Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 230523
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
Issued 928 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014
Sprawling area of high pressure will continue to build into the
region overnight. This will result in clear skies, light winds, and
the potential for good radiational cooling overnight. Current NWS
and Kentucky Mesonet observations show temperatures cooling into the
lower to middle 50s as of 900 PM EDT. Temperatures are expected to
cool into the upper 40s to the lower 50s by midnight and then
continue to fall into the late overnight.
Minimum temperature forecasts suggests readings in the upper 30s to
around 40 across our far northern counties and into the northern
counties of the Bluegrass region. Further south, we`ll likely see a
bit of a temperature gradient set up. Lows across southern KY look
to cool into the 45-48 degree range.
Some patchy fog will be possible in the typical low-lying and fog
prone regions. Latest data suggests that our river valley locations
will have the best potential for patchy fog.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014
In the wake of a 500mb trough that has moved southeast of the
Tennessee Valley, strong high pressure of Canadian origin will
settle southeast and is forecast to lie right over Cincinnati
Tuesday morning. Subsidence and a very dry airmass over the Ohio
Valley will bring clear, practically cloud-free skies through at
least Wednesday morning.
Early Tuesday will be chilly, the coolest morning so far this fall
season. Near ideal radiational cooling conditions will be in place
with clear skies, very light winds and low dewpoints. Some of our
very coldest locations may reach the upper 30s. But, overall, lows
will range from the lower to upper 40s.
Ridging centered over Ohio Tuesday and Tuesday night will provide a
period of very light northeast winds. Nearly calm winds early
Tuesday will only become northeasterly at around 5 to 8 mph during
the afternoon. Tuesday`s highs will not warm dramatically, but will
reach the lower 70s.
Under clear skies, lows early Wednesday will fall into the upper 40s
to around 50.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014
Quiet autumn weather will be the rule for the long term as we enjoy
ridging at the surface and aloft. Rain chances will finally start to
re-enter the forecast by the tail end of the weekend into Monday as
the ridging breaks down and Gulf moisture attempts to flow northward.
High temperatures each day will be in the upper 70s to around 80.
Lows each morning will vary widely between rural and urban areas,
but will generally be centered around the 50s.
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014
Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected this period. A light
northeasterly wind will return during the day as high pressure
remains to our northeast.