Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 050139
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
839 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER LAND AND WILL GO AHEAD AND
REMOVE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. AGAIN...WITH A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS HANGING AROUND...COULD BE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND TRY TO MOVE INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY INLAND ACROSS SE TX/C LA...KEEPING THE THREAT
OF THIS THRU 01Z FOR AEX. ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...PATCHY
FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THUS TEMPO MVFR VSBY FROM
09-13Z FOR ALL SITES. FOR SAT...REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH VCSH
BEGINNING AT 14-15Z...WITH PROB30 FOR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND DAYTIME
HEATING IS AGAIN LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN
BEING DIURNAL IN NATURE EXPECT COVERAGE TO DWINDLE WITH SUNSET AND
LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER POPS INCREASE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST AS
MORE NOCTURNAL GULF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

NOT SEEING MANY CHANGES TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NERN GULF AND BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND CNTL CONUS RIDGING ALOFT. EXPECT
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WHILE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED POPS WERE INSERTED FOR TOMORROW NIGHT FOR THE WRN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS MODELS HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SWD INTO THE FLOW ALOFT.

AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO NEXT WEEK THE LOW ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WWD ACROSS THE SERN CONUS WHICH SHOULD HELP
BOOST RAIN CHANCES A BIT AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT SRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE NERN GULF. NO FLAGS ARE
ANTICIPATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  94  74  94 /  30  30  20  40
LCH  75  90  75  91 /  20  40  20  40
LFT  75  92  76  92 /  30  30  20  40
BPT  75  91  75  92 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07



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