Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 310424

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1124 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.AVIATION...Outflow boundary advancing south across central
Louisiana at this time associated with earlier strong convection
over north Louisiana north. Feature may be able to kick up a few
additional showers in the vicinity of AEX and holding on to VCSH
at this terminal. Otherwise expecting VFR to hold at all terminals
through tonight and Sunday. Should see limited afternoon shower
and thunderstorm activity.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

Forecast in great shape this evening, with the only minor change
being a small PoP for the rest of the evening over east central
LA where outflows from convection farther north may help trigger
additional development.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

AVIATION...Radar showing no more than a few showers over the
region and these will be dissipating shortly. VFR ahead for
tonight and Sunday with a just a few afternoon showers and
thunderstorms returning.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

High pressure will continue to build over the Gulf Coast resulting
in lower rainfall chances and warmer temperatures through the
middle of next week. Rainfall chances will increase by the end of
the weak and the high weakens and shifts to the west.



Short Term...Today through Monday
The 593 dam 500 hPa ridge currently centered over northern Florida
will build westward over the northern Gulf through the day on
Monday. The combination of large scale subsidence and PWAT values
ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches, between the 50th and 75th
percentiles respectively for this time of year, will result in
rainfall chances near climatology for the rest of the weekend.
The sea breeze will serve as the main forcing mechanism and peak
rainfall chances during the afternoon before decreasing shortly
after sunset.

Long Term...Tuesday through Sunday
Model guidance is indicating that the 500 hPa ridge will weaken
and shift westward starting during the middle portion of next
week. In addition to the weakening ridge, latest model and
ensemble guidance is indicating some form of tropical activity
could be moving westward across the Bay of Campeche late Thursday
through Saturday. This will result in increased moisture in the
Gulf with PWAT values forecast to increase back to 2 inches by
late next week. This and the weakness in the height fields suggest
an increased potential for rainfall by the Friday and Saturday
timeframe. However, for now keep the POPs at chance until model
guidance comes into better agreement on the evolution of the


High pressure will continue over the far northern Gulf through
the middle of next week. A weak onshore flow is forecast. Isolated
late night and early morning showers and thunderstorms are
expected. Winds and seas are forecast to increase by the end of
next week as an area of low pressure moves across the southern
Gulf of Mexico.



AEX  74  94  75  94 /  20  30  10  30
LCH  77  92  78  92 /  10  30  10  30
LFT  76  93  77  93 /  20  40  10  40
BPT  77  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  30


.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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