Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 261459
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
959 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.UPDATE...Fog continues to burn off this morning and cu have
developed along the coast. Short term models continue to indicated
isolated to widely scattered storms this afternoon, but mainly
over Acadiana. The previous forecast remains on target and no
changes are needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
26/12Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
Patchy fog has been developing acrs the area this morning although
vsbys remain aoa 7SM at all terminals but LFT. Kept TEMPO groups
for ocnl MVFR vsby restrictions through 13-14Z with VFR conditions
to prevail thereafter. Winds will remain light and east to
northeast or vrbl with just a few isolated aftn showers possible
mainly near the Acadiana terminals. Although patchy fog is
possible again late tonight, confidence too low to include in TAFs
attm.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017/

SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is located this early morning from Lake Michigan down
to northwest Texas. Air mass ahead of this system and across the
forecast area is unseasonably warm and humid. Upper air analysis
and water vapor imagery shows an upper level circulation that was
over the Gulf South as moved eastward to the Northeast Gulf and
Florida Panhandle region. Meanwhile, an elongated upper level
ridge is noted from the Western Gulf of Mexico up into the
forecast area. This is keeping a plume of tropical East Pacific
moisture streaming up from Northern Old Mexico into Central Texas
and away from the forecast area. With a little bit more of ridging
aloft, nocturnal shower activity has been less than the past
couple of nights, with just a few small showers right off the
immediate lower Acadiana coast.

Rua

DISCUSSION...
The hot and humid days with muggy nights will persist through
Wednesday as no real change is noted in the immediate sensible
weather for the forecast area. This will also mean a few showers
or storms will be possible during the afternoon into early evening
hours from daytime heating. The best chance and coverage will be
over Lower Acadiana as that area will be located further away from
the elongated ridge aloft.

A weak cold front will struggle to move down into the forecast
area on Thursday...with not much more than a wind shift from
east-southeast to north-northeast. With weak surface convergence
and ridging aloft, just a few showers can be expected with the
frontal passage.

The center of the surface high behind the front will pivot from
the Northern Plains to the Eastern Great Lakes on Friday into
Saturday...with ridge building down into the forecast area and the
northeast flow bringing in a bit more of a drier continental air
mass to provide some slightly cooler night and less humid days
from later Friday into early Sunday.

This high pressure system will move further east on Sunday to the
New England states and then further off the coast. This will allow
a gradual return flow off the Gulf to develop with an increase in
humidity and slight chance of showers for Sunday afternoon into
Monday.

Rua

MARINE...
Rather weak pressure pattern will keep mainly light winds and low
seas through Wednesday. A weak cold front will move into the
coastal waters on Thursday, with winds becoming offshore, but
staying rather light. A somewhat cooler and drier air mass will
arrive over the coastal waters on Friday into Saturday, as high
pressure ridges down from the Great Lakes. The result will be an
increase in offshore flow with building seas. Small Craft Exercise
Caution or Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible for
portions of the coastal waters on Friday through Saturday.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  70  91  71 /  20  10  20  20
LCH  91  73  91  73 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  90  73  90  73 /  30  20  20  10
BPT  90  71  90  73 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05


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