Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260640
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
240 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. C-MAN
WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES WILL FALL TO JUST
UNDER ONE AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TODAY...WHICH IS ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JULY. PWAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ONE AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN GRADUALLY INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 10Z AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. CONDITIONS
LOWER THAN MVFR ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER. THEREAFTER...VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND A
SEASONALLY STRONG NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION TAKE HOLD BY 18Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2007...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 87 DEGREES. THIS IS THE
WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST DURING THE
MONTH OF JULY. IN ADDITION...THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES IS
TIED AS THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91 83 91 82 / 10 05 10 20
MARATHON  93 83 92 82 / 10 05 10 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MSB

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