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FXUS62 KKEY 260907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
407 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - AN AMPLIFIED MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
UNITED STATES AND REACHES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
TROUGHING IS TAKING PLACE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
A LOW DEEPENING JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A SWATH OF FAST MOVING
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCAL WINDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ARE NOW MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL NEAR 80
DEGREES...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. FURTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST...A COLD FRONT IS GAINING SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BUOY 42003 HAS BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

FORECAST - THE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL RACE OFF NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING PAST MAINE BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE SWATH OF SHOWERS
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL FINALLY BE FLUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE KEYS AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE AHEAD OF THE LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH/FRONT...AS A RESULT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION. IT IS LIKELY HOWEVER THAT AT LEAST A SPELL OF SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BLASTS
THROUGH. AFTER DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY AS WINDS FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE DAY TO END WITH TEMPERATURES DESCENDING
THROUGH THE UPPER 60S AND DEW POINTS FALLING NEAR 60.

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A HIGH CELL MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 60 IN THE LOWER
KEYS AND 55 TO 60 IN THE UPPER KEYS. WINDS WILL LULL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE 70S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH CELL SETS UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE ALREADY COOL AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE KEYS...AND LOWS WILL BE A BIT LOWER IN THE 50S.

THE HIGH CELL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...LOCAL WINDS WILL
MODERATE AND STEADILY VEER...BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARDS UNDER
THE INCREASINGLY WARMER MARITIME TRAJECTORY. THE STILL FAST EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THEY VEER WESTERLY...THEN SHIFT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BECOMING STRONG AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KEYS WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
THEN PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF
LULL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
MOST KEYS WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND DRAW NEARER THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
STRONGER BREEZES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WINDS
TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE DURATION OF THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS AND GUSTY AROUND 26/11Z. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED AT
AROUND 050 AFT 27/00Z.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  62  70  60 / 60 0 0 0
MARATHON  76  60  69  58 / 60 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

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