Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 251634
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
934 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017

SYNOPSIS...Active weather expected through mid-week as monsoon
moisture will combine with a stalled trough along the California
coast. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected with the
potential for flash flooding as some of these storms could produce
heavy rainfall especially this afternoon. Drier air returns
towards the end of the week and will diminish chances for
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...AMD NOT SKED for KWMC due to observation phone
line comms issues until further notice.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 308 AM /

SHORT TERM...Today and Wednesday. Isolated showers are present
across southern and central Nevada this morning. Additional
showers and storms are expected this afternoon as moisture remains
in place with a trough stalled to our west, providing instability
and lift for storms. More instability will move into the region
today and a few storms could be strong to maybe even isolated
severe. CAPE values will range from 300-600 J/kg with 35-45 kts of
shear. This is enough for the potential for gusty winds and small
hail with the strongest storms. In addition to strong
thunderstorms, flooding will be an issue again. With slow storm
motion and higher PW values, storms could produce heavy rainfall
which could lead to flash flooding conditions, especially over
burn scars. As such the flash flood watch remains active through
this evening.

Wednesday looks to be one of the more active days for severe
weather that we have seen lately. A 60 kt jet core will remain
present over the area coupled with an area of divergence along
with CAPE values almost double from Tuesday, with values ranging
from 600 to 1000 J/kg. In addition 40-50 kts of shear will help to
organize convection and promote tilted updrafts. This combination
will present a threat for gusty winds and small to even
marginally severe hail with the strongest storms. SPC currently
has the entire region under a marginal risk for severe weather on
Wednesday. Flash flooding concerns look to continue into Wednesday
and an evaluation as to whether or not to extend the watch will
be handled by the next shift.

LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday. Remnant moisture and
weak instability under a gradually building ridge will result in
a chance of daily thunderstorm activity over portions of central
and eastern NV through the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures
will bounce back to above normal levels Thursday through Monday
with the ridging. Models are in general agreement with strong high
pressure over the cwa next Monday, with highs in the upper 90s to
low 100s. Trended temps up slightly into early next week.

AVIATION...A cutoff low currently over northern California will
provide elevated lift and shear to most of northern and central NV
today which will combine with a very moist air mass, ultimately
leading to thunderstorms over much of the region. Moderate to
heavy rains are possible in thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, which may also result periods of reduced visibilities and
gusty winds.

FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday across all zones as monsoon
moisture and a storm system combine to produce potentially heavy
rainfall for northeastern Nevada. Most if not all thunderstorms
will be wet as a combination of higher PW have advected into the
region along with a moistening of the atmosphere from yesterday`s
activity. Flash flooding and strong to severe storms will be
possible and could extend into Wednesday. Additionally, monitoring
of recent burn scars for the potential of flash flooding and/or
debris flows in and around recent burn scars will be monitored
closely. This active pattern will diminish towards the end of the
week.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Humboldt County-
Northeastern Nye County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander
County and Northern Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby
Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-
Southeastern Elko County-Southern Lander County and Southern
Eureka County-Southwestern Elko County-White Pine County.

&&

$$

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