Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 281906
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
306 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Saturday)...Quite capped this afternoon
so far, but some convection might be able to break the cap mainly
over and near the plateau this afternoon/evening.  Will have slight
chance PoPs Northern Plateau this evening.  We will continue to be
on the west side of the upper ridge tomorrow with the front well to
our west and north.  Model soundings for tomorrow look rather dry,
and it is unclear if low levels will mix out too much for the
model`s significant instability to be realized and convection to
form. However, given uncertainty will carry a slight chance PoP all
areas for the afternoon. It will be quite hot tomorrow, with records
being threatened. Will make only minor adjustments to MAV temps.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)...The surface ridge
of high pressure moves east on Sunday resulting in slightly
cooler, but still much above normal, temperatures on Sunday. A
strong surface low will trek towards the Great Lakes region
tightening the pressure gradient across the area resulting in
periods of breezy conditions Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning. There is the potential for a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, but due to lack of any
substantial forcing across the warm sector, any convection should
be isolated and generally across the higher terrain. A trailing
cold front will move east across the forecast area late Sunday
night and Monday morning resulting in likely showers and
thunderstorms. Because of the late night/early morning timing of
frontal passage, instability appears low limiting the overall
severe weather threat. However, there will be a marginal wind risk
because of a strong southerly 850mb jet with winds of 50- 60kt.

Cooler and more seasonable temperatures are expected early in the
week as zonal flow returns. A quick shortwave will provide a focus
for lift and a chance of rain showers on Wednesday. A stronger
trough deepens across the region on Thursday bringing a chance of
more widespread precipitation along with a brief cool down.
Confidence is lower late in the week with differing solutions in
how to handle the evolution of the trough.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             66  90  67  86 /   0  20  10  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  65  90  67  85 /  10  20  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       65  90  67  85 /  10  20  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              59  90  62  85 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

LW/JB



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