Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 101736 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1136 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING IN SPEED TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING TO
10-15 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AND MARINE AREAS
BELOW.

UPDATE...GOOD MIXING IS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS DROPPING LOWER THAN
FORECAST FOR TODAY. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TEEN
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW UPPER SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY.
THIS BRINGS HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEEN TO LOWER 20
PERCENT RANGE. SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

FIRE WEATHER...BASED ON THE EXPECTED DRIER CONDITIONS WE HAVE SENT
AN UPDATE TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. WINDS AND ERC VALUES WILL
STILL FALL SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA.

MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THEREFORE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGINS TO
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  A SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-
WEST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GULF AS A SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO NEAR THE ARKLATEX LATE TONIGHT.  AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA SWITCH
TO A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT.  THERE IS A MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN DURING THE PERIOD BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POPS AND A
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A CLOSED LOW MOVE THROUGH AN
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS ENERGY
MAINTAINS AND SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...ULTIMATELY PUSHING A FRONT TO NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT..MAINTAINING A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FA...THEN WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND ON FRIDAY. THIS KEEPS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVEL
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S.

/16

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...PUSHING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS RESTORES SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE FA BY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
UNTIL THEN...COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA...COOLING THINS
OFF. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S COOL OFF TO THE LOWER 50S
SUNDAY. A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THEIR INTERPLAY AS THEY MOVE. THE
ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MOVING EAST OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS NOW ADVERTISING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
UPPER ENERGY AND WITH THAT...FORMING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TAKING IT EAST...WITH THE RESULT BEING A MORE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE AGAIN WENT
WITH A BLENDED APPROACH...KEEPING THE RAIN CENTERED ON MONDAY...BUT
WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THE RAIN...ADDING IN A BIT OF
THUNDER. TEMPS HAVE UNDERGONE A WARMING TREND THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...LOW TO MID 60S MONDAY.

TUESDAY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE
FA...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE FA.

/16

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDE TODAY THEN
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.  THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES THURSDAY THEN BECOMES WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ADVANCES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE WEST...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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