Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 041939
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
239 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT THAT IS
STALLED JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND IS BEING REINFORCED BY AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING SOUTH FROM THE CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED AND CROSSED NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MCV AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN SHIELD IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS IS ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE NEAR CENTRAL MISSOURI
FOR THE EVENING HOURS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND INCREASE
POPS IF THEY CAN FOCUS INTO A LINE/CLUSTER.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (OVERNIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS/OKLAHOMA IN
CONCERT WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND PROPOGATING ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE
MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES...MASS FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
UTILIZED THE BULLSEYE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
WYOMING WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AID IN REINTENSIFYING THE LOW LEVEL JET
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...BUT THE MAIN HAZARD APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM TOTAL QPF FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM 1 INCH IN THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA TO AROUND 3
INCHES FROM INTERSTATE 70 AND POINTS SOUTH. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR WITH TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS I STATED
YESTERDAY...THE GROUND HAS RECOVERED SOME FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL
OF JUNE AND EARLY JULY AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.
THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE INCHES OVER
24 HOURS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN OZARKS. HAVE COORDINATED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR 12Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS THIER ATTENTION TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE ENSUES.

FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRAVEL FAR AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE
REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KUIN: ONGOING SH/TS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE OVERNIGHT
BUT THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN NEAR KUIN BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER NORTH.

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU: TWO PERIODS OF SH/TS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST PERIOD WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DIURNAL HEATING INVOF A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
THE NEXT PERIOD WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO TOMORROW.
THESE SH/TS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THE TIMING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
WILL PROBABLY NOT BEGIN UNTIL AFTER 03Z AT KCOU.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: TWO PERIODS OF SH/TS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THE FIRST PERIOD WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING INVOF A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
WITH SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THE NEXT PERIOD WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT AND LAST INTO TOMORROW. THESE SH/TS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE TIMING FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT BEGIN UNTIL
AFTER 06Z IN THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     72  82  71  83 /  70  90  80  40
QUINCY          67  80  67  82 /  60  60  50  10
COLUMBIA        70  80  69  83 /  80  80  60  20
JEFFERSON CITY  71  80  70  84 /  90  90  70  20
SALEM           70  82  70  80 /  60  90  90  50
FARMINGTON      71  80  70  83 /  70  90  90  50

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-
     FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-
     MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES
     MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE.
     GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR BOND IL-CLINTON IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE
     IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



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