Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 241906
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
306 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
UNDER AN ELEVATED STABLE LAYER IS PRODUCING A LARGE MID DECK ACROSS
THE LOWER KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
SUNNY. NO SHOWERS WERE DETECTED ON LOCAL RADARS...DUE TO A STILL
FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.

FORECAST - FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BROADER AREA. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT...AND WHILE GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST...THEY WILL AT TIMES
BECOME VARIABLE. EXPECT DAY TIME HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR NORMAL. INTERIOR AND PROTECTED AREAS
MAY RADIATE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE WEAK PREVAILING FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO NON THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING TONIGHT. THE SWATH OF
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH A WEAKENING INHIBITION
LAYER...AND SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE CONVERGENT DUE TO
EFFECTS OF DAY TIME HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS.

A STRONG AND VERY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
COUNTRYS MID SECTION WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND CORRESPONDING FALLING PRESSURES IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE...THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE PUSHING UP WINDS TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING...PERSISTING INTO MID WEEK. THIS STRONGER
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 70S...AND WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOCALIZED RIDGING THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL
KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY AT BAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS KEYS WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TENDING A BIT STRONGER OUT OF
A PRIMARILY EASTERLY DIRECTION. SOUTHEAST BREEZES WINDS INCREASE TO A
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AS PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PERSIST INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 25/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A MOISTENING TREND AT LOW ALTITUDES AFTER 25/00Z WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION...MOVING FROM ABOUT 190/08KT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS MAY
BE IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER EYW OR MTH OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
25/06Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT IS TOO SMALL FOR INCLUSION IN 18Z TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  84  75  83 / 10 -  -  -
MARATHON  74  86  75  86 / 10 -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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