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000
FXUS65 KLKN 210918
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
218 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS TOMORROW WITH LESS WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BIG CLOSED LOW DIVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PAC NW DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM. TODAY WE ARE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PROVIDE A SURGE OF WARMTH WITH MANY AREAS APPROACHING OR EVEN
EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES. STRONG WINDS DO MOVE IN ALOFT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP...BUT BIGGEST CONCERN IS HUMBOLDT
COUNTY WHICH IS THE ONLY PLACE WHERE MIXED LAYER WINDS APPEAR TO
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. LAST SHIFT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE IT. STRONGEST WINDS DEFINITELY LOOK
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY. WINDS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PICK DUST UP OFF OF THE CARSON SINK AND OTHER DRY LAKE
BEDS IN WESTERN NEVADA SO KEPT BLOWIND DUST IN THE FORECAST AS
WELL. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...MODELS DON`T INDICATE MUCH.
FORCING IS DECENT BUT MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE. KEPT SOME
ISOLATED POPS GOING WHERE FORCING AND INSTABILITY (WHAT THERE IS
OF IT) COINCIDE IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.

COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. COOLER AIR WILL
OBVIOUSLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT...BUT WHILE FGEN IS PRETTY
STRONG...AGAIN MOISTURE IS SCARCE SO ONLY HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY BUT NOT AS BAD AS TODAY. PROBABLY NOT MUCH BLOWING DUST
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THIS. RCM

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONUS FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...SENDING INTERMITTENT IMPULSES OF ENERGY THROUGH
THE LKN CWFA. IT APPEARS THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SEVERAL BREEZY
DAYS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS REVEALED IN THE MODELS TO SOME
DEGREE EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...QPF WILL BE
MINIMAL AND IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS...MUCH LESS RAIN SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN DAY. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE LOBE IS PROGGED FOR THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEPTH OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENSION
HOWEVER CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW DIFFERS AS MUCH AS 300
MILES ON THURSDAY. FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
UNDERGO A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GIVING WAY TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO RE-CENTER OVER WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS
AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 KTS AT KWMC. BLDU MAY IMPACT
KWMC AND KEKO AFTER 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR
TODAY...WITH WORST CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL
NEVADA. RH`S WILL INCREASE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IS LOW. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

&&

$$

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