Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 012320
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
620 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS OHIO
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IN A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE LOW. LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO
TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE ILN AREA THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
CIRCULATE AROUND THE LOW. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR FREEZING OVER WEST
CENTRAL OHIO WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
MORNING...SO KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR 3 COUNTIES
THERE. FOR THE REST OF AREA...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON A NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL CAUSE ANY LEFT OVER RAIN TO CHANGE TO
A DUSTING OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER
TEENS NORTHWEST UP TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEFORE
ENDING MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS
TO UPPER 20S. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO
MENTION IN THE HWO WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS MINUS 10 MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN
LOCATIONS STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT.
A MODERATE AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
30S TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF DIGGING TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
WITH A QUICK MORNING SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE REGION WED. GFS HAS
COME IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLN WHICH ALLOWS FOR A BETTER PERIOD OF
LIGHT PCPN IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS DROPPING SOUTH
THRU THE FA WED/WED NIGHT. PCPN WILL LKLY START AS SNOW NORTH AND
RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW WED EVE. HIGHS ON WED FROM
THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FAR SOUTHEAST.

REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN
TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO THURSDAY. 8H TEMPS OF -20
DEG C TO SETTLE INTO OHIO  ON THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN. COLD AND DRY
WEATHER ON TAP WITH WED NIGHT/S LOWS FROM THE NEAR ZERO ACRS THE
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER TEENS SE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER MID TEENS NW TO THE
UPPER 20S SE.

THIS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY EAST TO THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NW TO NEAR 10 SE.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY FROM
THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 30S FAR SOUTH

MODEL SOLNS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BACK DOOR TYPE DROPPING
INTO OHIO AS SFC WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE MID MS VLY. WILL HAVE PCPN
DEVELOP ACRS THE NORTH TOWARD EVENING SATURDAY AND SPREAD SOUTH
ACRS THE ENTIRE FA SAT NIGHT/SUN. EXPECT SNOW ACRS THE NORTH AND
A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGHS ON
SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
LOWS SAT NIGHT FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE EARLY
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MIXED
IN...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE PREVAILING FOR ALL LOCATIONS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. AFTER THE STEADY RAIN COMES TO AN
END...SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
CEILINGS THAT WILL LIKELY LOWER INTO THE 400-800 FOOT RANGE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO SSW...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
LEADS TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHIFT TO THE NNE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...AND WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS
CEILINGS RISE AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.