Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 242129
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
529 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the first half of this week.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is forecast to track north and pass
east of the Carolinas on Wednesday before getting kicked out to
the east by an approaching cold front. The front will move
through Wednesday night into early Thursday. High pressure
builds in for Thursday and Friday. A weak low pressure area
moves through the region Saturday with high pressure returning
for Sunday. Refer to the latest National Hurricane Center
advisories for the official forecast on Maria.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A sea breeze was moving north through Long Island and coastal
Connecticut and into northeastern New Jersey, with temperatures
behind the sea breeze front falling quickly by as much as 10
degrees in an hour or two. This has posed a forecasting
challenge for hourly temperatures and dew points. updated
through this evening for temperatures, dew points, winds, and
gusts, mainly using the HRRR which seems to be best at capturing
the sea breeze movement and temperature drops.

Another very warm day across the region with record highs being
met at multiple locations, ranging from the 80s at the coast to
the lower 90s across the interior. Skies will be mostly clear
tonight, however, fog development is expected late tonight. The
fog should be shallow/patchy in nature in most spots as
moisture will be confined to near the surface. The exception
here will be out east where onshore flow will lead to somewhat
great/deeper sfc-based moisture, and low stratus from the outer
circulation of the remnants of Jose may even sneak into eastern
Long Island and SE CT overnight.

A high rip current risk will continue at the ocean beaches
through this evening due to increasing southerly swells from
Maria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Another sunny/warm day expected on Mon, though not quite as
warm as today with onshore flow more prevalent. High temps will
range from the upper 70s/lower 80s near the coast, to mid 80s
most elsewhere, to the upper 80s well inland, still above MOS
guidance.

With another night of onshore flow, low stratus and fog should
be more prevalent as well, mainly inland NW of NYC, and also
across eastern CT/Long Island. Low temps should be near or
slightly cooler than those expected tonight, in the upper 50s
and 60s.

Swells from distant Hurricane Maria will continue to produce
a high rip current risk and high surf.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong upper ridge and surface high will be remaining across
the region Tuesday as Hurricane Maria moves east of the
Carolinas. The ridge slowly weakens Tuesday night into Wednesday
as a shortwave digs into the upper midwest and Great Lakes
region. The increasing westerly flow with the trough will steer
Maria eastward from the Carolinas, and into the Atlantic,
Wednesday night through the end of the week. There will be
little moisture from the tropical cyclone and the cold front
moving into the region and will have mainly slight chance to low
chance probabilities. With a continuation of the easterly flow
Tuesday into Wednesday, low clouds and fog, with drizzle, will
be possible. Will include for Tuesday morning only at this time.
Refer to the latest advisories from the National Hurricane
Center for the official forecast on Maria.

Anomalous warmth will remain across the region until the cold
frontal passage, when temperatures return to more seasonal
levels.

The forecast becomes more uncertain after Thursday as a re-
enforcing shortwave moves through the longwave trough and sends
another cold front into the region Saturday. At that time
temperatures may fall below seasonal normals.

Due to long period swells from Maria, there is likely to be a
high rip current risk through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains across the region through the TAF period.

VFR through this evening. There is the potential for MVFR/IFR
outside of the city terminals late tonight into early Monday.
Most terminals outside the city are forecast to develop MVFR fog
overnight into early Monday morning but for KSWF and KGON, IFR
is fog is forecast with KGON also having some IFR stratus. A
return to VFR is expected for the non-city terminals Monday
morning which will remain for all terminals during the day
Monday.

Winds mainly N-NE at 5-10 kt will give way to sea breezes
gradually for all terminals except KSWF for the rest of the
afternoon. Winds return to being light and variable under 10 kt
tonight through early Monday morning and then increase to 5-10
kt out of the E-SE Monday morning into Monday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday afternoon...VFR.
.Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible with
areas of fog and drizzle forecast late Monday night into early
Tuesday morning outside city terminals.
.Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible
with patchy fog and a low chance of showers.
.Wednesday night-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible with
isolated to scattered shower activity.
.Thursday night-Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Long period swells are producing 5-ft swells on the outer
portion of the coastal waters E of Fire Island Inlet. Expect
5+ ft swells to reach all ocean waters by this evening. SCA for
hazardous seas in effect thru Tue, and those seas should be with
us into late week.

Long period swells will continue to produce hazardous seas on
the ocean waters at least through the forecast period, Friday.

On the non ocean waters winds and seas will remain below
advisory levels until Thursday. Gusty winds develop behind a
cold frontal passage Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Northwest small craft gusts will be possible late Thursday,
Thursday night and into Friday across all the forecast waters at
that time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems anticipated.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Monday for NYZ080-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Tuesday
     for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Tuesday
     for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman
NEAR TERM...Goodman/MET
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Goodman/MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
CLIMATE...


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