Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 262338
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO
TONIGHT...

AT 20Z THE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LATEST 3-HRLY
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING A NEAR TERM TRACK BETWEEN MONTAUK POINT
AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AT 650-800 MB ARE KEEPING
PRIMARY P-TYPE ACROSS NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF SOUTHERN
CT RAIN...WITH OCNL SLEET IN BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. ONLY AREAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NE
NJ...INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND FAR
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH SOME SPOTTERS ALREADY HAVING REPORTED 7-8 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY...WILL CONTINUE MAX SNOWFALL AMTS TO 8-12
INCHES WELL INLAND AS ADDITIONAL BANDING TO THE SOUTH PIVOTS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A 45-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT AND AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PLUS GRAVITY WAVE DUCTING TO AID
IN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR S
NEW LONDON AND E SUFFOLK COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH EXPECTED...PEAKING DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES SE OF MONTAUK AND G-WAVE DUCT POTENTIAL ALSO PEAKS. ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES S OF LONG ISLAND WILL TRACK NEWD TNGT. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSES ON THANKSGIVING.

MAINLY MVFR WITH -RA AND BR ACROSS THE REGION. WRN SHIELD OF PCPN
ACROSS ERN PA WILL ATTEMPT TO COME THRU THIS EVE. CHANGE TO SNOW
LIKELY IN THE BAND...ASSUMING IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

THEREAFTER IT APPEARS MVFR CIGS LINGER...PERHAPS BOUNCING FROM
TIME TO TIME TO VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR -SHSN
THANKSGIVING WITH THE WEAK UPR SYS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TNGT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. STRONGEST
WINDS KISP AND KGON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TNGT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH TNGT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH POSSIBLE -SHSN OF FLURRIES.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM AROUND 950
MB TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS AND GRAVITY WAVES TO AID IN
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...EXPECT A PD OF SUSTAINED GALE FORCE
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND BRIEF GUSTS
TO STORM FORCE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ON ALL OTHER WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. GALES COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET
UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE PRESENT ON ALL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN END.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRIDAY. SEAS COULD REACH
MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ON MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25
KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES...HIGHEST EAST...EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY W/N OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW
CT...LITTLE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR ON EAST...RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT
SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR
INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

2 TO 4 FT SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LI SOUND AND
THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED
SPLASH-OVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073-
     176.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104-
     106>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





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