Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 010949
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
449 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF MS..AL AND WESTERN GA THROUGH
TONIGHT. TO THE NORTHWEST LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THAT TRACKS MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FOR TODAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY LESS
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH LESS
MECHANICAL FORCING AND SHEAR DUE MOSTLY TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
TROF THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY FORMING ALONG A
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON
SHIFTING WELL INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON AFFECTING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NEARS
FROM THE NORTHWEST ENHANCING THE LIFT MOSTLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME FRAME
THOUGH WITH LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECS AND ADJUST
DOWN FOR EXTRA CLOUDS AND CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT]...A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ON THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE. RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE STRETCH WESTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH A CONTINUED MOIST DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2 INCHES AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG TO AID IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE HAS BEEN DRAWN OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA IN THE VICINITY OF RICHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS RATHER MINIMAL THURSDAY
AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS INDICATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DIMINISHING
THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT MENTION OF
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN MID
LEVEL TROUGH. SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE
PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO LOWER 90S...AND AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 70S. /21

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE
MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
INCREASED MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH AND BECOME ISOLATED
AT BEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS LOOKING RATHER
MOIST COURTESY OF PINCHING OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST...EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
AND SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
01.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND AS MAIN UPPER TROF TO THE NORTH AND EAST CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BETTER WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
FORMING EACH DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALSO. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  72  91  75  92 /  40  30  30  10  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  76  93 /  40  30  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  79  90  78  90 /  30  30  40  20  20
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  73  94 /  30  30  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  89  71  93  71  93 /  40  40  30  20  20
CAMDEN      89  72  92  72  93 /  40  40  40  20  30
CRESTVIEW   91  70  93  72  94 /  30  30  40  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



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