Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 100320
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
920 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD OVER LA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT A LIGHT FREEZE WITH TEMPS 30-32
POSSIBLE N OF I-10...WITH MID/UPPER 3OS ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON THE COAST. ONGOING FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...NO CHANGES TO TIMING OF ENDING OF SCA
ACROSS THE N MARINE ZONES...KEEPING SCA FOR THE 20-60NM MARINE
ZONES OFF OF CAMERON TO THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA. LOW WATER
ADVISORY ALLOW TO EXPIRE AS WELL...AS HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND
THE DIMINISHED WINDS ARE RETURNING THE WATER LEVELS BACK TO
NORMAL.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BECOME NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW DURING WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS SINKS INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE GULF...WHICH
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COUPLED WITH A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE AS THE UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO EASE OUT TO THE EAST...HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

THE WARMING WILL ACCELERATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE REGION FALLS
WITHIN FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME BETWEEN A LOW
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  THE WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA OR
PERHAPS LIMP TWD THE COAST THU NIGHT BEFORE SUBSEQUENTLY WASHING
OUT. A MORE NOTABLE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA ON
SAT...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH PACIFIC ENERGY
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND MON.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME FOR A
SMALL INCREASE IN POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON INTO THE LOW END CHANCE
RANGE.

13

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION. WHILE
LOW WATER CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ALONG THE COAST...THEY
CONTINUE WITHIN THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS AS INDICATED BY RECENT
OBSERVATIONS OVER SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES. THESE SITES ARE
CURRENTLY AT OR JUST BEYOND THE TIME PF PREDICTED LOW TIDE...THUS
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH TIDAL LEVELS CLIMBING ABOVE
-1.0 FT EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BRIEF BOUT OF
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING SUNDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  32  58  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  36  60  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  37  57  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  37  63  51  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ452-
     455-470.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...08


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