Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 221708

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1208 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.AVIATION...Low pressure aloft will maintain considerable shower
and thunderstorm activity across the forecast area through the
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR is still expected to prevail while winds
remain light.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1011 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

An upper level low across southern Louisiana and the adjacent
northwest Gulf of Mexico will gradually move west today. High
moisture profiles remain in place for the region with PWAT values
over 2 inches and Mean RH from surface to 50H over 75 percent.
With daytime heating, high moisture values, and weakness aloft,
expect a good bit of scattered showers and thunderstorms to reform
across the forecast area this afternoon. Current forecast is
mainly on track and no changes to the grids at this time.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 554 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

AVIATION...Scattered showers and storms are moving inland from
the coast this morning. This convection can be expected to produce
lower vis and ceilings. Storms are also expected to linger through
the period for the I-10 corridor terminals. Winds will generally
be light and onshore today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

The latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows currently centered
over the southeast LA coast, while GOES 16 experimental TPW and
00Z soundings around the area show precip water values around 1.9
to 2 inches. Not surprisingly, the regional radar mosaic shows
sctd showers and tstms developing along the coast and over the
coastal waters early this morning. Meanwhile, weak high pres
continues to ridge over the southeastern US and northern Gulf of
Mexico resulting in very light/near calm winds acrs the area.


The upper low will continue to retrograde over the northwest Gulf
coast through Sunday. Increased instability and lift associated
with the low will allow sctd showers and tstms to develop over
the area this morning, especially along and south of I-10. Convection
will increase some during the aftn as activity spreads inland.
Showers and storms are expected to remain generally sctd today,
but with precip water around 2 inches, storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy downpours and high rain rates which could
result in localized flood problems. Showers and tstms will
decrease during the evening with the loss of daytime heating, then
develop again on Sunday with sctd to numerous showers and storms
expected. Daytime temperatures today and Sunday will be a few
degrees cooler than the past few days with aftn highs expected to
range from the upper 80s to lower 90s, and will be dependent on
shower/cloud coverage.

By Monday, rain chcs begin to dwindle as the upper trough weakens
and shears out and upper ridging begins to build back over the
area. Ridging aloft looks to more or less remain over the region
through the week, resulting in just a slight chc of showers or
storms each day as deeper moisture gets pushed east of the region.
However, this also means daytime temperatures will warm back into
the lower to middle 90s, with corresponding aftn heat index
values ranging from 102 to 107 through the latter part of the week.


Light south to southwest winds and low seas will prevail for the
next several days as high pres remains over the Gulf of Mexico.
Lower pres aloft will move westward today through Sunday, helping
to enhance shower and tstm chcs over the area, with coverage
expected to be highest this morning and again late tonight
into early Sunday morning. Shower and tstm chcs will diminish by
Monday with limited rain chcs remaining through the week as high
pres in the mid and upper levels builds back over the area.



AEX  92  75  92  75 /  50  20  60  30
LCH  89  78  90  78 /  50  20  60  20
LFT  90  77  90  77 /  50  20  60  20
BPT  89  77  90  76 /  50  30  50  20




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