Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 020806
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
406 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A BROAD WEAK AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS
FLORIDA...RESULTING IN LIGHT EAST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. A BIT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRIER AIR...ALONG WITH
THE WEAK FLOW IS KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED. ONLY RECENTLY HAS
WIDELY SCATTERED AND GENERALLY WEAK SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY ON THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
WEAK BUT STEADY FLOW HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S.

FORECAST - THE BROAD AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY WEAK OUT OF THE EAST. THE
LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BE WEAK. SURFACE WINDS WILL DAILY BACK
NORTH OF EAST AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASINGLY BACK DAILY TO NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...THE BEST TRIGGERS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE KEYS AREA
OFF OF SOUTH FLORIDA...ISLAND CLOUD LINES...AND LATE NIGHT MARITIME
SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE TODAY...INCREASING TO LOW THEN
MID CHANCE SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

INCREASED UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE COMPLICATED DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL GENERATE BROAD DEEP
LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THE LOWER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE KEYS IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD. INCREASED
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR PRECIP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT MAINLY
EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
LATE THIS WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENTLE EAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND
MTH TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEPTEMBER 2...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1935...THE EYE OF THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE MOVED
NORTHWEST ACROSS LONG KEY AND LOWER MATECUMBE KEY IN THE EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY A STORM TIDE 15-20 FT ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER AND AN EYE
LULL OF 55 MINUTES ON LONG KEY. ENGINEERING STUDIES INDICATED GUSTS
OF 150 TO 200 MPH FROM LOWER MATECUMBE KEY TO ISLAMORADA. OVER 400
PEOPLE WERE KILLED...MANY OF WHOM WERE WORLD WAR I VETERANS WORKING
ON THE OVERSEAS RAILROAD...WHICH WAS DESTROYED. IT WAS THE STRONGEST
HURRICANE EVER TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. (SEE
HTTP://EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG/WIKI/LABOR_DAY_HURRICANE FOR MORE
INFO./DETAILS.)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  90  82  89  81 / 20 30 30 30
MARATHON  93  82  92  81 / 20 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR

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