Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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769
FXUS66 KMFR 241631
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
931 AM PDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...Rain and wind continue this morning as the front pushes
onshore and begins to sweep across the forecast area. Snow levels
of around 4000 feet looks good, aside from an area of lower snow
levels near Mount Shasta City. Cameras and spotter reports
indicate that snow is making its way down to 3000 feet or so
there, so have adjusted the forecast to account for this. Do not
expect additional amounts to reach advisory criteria, but
snow could be a nuisance along Interstate 5 this morning. Wind
and winter weather advisories remain in place, and are expected to
expire this afternoon. For more details on these and the rest of
the forecast, see the previous discussion below. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z TAF CYCLE...Gusty southwest winds are expected to
continue for a few more hours at North Bend and along the coast,
mainly south of Cape Blanco before decreasing as the strong front
moves onshore. Gusty south winds will also be a concern inland over
portions of northern California and the East Side. Low level wind
shear is possible at the terminals west of the Cascades with
turbulence expected near and over terrain from the Cascades eastward.
Ceilings will vary from VFR to MVFR with MVFR predominant along the
coast and in the Shasta region. Expect conditions to improve a bit
this afternoon with ceilings becoming mostly VFR, though scattered
showers may occasionally lower ceilings to MVFR. -Wright/Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 900 AM PDT Friday 24 March 2017...Winds have
decreased behind a front. But, seas will remain steep into Saturday
afternoon due to a combination of moderate westerly swell and fresh
short period southwest swell. Seas will be highest in the outer
waters and near Cape Blanco with seas just a foot or two below
advisory criteria in the near shore waters. Improvement will be
brief with the next front likely to produce advisory winds late
Saturday night then arrive early Sunday morning with another round
of very steep seas and possible gales. -DW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 452 AM PDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

Updated Aviation Discussion.

DISCUSSION...Broad band of precipitation is over the area with
the back edge well offshore on the satellite images.
Precipitation rates will increase through the morning as the area
of rapidly cooling cloud tops indicating increased vertical motion
move inland. A colder air mass moves in behind the front,
bringing cooler than -25C 500 mb temps into the region that will
bring possible isolated thunderstorms into the coastal waters this
morning, spreading inland to the Cascades this afternoon. Showers
and chances of thunderstorms drop of later in the evening as both
the cold air mass aloft moves east and the surface heat component
drops off post sunset. a weak upper level ridge builds in behind
the exiting front Saturday, bringing a break in the precipitation
and clearing Saturday afternoon. There will still be a cold air
mass over the region and temps will not be as warm as previous
days, but with the ever increasing sun angles will still feel
warm. The next system moves onto the coast early Sunday morning,
moving slowly through the region, mostly because nature doesn`t
think we have been soggy enough this winter and thinks we need
another drink from the fire hydrant. Sven

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for
     ORZ029-030.
     Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ030-031.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for
     ORZ027-028.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for
     CAZ082-083.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for
     CAZ080.
     Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ081.
     Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ085.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 PM PDT this
     afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/SBN/MAP



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