Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 200941
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
441 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MID TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE
LA/MS BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TO NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER
BY 12Z MON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRES OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS
PATTERN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE STRETCHING NORTH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AL. WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECT VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR EASTER
SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
COOLER NEAR THE COAST. FOR TONIGHT WITH DEEP RIDGING CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION MOST INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MIDDLE 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
ADDING A FEW DEGREES TO SOME INLAND AREAS. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND THEN CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE
LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALLS JUST OFFSHORE.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES FIRST OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THEN
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING
1.25-1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.  DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND OTHER THAN A MODEST
WARM LAYER NEAR 775 MB...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5
IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER AND 6.5 ABOVE THIS PORTION IN THE 700-500
MB LAYER.  THIS RESULTS IN 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 1300 J/KG FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENING WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SO EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TUESDAY THEN SMALL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAY SEE
A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO AND ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE AN
UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS.  THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE DISSIPATES WHILE A RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER TROF WEAKENS WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY LEAVING A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION
WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MAINTAINS A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE A
DRY FORECAST CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES AND MAY SEE ISOLATED SEA BREEZE INITIATED CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WIND FLOW
AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT MOSTLY EAST AND DIMINISH TO
4 TO 7 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SHIFTING NORTHEAST
AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A BROAD SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND
SOUTHEAST STATES. A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON DUE MOSTLY TO AFTERNOON HEATING...SHIFTING
EAST THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT DUE TO COOL AIR DRAINAGE. A BETTER
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 FEET FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  55  77  57  80 /  00  00  05  10  30
PENSACOLA   74  58  76  59  77 /  05  00  05  10  30
DESTIN      72  58  74  60  75 /  05  00  05  05  20
EVERGREEN   74  49  80  53  80 /  00  00  05  10  50
WAYNESBORO  78  53  80  54  79 /  00  00  10  10  50
CAMDEN      76  51  79  54  79 /  00  00  05  05  50
CRESTVIEW   74  48  79  51  80 /  05  00  05  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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