Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 250900
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
400 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Current sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the central
Gulf ridging nwd across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South...while
a low pressure system was noted over the TX/OK Panhandles. Water
vapor imagery shows a general wrly flow aloft in place over the
wrn Gulf Region, while weak troffing is seen over the wrn CONUS
with multiple weak ripples noted within the flow. Satellite
imagery/sfc obs show mostly clear skies over the forecast area
with just a little cirrus noted...and temps were running about 10
degrees above this time yesterday morning. Regional 88Ds were
PPINE.

No significant changes to inherited grids/zones this morning. As
sfc hi continues pushing ewd across the Gulf, srly return flow
will become more established across the region, allowing low-level
moisture to begin ramping up. Still expecting dry weather to
persist through today though as forecast soundings indicate dry
conditions/weak capping lingering aloft. More seasonal temps are
also expected today with maxes topping out in the lower 80s. Will
also have to keep an eye on elevated srly winds mainly across the
TX zones thanks to a tightening pressure gradient and stronger
winds aloft mixing down during the late morning/early afternoon...
for now, don`t see a need for any advisories but this could
change as we get further into the day.

Wrn CONUS trof is progged to deepen into tonight which will help
turn the mid-level flow to a more swrly direction, introducing
increasing Gulf moisture across the region. A strong shortwave is
progged to push through the Four Corners Region and into the srn
Plains through Wednesday, taking on a slight negative tilt as it
moves into the wrn Gulf Region by Wednesday night...this system
will also push its attendant sfc frontal boundary through the
forecast area by sunrise Thursday. Expect scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop along/ahead of the front,
especially from I-10 nwd where best moisture/lift is progged.
Will also have to watch severe weather potential for the nrn areas
as forecast soundings indicate best shear/lapse rates. All precip
should move out of the area by Thursday morning, allowing for a
dry day and night...although the front is progged to quickly wash
out after departing the area and return flow will then re-develop
behind it.

A few showers/storms look possible across the nrn zones on Friday
mainly due to the increased moisture and heating with no
significant disturbances noted in a swrly flow aloft. Better rain
chances return for the weekend as the next storm system
aloft/associated sfc front get organized over the wrn states and
push ewd. Looking at another cooldown for early next week with
morning lows in the 50s both Monday/Tuesday...while highs on
Monday will mostly stay in the lower 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Caution headlines have been introduced for today across the wrn
outer waters thanks to the tightening gradient with low pressure
deepening over the srn Plains. Expect these conditions to spread
over the remainder of the coastal waters into tonight with an SCA
possibly needed beginning overnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  84  54 /   0  10  30  70
LCH  81  72  82  58 /   0  10  20  50
LFT  83  72  85  63 /   0  10  20  50
BPT  82  73  84  56 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION from 7 AM CDT this morning through
     this evening for GMZ470.

&&

$$

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