Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 231706 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1210 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AT
NOONTIME. TEMP CURVE ALSO ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
10Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AXIS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CWFA AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKING EASTWARD...MOVING
FROM E TX TO NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z FRI. WITH NO RETURN OR
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MAYBE A FEW EXTRA MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE SLIGHTLY
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE REGION
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANOTHER DAY OF NORMAL HIGHS (MID TO
UPPER 70S) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW NORMAL (MID
TO UPPER 40S) GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS
TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE BY
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-WED WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES ALSO INCREASING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT THEN REBUILD SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THOUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  49  77  48  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  54  77  52  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  56  76  54  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  76  43  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  74  43  76  44  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      74  42  76  44  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  78  41  80 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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