Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 252319 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
619 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00Z issuance...Sky and vsby ok. VFR conditions prevail overnight
with winds light to calm. /10


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...High pressure builds both aloft
and at the surface across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico
heading into Friday, maintaining mostly clear skies while
reestablishing onshore flow across the central Gulf coast. As a
result, will see temperatures return to near or slightly above
seasonal levels and dewpoints creep back up into the mid 60`s.
Expect lows tonight to dip into the upper 50`s inland and low to
mid 60`s along the coast. High temps on Friday will reach the mid
to upper 80`s inland and low to mid 80`s along the coast. /49

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...An upper level
ridge of high pressure will continue to build across the Gulf of
Mexico through Sunday, before gradually shifting east toward the
eastern Gulf and adjacent FL Peninsula by late Sunday night.
A deep layer dry airmass and plentiful subsidence on the northern
periphery of this feature will support keeping a dry forecast
Friday night through Saturday night. A more zonal flow aloft will
begin to develop over the region Sunday into Sunday night as the
upper ridge axis begins to shift eastward. A surface front will
also begin to sag southward across the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valley region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Increasing deep layer moisture and lift along and ahead of the
boundary will result in an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms across our area, especially over interior locations
going into Sunday night. Low level dewpoints will be on the
increase through the weekend, resulting in very warm and humid
conditions. Lows Friday night will range in the lower to mid 60s
over the interior to the upper 60s to lower 70s near the coast.
Lows Saturday and Sunday nights will range from 70-75 over most
interior locations with mid to upper 70s near the immediate coast.
Highs Saturday and Sunday will range from the upper 80s to lower
90s over the interior, with mid 80s along the coast. /21

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...A moist zonal to southwest
flow pattern aloft will prevail across the central Gulf Coast
region Monday through Thursday, while a weak frontal boundary
slowly sags from central and northern portions of MS/AL Monday and
Tuesday to near the coast Wednesday into Thursday. The presence of
deep layer moisture and associated precipitable water values
between 1.75" and 2" each day, combined with the southward moving
boundary and a series of shortwave troughs moving overhead will
support the development of scattered to potentially numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day throughout the extended period.
For now we have the highest POPs around 60% over interior portions
of the area Sunday night into Monday, with the 30-50% coverage
Tuesday through Thursday. Warm and humid conditions otherwise
prevail through the period with morning lows in the upper 60s to
mid 70s and daytime highs mostly in the 80s. /21

MARINE...High pressure builds over the western Atlantic and eastern
Gulf heading into Friday. As a result, a light to moderate onshore
flow redevelops across the local marine area through the weekend and
into next week. Daily sea breeze circulations may enhance this
onshore flow each afternoon along near shore waters and over area
bays and sounds. A weak frontal boundary then approaches from the
north and stalls along the coast Monday, supporting shower and
thunderstorm activity Monday into the middle of next week. /49




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