Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 301200
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 544 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
LARGE TROUGH OUT IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IS SLIDING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO THE MS VALLEY TODAY. STRATUS HAS SLOWLY MOVED
WEST INTO THE HUN CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS HELD OFF FOG FORMATION FOR A
LITTLE BIT...BUT LOCATIONS MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
VISIBILITY DROPS.

WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY AND WED...CAN EXPECT TO SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH SW FLOW WILL BEGIN ON WED WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH S FLOW WILL RETURN ON THURS. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH WED NIGHT AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURS NIGHT THAT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LAPSE
RATES LOOK WEAK ON THURS BUT HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR 30-40KTS.
ITS NOT UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT THAT THE LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY
STEEPEN...AND THE SHEAR REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE 30-40KTS ACROSS THE REGION. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE
HUN CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING SO LEFT IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THEN.

LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPS STARTING ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND A
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THIS COLDER AIR TO
SETTLE IN. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK COULD STILL BE CHILLY WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. BUT TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BY TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURNING.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...INTERESTING SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS MORNING AS DENSE
FOG IS DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A THICK IFR STRATUS DECK
ADVANCING NWWD FROM NE ALABAMA/NW GEORGIA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT FURTHER VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL VERY LIMITED AT HSV...WITH IFR
STRATUS CIGS PSBL THRU 30/15Z. AT MSL...VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL STRATUS DECK ARRIVES ARND 13Z...WITH CIGS IMPROVING BY
15Z AT THIS TERMINAL AS WELL. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF
TAF PERIOD...WITH SCT CU THIS AFTN BENEATH SCT/BKN CI. SCT CI WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL THRU THE
PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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