Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 060131
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
931 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCHING VERY SLOWLY
NORTHWEST AND ARE JUST ABOUT TO THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE. EXPECT
THUNDER THREAT TO BEGIN TO DROP OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SO WILL JUST HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 80S WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST NEARING THE MIDDLE 80S WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
AREA...EXPECT TO SEE ANY PCPN CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...WILL GENERALLY JUST ALLOW
FOR SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...WHERE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCMH/KLCK LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SOME MVFR BR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL







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