Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KOKX 282002
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
402 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM
NE PA AND CENTRAL NJ AND HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL...SO HAVE
FCST LIKELY POP FOR THIS EVENING FOR NYC METRO AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTHERN PA CONFIRM EARLIER
THINKING THAT ENHANCED LIFT FROM COMBO OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND H7 FRONTOGENESIS
SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY INLAND SECTIONS THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POP THERE. PRECIP SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NYC...LOWER 40S IN
SURROUNDING AREAS...AND UPPER 30S INLAND AND ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY
EXCEPT OUT EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY TO THE
LOWER AND MID 50S.

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
LATE FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL TROUGHINESS NOTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. DETAILS IN
HANDLING OF VARIOUS UPPER SHORTWAVES UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...AND AT LEAST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...DRY WX EXPECTED SATURDAY.

UNSETTLED...WET WX POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY.

DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE AND WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY APPROACHING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STEADIER RAIN
IS OVER THE CITY TERMINALS AND ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST. ANY RAIN
COMES TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS TO
START...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. WINDS THEN CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET TONIGHT...THEN ENE FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT SHOULD
BUILD OCEAN SEAS TO MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY FRI.
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ISSUED AS FLOW SHOULD BE STEADY...WITH
GUSTS AOA 25 KT NOT EXPECTED. OCEAN SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE N AND
NW BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY UP TO 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS CARRY
UNCERTAINTY...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.