Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 241127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
527 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

MVFR stratus deck has developed ahead of an approaching cold front
this morning. While southerly winds have remained elevated enough
to prevent widespread fog development, KLFT and KARA have been
experiencing IFR/TEMPO LIFR visibility and ceiling restrictions.
The potential for these restrictions will continue through 16Z

MVFR ceilings will remain in place across the region through this
morning before improving to VFR later this afternoon. Winds will
begin out of the south and shift to the southwest ahead of the
approaching cold front. The front is forecast to pass
KAEX/KBPT/KLCH by 03Z tonight and reach KARA/KLFT by 06Z. Behind
the front will be clear skies and northerly winds through the end
of the forecast period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

Wx map shows deepening sfc low over the Central Plains with the
cold front across NW AR/SE OK, NC TX moving southeast. Over our
region, modest SE winds have continued offshore and inland over SE
TX/C and SW LA, limiting any marine fog development to a low
cloud base. Where the winds are still light over SC LA,
intermittent patchy to areas of fog/low ceilings. Best chance of
fog development will be near daybreak if the winds let up,
otherwise, not expecting nearly the coverage we had yesterday

Story today will be near record highs with the southwest flow and
prefrontal compressional warming. Expecting lower to possibly mid
80s along and north of I-10. Record highs today are as follows:

AEX: 83 in 2011
BPT: 90 in 1906 (Record high for February)
LCH: 84 in 1906
LFT: 81 in 2011
ARA: 80 in 2011

The stronger cold front will move through the region late this
evening into Saturday morning. With limited moisture, only going
with 20% over South Central Louisiana, less further west. Behind
the front, temperatures will return to normal values for Saturday
afternoon and Sunday morning with no precipitation.

Cool spell ends quick. By Sunday afternoon, highs rise back into
the 70s and hampered a bit by the expected increasing clouds with
the first of a few upper level disturbances.

Timing of these upper level disturbances have become increasing
difficult as all guidance after 3 days have be incredibly
inconsistent from run to run the last couple of days, including
GFS/ECMWF and most blended guidance. So, our best educated
estimate is the first upper level disturbance bringing the best
chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. As
we stay in the usually unsettled southwest flow aloft, another
weaker disturbance will give a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday, with higher chances on Wednesday as the next front passes
through. Whats more probable is that temperatures will continue
to be 10-15 degrees above normal Monday through Wednesday, until
the next cold frontal passage late Wednesday. Confidence expected
to significantly improve for Lundi and Mardi Gras parades over the
weekend as we get closer to the event.


Elevated onshore flow will continue this morning as low pressure deepens
over the Southern Plains. The onshore flow will diminish by this afternoon
an evening as a cold front approaches the area. Strong offshore flow
will develop Friday night into Saturday morning in the wake of the
front, with winds gradually diminishing through the day Saturday.
High pressure will move east through the weekend with onshore flow
returning and strengthening Sunday into Monday as low pressure deepens
over the southern Plains once again. Chances of showers and thunderstorms
return by Sunday evening, with the best chances on Monday and
Wednesday of next week.



AEX  83  46  63  39 /  10  10   0   0
LCH  80  50  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
LFT  80  50  66  42 /  10  20   0   0
BPT  80  50  67  47 /  10  10   0   0


GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CST this morning for



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