Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 271059
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
659 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Very Warm and humid conditions will continue through the weekend.
In the Very warm and humid airmass, a few afternoon thunderstorms
will be possible today mainly across the west. By Sunday into
Monday, several weak upper level disturbances will provide a
little better chance for a few showers and thunderstorms in the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Elongated mid level ridge axis centered to our se builds a little
north and east today. Moderate instability develops this afternoon
across ILN/s western counties. Due to lack of significant forcing,
have limited pops to slight chance across the west around the
periphery of the mid level high durg the afternoon. Have bumped
temperatures slightly higher with highs from the upper 80s nw to
the lower/mid 90s se. These very warm readings combined with
humid conditions will result in heat indices in the mid 90s acrs
the north and upper 90s acrs the southern half of the FA. A few
locations in the south may briefly exceed 100. Will mention these
heat indices in HWO product.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Nearly stationary elongated mid level ridge remains centered to
our se with a shortwave moving thru the Great Lakes, tonight/Sunday.
Moderate instby develops during the afternoon with a weak boundary
dropping south into the Ohio Valley. Have low chance pops across
the entire region with the best likelihood for convection across
the north. Very warm readings expected again on Sunday with highs
from the upper 80s nw to the lower/middle 90s se. Mid and upper
90s heat indices expected again Sunday afternoon.

Surface high pressure to build acrs the Great Lakes Monday where
mid level westerlies will exist. Meanwhile, e-w elongated mid
level ridge will stretch from the Central Plains thru the Tn
Valley and Del Mar Va. Weak boundary across the south may lead to
isold convective development across the south Monday afternoon.
Have limited pops to slight chance. Highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s will result in heat indices in the mid/upr 90s across
the southern half of ILN/s FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The proximity of a weak and somewhat nebulous surface boundary over
the region through early Wednesday will continue to necessitate the
potential for diurnally driven thunderstorm activity peaking in the
late day in a continued humid airmass.

Upper level high over the southeastern U.S. will flatten out and
retrograde into the Arklatex region as northwest flow sets up over
the northeastern U.S. with ridging in the Great Plains. The
northwest flow will help push a surface front through the Ohio
Valley on Wednesday, ushering in another welcome dry and cooler
period to start out September. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90
will be found Monday and Tuesday, drop into the 80s Wednesday and be
a more pleasant low to mid 80s for the end of the week. Min temps in
the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday and Tuesday will drop into the
lower 60s by weeks end.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface analysis shows a slow moving front near the Ohio River.
With no precip occurring along the front, skies are cloudy due to
mid and high level moisture that originated from earlier convection
over far western Kentucky.

VFR will likely continue through the forecast period for
the most part, though BR will reduce visibility at LUK early this
morning and probably on Sunday morning as well. Models indicate
convection will be isolated at most and thus not worth mentioning
in the forecast. Scattered cumulus will probably form during
daylight hours, while cirrus persists. Winds will not be much of a
factor either with speeds around 7 knots out of the southeast.
Light northeast winds and continued VFR are expected after 12z
Sunday at CVG.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Coniglio


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