Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 271030
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES






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