Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 301459
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1059 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EDGING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF LIGHTNING.
THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO JUMP QUICKLY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS HOWEVER THEN EXPECT THE WARMING TO SLOW DOWN AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FEW WIND GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SEEN AROUND THE FA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS
LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL
DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INDIANA MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA OF PCPN
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THUS THIS POSSIBILITY OF
PCPN IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF
THIS CONCERN THE UPDATED 12Z FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CUTBACK AND
DELAY THE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THIS ALONG WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME EARLY MORNING
OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOG. SURFACE WINDS TODAY SHOULD BE SW 5 TO 15KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.

EARLY TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF PCPN. THE PCPN SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING BEYOND
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WILL BE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF I-71. AS THE PCPN
PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER TO MVFR. IF THE PCPN BECOMES MORE CONTINUOUS...RAIN INSTEAD
OF SHOWERS THE SE TAFS...KCVG, KLUK, AND KILN COULD SEE IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT UPDATED FORECASTS TO HOME IN ON THIS
ISSUE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SW AT 10KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU






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