Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 030736
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
336 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN ACTIVE NIGHT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE RISK FOR FLOODING
CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH INTO THE MS
AND TN VALLEYS. A COMPLEX OF STORMS JUST SOUTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT THAT LIES ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE TN BORDER AND STRETCHING
FROM TN WEST TO OK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND PRODUCE
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE AFTER ABOUT
12Z BUT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FROM ABOUT 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.2 TO
ABOUT 1.5 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES FOR ONE
HOUR IN THE NE. THREE HOURLY AMOUNTS ARE FROM ABOUT 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SO
WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST EARLY BUT INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS
CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT ALL AREAS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. HIGHS
AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS AND RAIN AND STAY MOSTLY IN THE
70S. TONIGHT CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.  THE AREA WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE STORM TRACK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STREAM OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS DURING THE PRIOR WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE THE SATURATED GROUND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  BRIEF...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AROUND THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME...LIMITING CONVECTION TO MAINLY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  68  81  69 /  80  60  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  67  80  66 /  80  60  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  67  80  66 /  80  60  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              77  65  77  64 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/MJB



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