Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 172023
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
222 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...A marginally unstable atmosphere will linger into
this evening over mainly southwest Montana and Lemhi County.

A weather disturbance is expected to move across north central
Idaho and west central/southwest Montana late tonight and Thursday
morning producing a few more showers.

A splitting and weakening trough of low pressure should shift
across the northern Rockies Thursday afternoon and evening. Again,
the best energy and moisture should be over southwest Montana and
Lemhi County.

The air mass will cool Thursday night into Friday, with some
drying and stabilization also expected. This should translate into
a quite cool night in the valleys Friday night.

A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build over north
central Idaho and western Montana Saturday into Monday. This means
mostly clear skies, cool nights and quite warm afternoons (with
above normal day time temperatures). The exception may be Lemhi
County or the southern Clearwaters where some moisture from a
Great Basin weather system may creep northward by Monday.

In the longer term, recent model runs are trending towards a
wetter and cooler pattern by mid to end of next week. However,
there is still run to run inconsistencies and timing, so at this
point we have only made a modest adjustment towards a return of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers over central Idaho and southwest Montana may reach
KSMN and KBTM this afternoon and early evening, but no significant
impacts to aviation are expected. Showers will redevelop in the
same areas by Thursday morning, with a better chance of rain
reaching both terminals. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions will
continue, along with light winds.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



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