Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 230006
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
706 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER A LULL THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHORT WAVE ENERGY LATER
TONIGHT THAT MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN





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