Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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540
FXUS61 KILN 271700
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
100 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Upper Midwest today and move
into the Ohio Valley tonight. As it moves east on Wednesday,
southerly flow will bring a warming trend to the region through
the end of the week. A cold front is expected to pass to the
southeast early on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The center of an area of surface high pressure is currently
centered in east-central Illinois, drifting east-southeastward
over the rest of the day. The ILN CWA will be on the
northeastern periphery of the high, with light WNW flow a the
surface, leading to little (if any) warm advection at the
surface. 850mb temperatures actually dropped overnight, and will
remain generally steady today -- so despite a day with
plentiful sunshine, max temps will likely be no warmer than
yesterday (possibly a degree or two cooler).

Previous discussion >
A few lingering showers in the southeast will exit the region
before daybreak.

High pressure will bring a clearing trend and one more day of
temperatures that are about 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the high moves southeast tonight, return flow will bring
slightly warmer min temps tonight than this morning`s lows,
still in the lower to middle 50s. After this, the warming trend
will begin with generally clear skies Wednesday and increasing
cloud cover from the northwest Wednesday night. Temperatures
here will be closest to normal, with another jump in
temperatures Thursday. Overnight lows Thursday night will warm
to around 70 and linger there until the next front crosses on
the weekend. Daytime highs Thursday and Friday will be in the
middle 80s most locations, upper 80s possible in the south and
southeast given more sunshine and a longer period of time with
southerly flow.

Thunderstorm chances will increase on Thursday, primarily
north of the I-70 corridor as a front drapes west to east
through northern Ohio. The bulk of thunderstorm activity will
lie north of the CWA but some outlying storms may skirt the
northern quarter of the CWA during the day and overnight. By
Friday, the upper level shortwave sparking most of the
development will coincide with the surface boundary. This will
move form northwest to southeast overnight, with the frontal
system passing on Saturday. Storms that do develop will have a
higher propensity of heavy rainfall from Friday into Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have sped up the progression of the cold front on Saturday, and
this is the time that has the highest incidence of thunderstorm
activity.

With a clearing push behind the cold front late Saturday,
models have trended drier for Sunday, before warm advection
begins to bring a chance of precipitation into the area again on
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With high pressure in place, generally tranquil conditions are
expected through the TAF period, with VFR conditions. Scattered
cumulus clouds (4kft-5kft) have developed today, and will
dissipate by evening. WNW winds today will shift to the SW and
become much weaker overnight. Though the air mass is dry, some
fog is expected at KLUK, but will keep the forecast in the
MVFR/IFR range rather than LIFR.

Tomorrow, winds will shift again to the south, and will increase
in strength to around 8-12 knots (gusts are possible at KDAY).
Clouds should be limited to cirrus and a slight chance of some
VFR cumulus development.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times from Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Franks/Hatzos
AVIATION...Hatzos



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