Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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508
FXUS64 KMOB 080545 AAC
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1145 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...MVFR ceilings tonight into Thursday morning, with a
brief period of IFR ceilings possible around sunrise in the wake of a
front crossing through the area tonight. Back to mainly VFR levels
by Thursday afternoon, with moderate northerly post-frontal winds
prevailing throughout the day Thursday. /49

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 933 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE...Have updated the Small Craft Advisory in the evening
package to include northern Mobile Bay, as high-res models are
trending towards strong post-frontal northerly winds of 20 to 25
knots extending farther north into the bay than originally
anticipated, starting early Thursday and potentially lasting through
Friday night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 521 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...MVFR ceilings tonight into Thursday morning, with a
brief period of IFR ceilings possible around sunrise in the wake of a
front crossing through the area tonight. Back to mainly VFR levels
by Thursday afternoon, with moderate northerly post-frontal winds
prevailing throughout the day Thursday. /49

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...The Forecast Area will continue
to see the break-up of stratus deck into the evening hours. A lobe
of energy sweeping south over the plains tonight will push a re-
enforcing front across the region later tonight through early Thursday,
bringing a return of the cloudy skies along with a small chance of
rain to mainly western-most portions of the area (the only area
seeing enough lift and moisture). Expecting the majority of the
Forecast Area to remain dry with this frontal passage though, with a
combination of too little associated lift and deep moisture. For
lows tonight, with the cool northerly flow continuing to be
re-enforced, expecting lows to range from low 40s north to near 50
along the coast. With significantly cooler air moving over the area
on Thursday, look for highs ranging from low 50s northwest to low
60s southeast and long the coast. 16/SM

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...Much cooler and
drier surface high pressure will drift east across the region through
the short term period as west-northwest to near zonal flow is expected
in the mid/upper levels. Weak energy passing aloft helps produce a
few mid/upper level clouds on Thursday night, but generally clear
skies expected thereafter. Expect a generally light north to
northeast lolvl flow through early Saturday, gradually turning more
east and perhaps even southeast at time by late Saturday night as the
surface ridge axis moves to the east of the Forecast Area. With the
winds coming around expect a slightly moistening and slowly warming
airmass by periods end. Lows Thursday night in the upper 20s inland
to mid/upper 30s at the coast, cooling slightly on Friday night with
mid/upper 20s over all of the interior and low to mid 30s all the way
down to the coast. If freezing temps make it all the way south to the
coast Friday night, it will be the first time for this to occur this
cold season, and we will monitor the trend over the next couple of
model cycles and possibly issue a Freeze Watch/Warning later tonight
or on Thursday for our immediate coastal zones. No Freeze Watch/Warnings
will be required over all interior zones as these areas have already
received their first freeze of the season. Lows moderate on Saturday
night with lows ranging from lower 30s inland to mid 40s at the
coast. Cool day on tap for Friday with highs not making it out of the
40s for most of the area, maybe around 50 or 51 degrees along the
immediate coast. Slightly warmer on Saturday afternoon with highs
ranging from the low 50s inland to mid 50s at the coast. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Sunday into Monday the
moderating temps and atmospheric moisture continue as yet another
cold front approaches and then moves east across the region. This
system will bring another chance for showers to the area, especially
on Monday and Monday night. Slightly lower rain chances Tuesday, but
increasing slightly again on Wednesday as the front stalls just
offshore and some weak energy aloft moves west to east across the
southeastern states. high temperatures mainly in the 60s through the
period. Lows Sunday night mainly in the 50s, cooling to the 40s
inland and 50s coastal Monday and Tuesday nights. 12/DS

MARINE...A light to moderate northerly flow tonight will get a
re-charge Thursday as a front crosses the Marine Area. Moderate to
strong offshore flow will follow, lasting into the weekend. A Small
Craft Advisory will be in effect for most of the Marine Area from
early Thursday morning to early Saturday morning. A shift in direction
from northerly to a general easterly the rest of the week into the
weekend will occur as strong surface high pressure moves east-
southeast across the eastern portion of the country. With another
system approaching the Marine Area at the beginning of the coming
week, onshore flow returns by Sunday and then flips back to offshore
as another front moves across area coastal waters Monday. 16/SM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 7 AM CST Saturday for
     GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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