Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 101431
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1031 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...DRIVEN BY AN ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PERSISTENT AREA OF SUBTLE TROUGHING LINGERS
EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ALONG WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2
INCHES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION IS ALLOWING FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KEYS WATERS. THUS
FAR...ALL ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AWAY FROM THE ISLAND CHAIN.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHILE THE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD TOWARDS
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS TO BECOME IDEAL FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. THESE INGREDIENTS JUSTIFY AT LEAST MID CHANCE
POPS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE NO CHANGES...BUT MAY HAVE TO RAISE POPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARDS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
AS A RESULT...LOCAL WINDS HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED OUT OF THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS KEYS WATERS
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OUTER AND WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE IN
THE MORNING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON AS ISLAND
CUMULUS CLOUD LINES BUILD NEAR OR DIRECTLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
CONCEIVABLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1882...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 94 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 10TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 132 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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