Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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297
FXUS61 KOKX 182051
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continues to move farther offshore and gradually
strengthens through tonight. Meanwhile weak high pressure will
build from the west tonight into Thursday, and settle overhead
Thursday night into early Friday. A weakening frontal system will
approach Friday night into Saturday, and then dissipate.
Deepening low pressure will approach from the southwest from
Sunday into Monday while a gradually strengthening high builds
into the Canadian Maritimes. The low will continue to approach
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Weak surface troughing and cyclonic flow will maintain overcast
skies and lingering light rain/drizzle through the night.
Cloudy conditions and elevated winds on the backside of the
departing low will inhibit stronger radiational cooling, with low
temperatures in the upper 20s to upper 30s expected to be around
10-15 degrees above climatological normals. A brief period of
light freezing drizzle will be possible across interior areas
overnight, but precipitation chances will rapidly decrease by
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
With the low pressure moving farther offshore and high pressure
building in, flow will gradually turn more northwesterly advecting
drier air into the area and allowing the stratus to finally
erode. Sunny conditions are expected by late morning, with subtle
downslope flow aiding in temperatures rising into the mid 40s to
lower 50s, around 10 degrees above climatological normals. Apart
from any light drizzle in the morning, the remainder of the day
should be dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure system will move northeastward into the Great Lakes
region on Friday, pushing a weakening frontal system across the area
Friday night into early Saturday. Precipitation amounts will be
light with this system. High temperatures Friday will be in the low
to mid 40s. Lows Friday night will be in the mid to upper 30s.

A weak boundary will remain overhead for Saturday, but ridging
overhead should allow for dry conditions across most areas through
the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 40s to
lower 50s and mid to upper 40s on Sunday. Lows Saturday and Sunday
night will generally be in the mid to upper 30s.

A stronger frontal system approaches late Sunday into early next
week. At this time it does look like this system will bring to the
area a soaking rain Sunday into Monday. There is the potential of 1
to 2 inches of rainfall with this system from Sunday afternoon into
Monday night. The low will slowly pull away from the area by
the middle of next week.

Temperatures Monday through the middle of the week will remain above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Offshore low pressure continues to work away from the terminals
through tonight, while high pressure works in from the west.

The theme will be gradual improvement through tonight as
widespread IFR/MVFR cigs late this afternoon/early this evening
lift to VFR overnight. Areas of fog possible tonight.

N-NE winds this afternoon will gradually back to the N-NW through
tonight. Speeds around 10 kt or less expected, a bit higher at
the city terminals.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving
flight categories.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving
flight categories.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving
flight categories.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving
flight categories.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving
flight categories.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving
flight categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday-Friday...VFR.
.Friday night...Chance of MVFR or lower in -RA.
.Saturday-Saturday night...VFR.
.Sunday...Chance of MVFR of lower in -RA, with best chance at
CT/Long Island Terminals.
.Monday...Chance of IFR with heavy rain and strong E-NE winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing northerly-northwesterly flow between the departing
surface low and building high pressure will maintain 5+ ft seas on
the ocean waters through the night. Gusts to 25kt are expected
tonight, but will gradually decrease by morning with seas slowly
subsiding by Thursday evening.

Below small craft advisory conditions Friday through early Sunday.
Saturday. Small craft advisory conditions are possible on the ocean
waters Sunday afternoon, and for all waters on Monday, with the
approach of the next storm. Gales may be possible on the ocean
Monday afternoon/evening, and ocean seas could reach 6-11 ft Sunday
night into early next week as an easterly fetch sets up.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As a frontal system moves slowly across the hydrologic service area
Sunday into the middle of next week it could bring a significant
rainfall of one to two inches. There is the potential for some minor
flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MD/
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...//
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MD/



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