Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 071156
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THERMAL FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AGAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES PUSH UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT. IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO INCREASE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS PCPN ALL
RAIN...BUT SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A MIX LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AS SOME COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

WE WILL THEN GET INTO A BIT OF A DRY SLOT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND FRONT SO WILL TAPER BACK POPS TO LOWER
CHANCE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE...LEADING TO SOME WEAK LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITIES.
THIS IS MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...SO
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN WORKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE
COUNTERED BY A LITTLE BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
PCPN STARTING OFF AS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EAST...THEN POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE EAST...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO ALL SNOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD
ONLY BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD CAA DEVELOPING. IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME BETTER LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT UNIFORM DUE TO SOME OF THE
MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL THOUGH
EXPECT AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
INCH OR SO ON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO PINWHEEL OUT TO
THE EAST AND FILL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKES
HOWEVER...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER. STARTED TUESDAY NIGHT
OFF WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY ALLOWED POPS TO LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE
GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT RUNS SOME H5 ENERGY SE ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING A STREAK OF SNOW THROUGH NRN KY. WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON IT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK MORE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BRINGS CAA FLOW OFF THE LAKES
AGAIN AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES. FOR SATURDAY MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 10- 15...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
THE MID 20S. FRIDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGHS GET UP TO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENTLY ALL TAF SITES VFR AS SURFACE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH HAS
SLOWLY STARTED TO BREAKDOWN THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
STILL FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF GUSTS IN TAFS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAFS IS WHEN
THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN INTO COLUMBUS MONDAY MORNING. ALL
PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
COLUMBUS DOES SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP STARTING OUT AS SNOW
MONDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY COME TO AN END AFTER THE FIRST ROUND MOVES EAST MONDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND WEAK FRONT. A
SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT RAIN WILL START TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES


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