Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 220955

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
355 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms can be expected to develop
again this afternoon and evening, as well as for Saturday. The
coverage of these showers and thunderstorms will likely be in the
same areas where we saw them yesterday. Cloud coverage in central
Idaho will be the deciding factor on how strong the storms do get,
though brief heavy rain and gusty winds will likely be the larger
impacts. Simulated cloud products do indicate that the cloud
coverage for the early part of today will be less extensive than
yesterday, so the potential for more coverage and stronger
thunderstorms today is possible.

Temperatures for the next couple of days will remain warm, with
highs in the mid 70s to low 80s for western Montana and
north-central Idaho. Southwestern Montana and the valleys of
Lemhi county in Idaho can expect slightly cooler temperatures in
the upper 50s and low 60s.

An unsettled weather pattern will continue next week. Naturally
models do not agree on the details and timing systems, but
confidence is good that a low pressure system will affect the
region Monday or Tuesday. There is potential for half an inch to
an inch of rain to affect somewhere in central western Montana
and/or central Idaho. Most solutions bring some, but very little
rain to the parched northwest Montana, and it does not look like
that area will make up its recent precipitation deficit anytime


.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and evening in much of the same areas as yesterday,
generally along and south of I-90 from KMLP to KMSO to KHLN.
Convection is expected to be begin to develop around 22/2000Z.
Brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and occasional lightning will be
the main impacts from these storms. KBTM and KSMN will be the air
terminals that are more likely to see these impacts from the
thunderstorms. KMSO, will once again be on the northwestern edge
of development and could again see gusty outflow winds. Northwest
Montana will be spared of any showers, however gusty ENE winds can
be expected this afternoon.



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