Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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497
FXUS64 KLCH 162254
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
454 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Overrunning moisture continues to bring areas of wintry precip to
the area this aftn. Many observation sites have reported snow this
aftn, with snow now the main precip type north of I-10, while a
mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is occurring south of I-10.
Minor accumulations have been reported this aftn, with the
greatest amounts acrs central Louisiana where amounts of one half
to nearly one inch have fallen.

Very cold and windy conditions also continue as the 1045 MB high
continues to build southward into the region. Temperatures this
aftn have been generally steady, ranging from the middle 20s north
to around 30 south. Meanwhile, wind chills are in the teens to
lower 20s.

24

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Near term (tonight through Friday)...Wintry precip will begin to
taper off this evening from north to south as drier air filters in
behind a large upper trough. Additional accumulations through the
remainder of the winter event will be minor, generally less than
a half inch of snow or sleet, and less than a tenth of an inch of
ice. Overall impacts from winter weather will be mainly to bridges
and elevated sfcs, where a few slick spots have already been
developing. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through
9 PM for the northern part of the area, and through midnight for
the southern part.

The other concern for tonight will be the brutally cold
temperatures and dangerous wind chills. Temperatures will continue
to drop through the evening, and a long duration hard freeze is
expected acrs the area from tonight into Wednesday morning.
Overnight lows are expected to reach the middle teens acrs central
and western LA, upper teens acrs the Lakes Region of southeast TX
and near 20 along the I-10 corridor with lower 20s closer to the
coast. In addition, winds will remain moderate to strong
overnight, and this will result in wind chills dropping into the
single digits acrs the northern zones, wind chills around 10
degrees along the I-10 corridor.

Strong cold air advection will limit temperature rises
Wednesday with hard freeze conditions expected to persist through
late morning. Aftn highs will only reach the middle 30s despite
abundant sunshine. A hard freeze is expected again Wednesday
night into Thursday morning as the center of the sfc high settles
over the lower MS valley. The chilly temperatures will stick
around again on Thursday with aftn highs only climbing into the
lower to middle 40s.

The sfc high will finally begin to move east through the latter
part of the week. As winds become more southeasterly, this will
lead to a rather welcome warming trend going into the weekend
with highs on Friday and Saturday in the 50s and 60s,
respectively.

24

Long term (Saturday through Tuesday)...High pressure over the
southeast will allow moisture to return to deep south Texas late
Friday into Saturday morning. As the sfc high moves further to the
east and off the US coast... winds will swing around to the
southeast early Saturday morning. This will allow the dew points
to climb and the moisture from the gulf to spill into the
northwest gulf region. Therefore looking at the warmup continuing
with afternoon high temperatures near 70 on Saturday and Sunday.
Rains return Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front moving out of
Texas. This next front is not of Canadian origin therefore the
air behind this front will not be as extreme as we have had over
the last several weeks. The front will move through Sunday evening
with morning lows on Monday in the mid to upper 40s. Rains ending
during the overnight hours. Most of next week will be dry as
temperatures will moderate.

19

&&

.MARINE...
Arctic high pres building southward over the region will result
in strong northerly winds and very rough seas tonight into
Wednesday. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible through
Wednesday morning. The strong winds will also cause low water
levels on coastal waterways and navigation channels, with tides
running between 1 to 2 feet below predicted levels during times of
low tide.

Winds will begin to diminish by Wednesday night as the sfc high
settles over the region. Winds will veer to the east on Thursday
and southeast by Friday as the high moves east of the area. A
light to moderate onshore flow is expected to prevail through the
weekend.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  15  35  17  43 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  20  36  21  44 /  30   0   0   0
LFT  19  34  20  43 /  30   0   0   0
BPT  20  36  23  44 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST Wednesday
     for LAZ041-042-052>055-073-074.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LAZ033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LAZ052>055-073-074.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Wednesday
     for LAZ041-073-074.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday
     for LAZ028-029-032-033.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for
     LAZ027>032.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CST
     Wednesday for LAZ028-029-031>033.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM CST
     Wednesday for LAZ027-030-031.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Wednesday for LAZ027-030.

     Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday
     for LAZ043>045.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ041>045.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST Wednesday
     for LAZ042>045-052>055.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST Wednesday
     for TXZ201-215-216-261-262.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ201-
     215-216-261-262.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ215.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Wednesday
     for TXZ201-215-216-261-262.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ180-
     259-260.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM CST
     Wednesday for TXZ180-259-260.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Wednesday for TXZ180-259-260.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ216.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for GMZ470-472-475.

     Low Water Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for GMZ430-432-435.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ430-432-435-
     450-452-455.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution Wednesday morning for GMZ450-452-
     455.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...19



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