Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 291829
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
228 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...VARIABLE WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE AVERAGING
IN THE LOWER 90S IN KEYS COMMUNITIES. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING
A FEW SHOWERS TRACKING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND
MONROE. SURFACE WISE...AN EAST-WEST...ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS IS LOCKED DOWN AND
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...WITH VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON
OUR COASTAL WATERS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC...NARROW
RIDGE LYING ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE ISLAND OF CUBA...WITH A TROUGH/CUT-OFF
LOW LINGERING IN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS
BECAUSE OF LOG JAM ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ON OUR
COUNTY WARNING FOR AT LEAST THE COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW
700 MB AND A PREDOMINATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE UPPER KEYS AND THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT POPS WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS MOS GUIDANCE.
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S TO PERHAPS LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERSISTENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE SUNSHINE STATE...AS A MINOR LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION MIGRATES WESTWARD
AND POSSIBLY CROSSES OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF THIS
UNDULATION...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SCANT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUBSEQUENTLY...ONLY ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS WILL BE RETAINED WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY
VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE BALANCE OF
THIS WEEK...BEFORE A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT SIMILAR SPEEDS PREVAIL
FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS TONIGHT. WINDS UP TO 6 KNOTS WITH A GENERAL
DIRECTION FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
TONIGHT...WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  80 92 80 92 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  80 94 80 94 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS............KN
DATA ACQUISITION.............SC

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