Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 262211
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
211 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW INCREASES BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATION
VALLEYS REACHING NEAR 60 ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST 500MB SHORTWAVE...
THUS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IN MOST
AREAS. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...TROF AXIS MOVES ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. NORTHERN THIRD
OF NEVADA MAYBE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLDER AIRMASS DROPPING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA UNDER DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST IS COMPLICATED AND MESSY, FROM A FORECASTER
PERSPECTIVE, AS MODELS STRUGGLE HOW TO HANDLE A LARGE CUTOFF LOW IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CUTOFF LOW, FORECASTER`S WOE.

ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SLIP INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, SPREADING BANDS OR RAIN AND SNOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. INCREASED POP COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HUMBOLDT/ELKO COUNTIES, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME THANKSGIVING RETURN TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN NOCTORNAL TIMING AND COLDER ROAD
TEMPERATURES ALLOWING SOME SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. ONE OF THOSE RARE
CASES WHEN AN IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR HOLIDAY
TRAVEL, DESPITE IT FALLING ON A WEEKEND.

SUNDAY...FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA, WITH A NOTABLY
COOLER AIRMASS RETURNING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, AS LARGE CUTOFF LOW IN THE PACIFIC
INCHES CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA. ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
ELKO/HUMBOLDT COUNTIES AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTH, AND A MILDER
AIRMASS ARRIVES.

MONDAY...REDUCED RAIN/SNOW COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. AS A MATTER OF
FACT, 12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE STILL MUCH DRIER THAN MY DRIER POP
GRIDS INDICATE. MODELS NOW KEEP CUTOFF LOW WELL TO THE WEST OF
NEVADA ON MONDAY, WITH NEVADA RESIDING IN A MOSTLY DRY WARM SECTOR.
INCREASED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S, BUT KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

SO THE QUESTION BECOMES WHEN AND HOW FAST THE PACIFIC CUTOFF MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW
ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME, BUT EXACTLY WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
WILL FALL IS ANYONE`S, OR ANY MODEL`S, GUESS. GFS TENDS TO BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND FAST IN THESE SITUATIONS, SO TRENDED THE GRIDS
TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF. ECMWF KEEPS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER NE
NEVADA TUESDAY FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER, FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY FEEL MUCH OF
THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF EJECTING CUTOFF LOW KEEPING THE SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE MOST
VALLEY FLOORS. BT

 &&

.AVIATION...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 00Z FRI. BKN/OVC MID/HIGH
CLOUD DECKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. BT
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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