Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 281716
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1216 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...Modest ridging and drier air through the
column in the wake of yesterday`s shortwave trof will limit any
convective potential today. Maintaining no more than scattered cu
about the area through the afternoon yielding VFR. Will hold onto
VCTS at the terminals of AEX, LFT and ARA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1027 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

UPDATE...
Atmosphere was worked over pretty good by MCS from last night.
The 28/12z upper air sounding from KLCH shows a much drier and
more stable air mass...with PWAT now down to around 1 inch
compared to 1.9 inches at the same time yesterday. Upper air
analysis also showing height rises across the region as upper
level low over the plains opens up and moves off to the northeast.
Therefore, have removed pops for the remainder of the morning
hours. Made a slight adjustment downward for pops this afternoon.
GPS-MET data shows better moisture from roughly KAEX-KLFT and
eastward. Therefore, scattered chance over that area and isolated
elsewhere.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the
morning, however scattered storms will occur this afternoon. Lower
vis and ceilings will be possible in any storm. Generally light south
winds will occur through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Atmosphere finally settling down a bit after an active 24 hour
period which saw a pair of convective complexes affect the region,
especially interior East TX which saw some impressive rainfall
totals along with reports of severe weather. Robust southerly
winds in the wake of yesterday afternoon/evening convection that
saw wind gusts of 40-50KT over the NW Gulf are also diminishing
along with the trailing stratiform rain.

Upper trof axis just west of the Sabine River early this morning
is progged to slowly lift out to the NE today, but will provide
support for scattered mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Weak ridging aloft and high pressure prevailing at
the surface will result in decreasing rain chances the rest of the
weekend and into early next week, with isolated and mainly
diurnally driven activity expected. Temperatures are expected to
be seasonal, with highs in the mid/upper 80s, and lows around 70.

The ridge is forecast to break down mid to late week as another
SW CONUS trof ejects eastward, bringing elevated rain chances back
into the picture. Though becoming more divergent toward the end of
the week, the global models depict some degree of phasing with a
northern stream trof, resulting in a deeper longwave trof that may
send a front through the area on Friday in time to dry us out for
the weekend.

13

MARINE...
Moderate to at times strong and gusty onshore winds will continue
early this morning in the wake of the decaying thunderstorm
activity that moved through the coastal waters yesterday. Winds
will decrease by sunrise, with a light to occasionally moderate
onshore flow prevailing through the holiday weekend and into the
upcoming week as high pressure builds westward over the northern
Gulf.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  70  88  70 /  40  20  20  10
LCH  84  71  87  71 /  20  20  20  10
LFT  87  72  88  72 /  30  20  20  10
BPT  86  73  87  71 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



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