 00Z AS A UPPER TROF/CDFNT
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CWA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    55  39  43  28 /   0  20  30  30
SHOALS        55  38  42  28 /   0  10  30  20
VINEMONT      54  38  41  26 /   0  10  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  52  35  40  26 /   0  20  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   53  36  42  28 /   0  10  30  30
FORT PAYNE    52  35  42  26 /   0  20  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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