Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 030504 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT THEN RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR MIDDAY THURSDAY. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT THEN RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL FORCING BELIEVE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THU WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST
AREAS...BEGINNING OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST EARLY THU MORNING THEN
SHIFTING INLAND GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY
MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KMOB...MOSTLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROF GENERALLY OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY...STRETCHING INLAND OVER MUCH OF LOWER MS BELIEVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER LOWER PARTS OF MS
STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO EXTREME WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AL FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PRECIP WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THU AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT BETTER CLOUDS FOR
MOST AREAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DISSIPATING QUICKLY IN THE EVENING DUE TO
WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY. WITH THIS PATTERN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/ECS
GUIDANCE MOSTLY DUE TO PERSISTENCE. THE BETTER CLOUDS WILL KEEP
DAYTIME TEMPS A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPTS EXPECTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 70S FOR ALL INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS THU WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 CLOSE THE COAST.
32/EE

A GENERALLY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MEANWHILE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INTACT OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE A GENERAL MOIST DEEP LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOST SHOULD DISSIPATE THURSDAY
EVENING...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED FROM LOCATIONS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9
INCHES AND THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ADVANCING
SEABREEZE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90
NEAR THE BEACHES TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED RIDGING
OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DEVELOPING WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL KEEP A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE LOOKS TO
BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH EARLY
MORNING LOWS AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S. /21

MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY. A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  93  73  93  72 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   75  91  76  91  75 /  20  30  20  40  30
DESTIN      77  91  78  89  77 /  20  30  20  40  30
EVERGREEN   70  95  70  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  30
WAYNESBORO  70  94  71  94  70 /  10  30  10  30  20
CAMDEN      69  95  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  94  70  93  71 /  20  30  20  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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