Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 181936

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
236 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

A review of GOES-16 Channel 2 (Visible) images shows the westward
migration of a shallow cloud cluster across the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters today. The cloud cluster has been
associated with shallow convection and widely scattered mostly
light to moderate rain showers with minor rainfall accumulations.
Depth and vigor of cumulus/stratocumulus has been limited by
presence of a strong subsidence inversion aloft and weak
instability below the inversion. Clearing has occurred in the
Florida Keys from east to west during the last few hours, and the
highest temperatures of the day likely will be reached during the
next few hours. This rain-and-cloud cluster is associated with a
weak trough at the nose of a deepening belt of easterlies south of
an expanding low-level anticyclone.

The forecast for the next week will feature windy weather and
above-normal temperatures, along with a few short-lived spells of
cloudy/rainy weather. Fair and fine weather will prevail tonight
and Monday as east breezes freshen. A cloud cluster currently
evident in satellite imagery migrating along the northern fringe
of the Greater Antilles will reach the Keys and adjacent waters
Monday night, with a decent chance of measurable rain (50%).
Thereafter, it will clear out for another 48 hours before the next
potential cloud cluster arrives Wednesday night or Thursday.
Strongest winds will be Monday night and early Tuesday. Winds will
stay up until next weekend.

A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect later this afternoon
for Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida zones due to
increasing east winds and building seas. An Atlantic ridge of
high pressure extending across central Florida this afternoon,
will move northward tonight. An area of high pressure then will
expand and intensify over the western North Atlantic Ocean Monday
through Wednesday.

Through 19/18Z, prevailing VFR conditions are expected at both EYW
and MTH. East winds will become increasingly stronger and gustier,
especially after 19/12Z.

Key West  73  80  74  81 / -  -  50 20
Marathon  73  81  74  82 / -  -  50 20



Data Collection......Chesser

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