Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 230455
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND NOT MENTIONED IN
THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S - SW TO NEAR CALM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL
BE DYING OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS HEATING IS LOST. EVEN LESS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH NO VCTS IN TAFS NEEDED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO THE
AIRMASS, WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS DEW POINTS TREND DRIER AND WINDS WEAKEN. AFTERNOON
TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN CLIMO DESPITE INCREASING CIRRUS IN
RESPONSE TO A BROAD WESTERN UPPER TROF.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE, HELPED ALONG BY AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP LATE NEXT WEEK ON TEMPS WITH THE GFS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN FILTERING IN COOLER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH A
POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE EURO IS SLOWER ON THE UPPER TROF
WITH A AXIS PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT, ABOUT 36 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  93  74  94  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  75  93  74  93  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  73  95  73  98  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  75  94  74  94  78 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$






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