Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 270820
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
420 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will result in warm and
humid conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
through Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night
into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Convectively enhanced short wave in western Kentucky early this
morning will lift north northeast through the day. This along with
heating will result in some showers and thunderstorms to develop,
with a slightly better chance across the northern part of the
forecast area. GFS MOS looked reasonable for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Appears that some energy from subtropical low that will impact
the southeast will shear north into the region over the weekend.
This forcing will help provide a better chance for precipitation
area wide, especially Saturday into Saturday evening. With the
onset of any precipitation potentially earlier in the day along
with more cloud cover, expect highs a bit lower than today. There
could still be some storms on Sunday in the eastern counties from
this sheared energy. But there also could be some showers and
storms in the western counties in advance of a weak cold front.
Forecast is generally closer to cooler guidance each period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A short wave lifting northeast through the Great Lakes will result
in a weak cold front pushing through the area Sunday night into
Monday. Upper support is moving away from the area and instability
will be decreasing as the front moves in. So chance of
precipitation will be diminishing through the evening even with
the front moving in.

High pressure will build in later Monday and continue to extend
across the area on Tuesday. This will result in slightly lower
humidity along with little if any chance of rain.

A deep trough will develop and then move out of the Plains late in
the week. This will bring another cold front into the region with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms along it.

Temperatures slightly above normal will persist.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally just expect some mid and high clouds across the TAF
sites during the overnight hours. Although some cloud cover will
be present cannot rule out some brief MVFR VSBYS at the TAF sites.
At KLUK expect VSBYS to be variable between VFR and VLIFR at
times.

Hi res models keep slowing onset on weak shower activity
across the TAF sites. Added a couple to a few hour period of VCSH
to the TAFs for this morning after sunrise from southwest to
northeast.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Novak


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