Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 140251
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
951 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface low pressure will move east across southern Michigan
this afternoon into evening bringing a chance of snow. High
pressure will then build into the area for Thursday. Another
cold front will then cross the area Friday evening into Saturday
morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
993 mb surface low pressure is currently located over Northwest
Ohio. Extending to the south is a surface cold front pushing
across the ILN area. Winds gusting close to 50 mph under strong
PV anomaly and pressure rise/fall couplet warrant Wind Advisory
in effect until 5 am.

Early Thursday morning the surface low and corresponding mid
level short wave will pull east of the area. The surface cold
front will also clear the zones with temperatures quickly
falling into the 20s behind. Winds will slowly begin to relax as
sunrise approaches Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
During the day Thursday more cold air will filter into the
region with 850 mb temperatures falling towards 10 degrees C
below zero. High pressure will move in for the afternoon with
the pressure gradient slowly relaxing. This working with clouds
remaining across the region will keep high temperatures around
or below freezing.

&&
Just behind the surface cold
front a mid-level short wave will approach from the northwest
with the 1.5 PV surface diving down to ~500 mb. Even though the
timing of when the PV anomaly arrives is not great (as compared
to if it was during the afternoon) it still will be sufficient
to provide gusts up to 40 mph for the next few hours.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface low pressure to track through the northern Great Lakes
Friday. Best precipitation to stay to ILN/s north closer to the
surface wave. Will carry low chance pop of snow showers north
Friday/Friday night. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, with highs Friday ranging from the upper 20s north to the
mid 30s south.

Upper level flow backs westerly with ridge building into the region.
Southerly low level flow develops Saturday with temperatures warming
to near normal. Expect highs Saturday to range from the mid 30s
north to the mid 40s south.

Mid level flow backs southwesterly with moisture spreading back into
the area early next week. Model solutions differ on timing and
strength. Due to model solution spread, confidence decreases. Will
use a blended approach with chance pops spreading in Sunday. The
p-type will change over to rain in the warm air advection and then
mix with snow in the north prior to ending Monday. This pcpn event
looks to be progressive with pcpn ending early Monday. Sundays
temperatures to run a little above normal with highs from 40 to 45.
Temperatures looks to continue a little above normal with Mondays
highs ranging from the the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south.

With a mid level trof across the Great Lakes and northwest flow
over the area, will limit pops to low chance over the far north
Tuesday. Based on thermal profiles, will allow for a mix of rain and
snow. Surface high pressure to then offer dry weather at mid week.
Temperatures close to normal next Tuesday and Wednesday with highs
from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect MVFR ceilings within a couple hours as low level
moisture increases in the circulation around Great Lakes low
pressure. Light drizzle is forecast to occur with the lowered
ceilings. As high pressure and drier moves in, improvement back
to VFR will be gradual from southwest to northeast, with CVG and
LUK seeing VFR around 12z, DAY and ILN 16-18z, and CMH/LCK
around 23z. Winds will be gusty, reaching close to 30 knots
tonight before subsiding Thursday in the relaxed gradient around
the high pressure, while direction changes from southwest to Just behind the surface cold
front a mid-level short wave will approach from the northwest
with the 1.5 PV surface diving down to ~500 mb. Even though the
timing of when the PV anomaly arrives is not great (as compared
to if it was during the afternoon) it still will be sufficient
to provide gusts up to 40 mph for the next few hours.north.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Friday
and again on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio



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