Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 281507
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1007 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Main forecast issue will be POPs and rainfall. 12Z KLCH and KSHV
soundings show a moist adiabatic profile with PWATs above 2
inches. While the environment is certainly favorable for
unorganized convection...two weak surface troughs over NW Gulf may
provide focus for heavier rain amounts. One trough is offshore
form High Island and the other offshore from SE Louisiana.
Therefore...will maintain highest POPs for coastal areas. Am not
as confident in forecast POPs further inland...especially over
central Louisiana. However...given the forecast instability...am
reluctant to make significant changes at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  73  91  75 /  50  30  30  20
LCH  87  75  88  76 /  70  50  60  30
LFT  88  75  88  76 /  60  50  50  20
BPT  87  75  87  75 /  70  50  60  40

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04



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