Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230749
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
349 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF WATERS OFFSHORE FROM MAINLAND MONROE TO THE WATERS SURROUNDING
THE DRY TORTUGAS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE KEYS SERVICE AREA. WINDS
ARE FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST CLOSE TO 10 MPH ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN...AND THE ELEVATED CMAN SENSORS STRETCHED NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
REPORTING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 82 TO 85
DEGREES.

A SLIVER OF DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN ELONGATED NEAR THE KEYS...AND
EXTENDING INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EASE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO AS LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY IN
THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA...LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.
THIS LOW WILL OF COURSE BE THE FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. FOR GOOD NEWS...THERE HAS BEEN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS IN KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE
KEYS AND EVENTUALLY BEING LIFTED NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD BY A DEEPENING
TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST. THE GFS HAS TENDED FURTHER EAST WITH ITS
SOLUTION...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. BUT...IT LAGS BEHIND AND
MEANDERS IN THE EASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND CURVES
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAN THE OTHER LARGE SCALE MODELS. THE
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN OUR MID-RANGE FORECAST TO A DEGREE...BUT
THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF CHANGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE
RADICAL CHANGES TO ANY OF THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY TO THE WINDS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IN THE SHORT TERM...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF DRIER AIR AND DEEP RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND STATE OF FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES MAY MODERATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MOSTLY GENTLE BREEZES THIS WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GRIDDED
WINDS WERE BACKED STEADILY FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE
LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE MID-WEEK CONDITIONS IS
NOT THE GREATEST ON THAT ACCOUNT...AND OF COURSE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS FORECAST WILL
REMAIN CONSERVATIVE THANKS TO AT LEAST GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS WELL WEST OF CENTER. THAT COULD CHANGE. MARINERS SHOULD
MONITOR THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY NEAR 5 KNOTS...WITH WINDS OFF THE DECK THROUGH 10 KFT
NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1889...2.11 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
AUGUST 23 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  92  83  92  82 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  93  82  93  81 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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