Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 291923
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
223 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...High
Isolated showers will wind down this afternoon in the far north as
the main trough axis heads eastward. Could see an isolated
shower/storm in the southwest late this afternoon as a very weak
upper level wave slides through. This activity should dissipate by
evening as daytime heating is lost.
Skies will then turn mostly clear this evening with mostly sunny
skies expected Memorial Day under high pressure. Temperatures
tomorrow will be above average once again, reaching the lower 80s
most places. It will probably be a little cooler near Lake Michigan
in the afternoon, as the light winds will allow a lake breeze to
develop and move inland.
.TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Forecast confidence is medium.
A familiar pattern returns. Just like this past week, a slow
moving mid level trough and it`s reflection in the lower levels
will slowly drift east toward the Upper Midwest. The first in what
should be a series of short waves rotates into the area later
Monday night. That will come with some elevated warm advection as
well, brining chances of rain mainly west. We should see showers
and storms become more widespread by Tuesday afternoon as a warm
front lifts north into southern Wisconsin. The cold front/sfc
trough will also be approaching the Mississippi river by late
afternoon on Tuesday. The degree of instability will depend on how
much heating we can get, and clouds may dampen that prospect.
Deep layer shear is not impressive, but we might still be able to
produce some strong to possibly severe storms. They just may stay
The sfc trough comes through late Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. The timing of the sfc trough and associated mid level
short wave is likely a bit too early to take advantage of diurnal
heating trends. If the system slows down by about 6-12 hours, we
could be in a similar situation to yesterday, Saturday.
Look for the rain to end from west to east either late in the day
on Wednesday or by Wednesday evening.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.
High pressure should take over and bring the area some pleasant
conditions with temps in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.
Another low pressure system is expected to move across the area
next weekend. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show it, so chance of
showers and storms return.
VFR conditions should prevail through Monday. Will see a few showers
in the far north wind down this afternoon with an isolated
shower/storm possible in the west late in the afternoon. It looks
dry then overnight through the day Monday under high pressure.
There will be a few gusts of 20 to 25 knots through late this
afternoon. High pressure will then bring light winds tonight and
TONIGHT/Monday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday...Davis