Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 251237
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
537 AM PDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Today and Thursday will be warm with scattered afternoon and early
evening showers and thunderstorms. The arrival of a cold front
Thursday night will bring cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday
along with a good chance for showers over the Idaho Panhandle and
the mountainous portions of Washington. Look for a gradual warming
trend over the Memorial Day weekend with upper 60s to mid 70s
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: We are in between systems today as the low that plagued us
last weekend is going to move from southern Saskatchewan into
eastern Montana and our next weather system starts moving down the
British Columbia coast. Some mid and high level clouds ahead of
the next weather system are moving across our region this morning.
But there should be plenty of opportunity for us to see the sun at
times today. The HRRR and RAP show some very isolated showers
popping up this morning across the northern Cascade mountains and
across the higher terrain of the ID panhandle. Have decreased the
chances in the valleys this morning and kept the mention in the
mountains. Expect showers to increase in areal coverage this
afternoon with typical spring showers that pop up and down across
the region. Models are showing an area of instability this
afternoon stretching from Ferry Co east into the ID Panhandle, and
have thus added thunder potential this afternoon through about 7pm
this evening.

Tonight through Thursday Night: Winds will increase ahead of the
upper level low moving down the BC coast across the east slopes of
the Cascades. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph with occasional gusts
up to 30 mph will start this evening and continue through the
night and Thursday. Then Thursday late afternoon as the cold front
starts to move across the Cascades winds will peak and spread into
the Columbia Basin. Westerly winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30-35 mph will be likely. Tonight showers will decrease early in
the evening with a dry overnight period. Thursday showers will
increase through the day as the front approaches. Showers will
mainly be confined to the northern WA and ID mountains. Models are
not showing a lot of good moisture associated with the front. This
is not going to be the good soaker we experienced last weekend. It
looks like the best precip chances with the front Thursday night
will mainly be north of I-90.

Temperatures today and tonight will be right around average for
this time of the year. Thursday and Thursday night temperatures
are expected to be 3 to 6 degrees below average. /Nisbet

Friday and Saturday: Over the last couple of model runs, the
trough for the weekend has become more fractured and progressive.
It still looks like the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington
will have a good shot at showers Friday and again on Saturday.
However, the latest GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models no longer
stall a deep low over Washington and Oregon this weekend. This is
not only good news for folks with outdoor plans, but the more
progressive trough and increased mid-level flow is good news for
burn scars as well. Convective cells Friday afternoon and Saturday
afternoon should have decent eastward movement limiting the flash
flood potential. Friday and Saturday will be seasonably chilly
with high temperatures a good 8 to 10 degrees below average.

Sunday and Monday: A broad upper level trough is forecast Sunday
and Monday. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that a
shortwave on Sunday will enhance showers over the Panhandle and
northeast Washington once again with the best chances during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Depending on the timing of the
shortwave Sunday and Monday, we may see fewer showers Monday but
more wind. The increasing northwest pressure gradient behind
Sunday`s shortwave may have the potential to produce breezy winds
through the Okanogan Valley into the Columbia Basin.

Tuesday: High pressure is forecast to build over the region
Tuesday. If this pans out, we will be looking at a mainly dry day
with warmer temperatures. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: fog has set up across northern Spokane, Deer Park,
Sandpoint and KCOE. Expect the fog to dissipate quickly this
morning as the sun rises...btwn 15-16Z. A threat of
showers/t-storms develops this afternoon toward the NE WA/ID
Panhandle mountains, but the risk is very small around TAF sites.
Breezy conditions develop late this afternoon and evening across
Cascade gaps. Some of the strongest winds are expected near KEAT,
with possible gusts up to 25kts. This evening the surface may
decouple from the winds aloft, perhaps allowing for some LLWS
about 1-2kft AGL, with possible speeds around 30kts. Confidence is
low at this time but it will be monitored, especially near
MWH/PUW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        71  48  66  44  60  41 /  30  10   0  20  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  70  48  66  44  59  40 /  30  20  10  20  30  20
Pullman        67  45  63  42  58  40 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       74  50  70  47  65  46 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Colville       74  48  71  46  60  40 /  40  20  20  40  60  30
Sandpoint      69  47  66  44  56  39 /  40  20  20  30  50  30
Kellogg        64  44  61  41  54  38 /  40  20  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake     78  49  73  47  69  45 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee      76  50  71  47  67  48 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           78  49  73  46  66  44 /  10  10  20  30  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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