Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 300508
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE LOW CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AT KLCH...SO FOLLOWED SUIT BY JUST
CARRYING A TEMPO MVFR. DID HOLD ONTO MVFR TEMPO IFR AT KAEX...BUT
REMOVED THE LOWER VSBY. OTHER CHANGES FROM THE 00Z FCST WERE
MINIMAL...BUT DID ADD A PROB30 GROUP AT THE I-10 TERMINALS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


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