Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 122118
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
318 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 310 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

A very dry airmass and mixing up to 900mb has caused dewpoints to
fall into the single digits across the area this afternoon.  A
surface ridge currently over western Missouri will move east across
the area this evening and then the current westerly surface winds
will back southerly by morning.  There will be a slight chance of
rain over northeast Missouri into west central Illinois on Wednesday
morning/early afternoon as a weak shortwave moves southeast across
the Midwest.  The attendant cold front will move south across the
region by tomorrow afternoon bringing an reinforcing shot of cold
air to the region. Lows tonight will be similar to what they were
this morning. Highs tomorrow will be warmer than today as 850mb
temperatures climb to around 0C, and surface winds will turn out
of the southwest ahead of the front.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Colder temperatures will then move into the area for late week as
850mb temperatures drop to between -5 and -10C in the
northwesterly flow aloft according to the latest runs of the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM. These days are still expected to be dry, however
these models are still advertising that there will be a pattern
change by the weekend as the eastern longwave trough moves east
which allows the northwesterly upper flow to transition to
southwesterly. This will allow for warm and moist air to advect
northward into the Midwest over the weekend. At this point, will
keep above normal temperatures over the weekend with a chance of
rain over the southern half of the area on Sunday. The best chance
of rain with a chance of mixed precipitation will be on Sunday
night over the southern half of the CWA. Do have some concerns
with this forecast as the timing and placing of QPF amongst the
models differs. Dry weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday as
a surface high moves across the area.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Dry and VFR ceilings will persist through Wednesday afternoon. A
cold front will approach north central and northeast Missouri
early Wednesday morning. Winds will be out of the southwest ahead
of the cold front then veer to the northwest behind the cold front
with gusty winds on Wednesday afternoon. A period of low level
wind shear possible at all TAF sites during frontal passage.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Dry and VFR ceilings will persist through
Wednesday afternoon. Winds overnight will be out of the southwest
ahead of the front but will veer to the northwest behind the
front with gusty winds on Wednesday afternoon. A period of low
level wind shear possible at the site during frontal passage.

Kelly

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Heightened fire danger is expected again over parts of southeast
Missouri on Wednesday. This area is experiencing severe drought with
fuel moistures at the RAWS stations in southeast Missouri dropping
below 10 percent this afternoon.  Forecast minimum relative humidity
will fall to between 25-30 percent during the afternoon and
sustained westerly winds will be between 12-15 mph.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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