Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 310747
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 15
KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE HIGHEST SUNDAY DUE TO
MODERATE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE HIGHEST
WELL AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TODAY DUE TO SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF HAWK CHANNEL SUNDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST INTL AND MARATHON
FLA KEYS AIRPORT TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR THE SFC TO 2 KFT
AGL...WINDS WILL AVG FROM 010-030 DEG AROUND 10 KTS VEER TO 040-050
DEG BY 10Z AND INCR TO 13 TO 15 KTS WITH GSTS NR 20 KTS...THEN VEER
TO 090 DEG AFT 16Z AND INCR TO 16 TO 18 KTS WITH GSTS BETWN 23 AND
27 KTS. EXPECT SCT CLOUDS AT FL020-030 AND FL040-050 RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1885...1.77 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JANUARY 31ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 130 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  73 66 76 71 / 05 10 20 10
MARATHON  73 66 76 71 / 05 10 20 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................FUTTERMAN

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