Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 242031
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
331 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...Very little change to weather
pattern in the near term fcst period. High pressure both sfc and
aloft will persist over the fcst area. As expected...isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon...particularly over southern (especially coastal) portions
of the fcst area. These showers and storms will continue across the
region through shortly after sunset...with only a lingering isolated
shower or storm remaining possible overnight. Pretty much the same
story for tomorrow (Thursday) with diurnal afternoon convection
developing... especially over coastal and western portions (closer to
western periphery of ridge) of the fcst area as afternoon CAPE
expected to again be in the 1500-2000 J/KG range. Some storms could
be strong with gusty winds, but should generally remain below severe
limits. Low temperatures tonight ranging from the lower 70s over
interior areas to the upper 70s down near the coast. High
temperatures on Thursday ranging from the low to mid 90s over
interior locations...upper 80s to lower 90s at the coast. 12/DS

.SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...An upper ridge
oriented east-west over the interior southeastern states shifts
slightly northward to across the central eastern states through the
period. A surface ridge over the southeast states meanwhile weakens
gradually through the period but maintains a mainly easterly flow
over the forecast area. A deep layer easterly flow also prevails
which ushers in progressively drier deep layer air into the area,
with precipitable water values dropping from 1.5-2.0 inches Thursday
evening to 1.2-1.5 inches by Friday morning. Deep layer moisture
increases temporarily Friday night as an easterly eddy moves across
the region, then decreases again to 1.0-1.5 inches for Saturday and
much of Saturday night.

Other than slight chance pops near the coast where the better deep
layer moisture will tend to be located along with some low level
convergence with an occasional southeasterly flow that develops,
mostly dry conditions are expected through the period. Highs will
range from the mid 90s inland to the lower 90s closer to the coast.
Lows Thursday night will range from the upper 60s/lowers 70s inland,
with the lower values over south central Alabama, to the mid/upper
70s near the coast. /29

.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...An uncertain period follows
for the long term period, with the forecast hinging on potential
tropical development (Invest 99L) which may or may not affect the
northern Gulf coast region. All interests in the area should continue
to closely monitor this situation and not focus on specific model
solutions as these will continue to vary greatly until/if a system
forms. Please see the National Hurricane Center website at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov and our website at http://weather.gov/mob for
the latest official information regarding this system.

With such a great deal of uncertainty involved, have gone with
slight chance to chance pops on Saturday increasing to chance/good
chance pops for the remainder of the period. Highs will be in the
lower 90s on Sunday then expected to trend to mostly in the upper 80s
by later in the period. Lows will typically range from the mid 70s
inland to the upper 70s near the coast. /29

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will continue over the northern Gulf of
Mexico through early Saturday and then begin to weaken by Sunday
into the early part of next week as low pressure (Invest 99L)
possibly moves into the eastern Gulf from the east toward the end of
the fcst period. As this occurs a light to moderate east to
southeast flow will develop and gradually increase in strength over
the weekend. We will have to monitor the progress and possible
development of this low pressure area (Invest 99L) for several more
days before we have a firm idea of where it may go and to what
extent it develops. At this time any possible effects from this
system...if they occur...are still beyond the fcst period. In the
meantime...little change in seas is expected through the period with
seas generally 2 to 4 feet (or less). winds and seas will of course
be higher near isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the fcst period. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  91  73  92 /  30  40  10  20
Pensacola   77  91  75  90 /  30  30  10  20
Destin      78  90  76  90 /  30  20  10  10
Evergreen   73  93  69  95 /  20  20  10  10
Waynesboro  74  93  73  95 /  10  30  10  10
Camden      73  93  71  95 /  10  20  10  10
Crestview   73  93  69  94 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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