Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KMOB 241728 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


18Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 609 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

12Z issuance...Continued VFR conditions expected through the


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...An upper disturbance moves over
the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the fa, weakening as it moves
through and east of an upper ridge stretching north over the Plains.
With a very dry airmass still in place over the fa, am not
anticipating any precip, just a temp increase in mid/upper level
clouds. The upper ridge slowly shifts east, building as it moves,
and bringing increased subsidence to the forecast. Temps today
moderate a bit upward from yesterday, ranging from the low to mid
80s. With subsidence from the advancing upper system weakening the
ridge over western portions of the fa, warmest temps today are
expected to be over eastern portions of the area. Overnight temps
see the affects of the increased subsidence, along with slightly
increased cloud cover tonight to bring temps warmer than last night,
but below seasonal due to the dry airmass. Lows generally in the
40s, closer to 60 along the immediate coast. /16

SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...Surface high pressure
and the dry conditions will persist across the region through Tuesday
night as an upper ridge extending northwestward over the nation`s
midsection from the Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward over the eastern
conus. This upper ridge will continue shifting eastward over the
western Atlantic and weaken through the reaminder of the short term
while an upper shortwave extending from the upper midwest to the
northwest gulf of Mexico moves over the eastern conus. A large
surface ridge extending from southwest Canada to the northeast Gulf
of Mexico early Wednesday will move off the eastern seaboard through
Wednesday night while a surface low passes well north of the region.
Over-running on the backside of the southern portion of the exiting
surface ridge will bring light isolated showers to the western half
of the forecast area on Wednesday.

High temperatures Tuesday will continue above normal, ranging from
83 to 88 degrees inland areas, with lower 80s along the coastal
sections. Lows Tuesday night will range from 49 to 55 degrees inland
areas, from 55 to 60 degrees along the coastal sections, with lower
60s at the beaches. High temperatures Wednesday will range from 78 to
83 degrees. Lows Wednesday night will range from 59 to 64 degrees
inland areas, and from 65 to 69 degrees along the immediate coastal
sections. /22

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...A larger broader upper trough
will then form over the far eastern conus and western Atlantic on
Thursday as an 80-110 knot upper level jet over the upper midwest
dives southeast. Meanwhile an upper ridge will build in from the
west over the northern gulf coast through the period. The surface
ridge off the eastern seaboard will continue moving eastward over the
western Atlantic through Thursday night while a surface low over the
northeast conus lifts northeast Over-running on the backside of the
southern portion of the exiting surface ridge will keep light
isolated showers to much of the forecast area on Thursday. Surface
high pressure will then build in from the north marking the start
of another dry period Thursday night through the weekend. This high
pressure will also bring a weak cold front in the region late in the

High temperatures ranging from 80 to 85 degrees will occur Thursday
through Sunday. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower
60s inland areas through the remainder of the week, with mid 60s
along the beaches. /22

MARINE...A weak surface high situated north of the north-central
Gulf coast will weaken even more as a weak surface boundary works
its way south over the Southeast, bringing a more organized
offshore flow. A surface ridge will build south over the Southeast
behind the boundary into mid week, then shift east to the Eastern
Seaboard. This shifts the winds from offshore to easterly through
mid week, then southeast to south into Thursday until another weak
boundary works its way south across the Southeast Thursday into
Friday, bringing a light, more diurnally driven flow to area coastal
waters. /16


FL...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.



This product is also available on the web at: is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.