Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 290939
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
239 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER
OVER THE AREA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY
AT THIS TIME. A SINGLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY
THIS EVENING AND ITS REMNANTS ARE MOVING EAST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING AN IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA...MAINLY OVER HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES.
LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND
UPWARD LIFT TO PRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUNDING AT
WILDHORSE IS SHOWING LIMITED CAPE OF ABOUT 100-300 J/KG THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECTING THE STORMS OVER THE JARBIDGE
WILDERNESS TO BE WET. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...STORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE DRY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 25 MPH IN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DIP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE TONIGHT
PERIOD. BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS
MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME 5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THERE
MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM INSTABILITY NEAR COLD FRONT.
THEN THE REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THEN SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME MODELS HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEAR NORTHERN BORDER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT KEPT GHOST
POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME HIGH BASED AFTERNOON CUMULUS
AND PERIODS OF CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY NORTH AND EAST
OF KEKO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN PORTIONS
OF ELKO COUNTY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY WET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF ELKO COUNTY...LIKE JARBIDGE...BUT SOUTH OF THIS
THEY WILL BE DRY.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF THE
FIRE DISTRICT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY...BEING ALONG A WENDOVER-RUBY LAKE-MOUNT CALLAGHAN
LINE BY 5 PM SATURDAY. WITH THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...FIRE
ZONE 457 COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT MEETING
THE 3 HOUR CRITERIA MAY BE DIFFICULT. WILL PASS THIS ONTO THE NEXT SHIFT.

BY SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
QUIET WITH NO REAL CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/90/90/86





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