Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 242024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
224 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures today are running 3 to 6 degrees warmer
than yesterday throughout the valleys and 5 to 9 degrees warmer
across the higher terrain under a gorgeous sunny sky. We expect
another seasonably cool night that will be just a bit warmer than
this morning which will help us achieve another day of similar
warming on Sunday (anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
today). Some afternoon breeziness is also expected each day,
peaking between 4pm and 7pm.

Monday is expected to be the warmest day in most locations with
the atmosphere supporting readings a few degrees warmer than on
Sunday due to excellent mixing. This, despite the fact that clouds
and moisture will be on the increase throughout the day with a
chance for showers and thunderstorms entering the picture during
the afternoon. But the best chances are still expected after 5pm
MDT/4pm PDT when increasing moisture, with monsoonal origins,
interacts with an unstable atmosphere from daytime heating along
with the passing of a mid-level wave. The interaction of these
three factors will not only produce widespread showers and
thunderstorms, but could result in a few stronger thunderstorms
with gusty winds, frequent lightning and small hail. The monsoonal
origins of this moisture and its trek along the west coast should
also promote an atmosphere favorable for heavy rain with some of
these thunderstorms. Finally, convective activity is likely to
continue into the night, even after sunset and may still be on
going come sunrise on Tuesday along the Continental Divide. But
much weaker storms are expected during the overnight hours.

The rest of next week will be under the influence of two upper
level low pressure systems, which should generally keep Idaho and
Montana under westerly to northwesterly flow aloft. While the
path of neither upper level system will pass directly over the
Northern Rockies, a series of cold front are expected to at least
clip the region providing chances for showers and thunderstorms
nearly each afternoon. Temperatures should remain at or very close
to normal through much of next week with perhaps a brief warm-up
possible by next weekend.


.AVIATION...Aside from some fair weather cumulus clouds and brief
showers along the Continental Divide this afternoon, the weather
conditions throughout the Northern Rockies will be quite nice for
flight over the next 24 hours.



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