Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 261250
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
449 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Fog and low clouds will persist across portions of central
Washington and north Idaho. Record high temperatures will once
again be possible today across southeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. A couple of weak storm systems will affect the area
Tuesday through Wednesday night bringing a small chance of
precipitation and cooler temperatures to the region. A ridge of
high pressure will then rebound late in the week for drier weather
and more fog before breaking down next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tues: The main challenges for today and Tue will
be very similar to the last few days, namely fog and/or the areal
coverage of stratus...as well as the possibility of record high
temps. Much of Ern Wa and N Idaho remain under a canopy of low
clouds and areas of fog. Concerning the dense fog advisory for
this morning... we expect vsbys to waver considerably due to
scattered mid clouds aloft altering radiative cooling. The rapid
height rises and warming aloft we saw Sunday accompanying the
quickly strengthening upper ridge will cool a few degrees celsius,
leading to cooling temps today versus Sunday. Record high temps
still remain a possibility, but the areal coverage is not expected
to be as widespread. Like Sunday, towns close to the Cascades and
in the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix completely and could remain
under fog and/or low clouds a good part of the day. Expect more
cooling for Tues as a weak Ern Pacific cool front reaches the
Cascades late in the afternoon. Given the deep dry lyr above the
moist surface, the only chance of rain will be in the Cascades by
late afternoon Tues. bz

Tuesday night through Sunday: Models have wavered little for this
week resulting in a high confidence forecast in the synoptic
pattern. A strong bubble of high pressure will remain entrenched
over the region, which will either divert energy off of Pacific
Ocean to the north or weaken any energy to the point that only
minor precip chances are expected. A couple weak disturbances of
note will be one Tuesday night and then another Wednesday night
into Thursday night. Tough to tell if any precip will be observed
over this period with these weak systems. Best chances for precip
will be over the higher terrain and over the more favorable
upslope areas at the Cascade crest and in the ID Panhandle. Any
precip that does fall is expected to be be very light. Cooler air
will push into the region behind the cold front Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This will result in a cooling trend through the end
of the work week, especially for the mountains, southeast WA and
in the Idaho Panhandle; with that said, there will be enough
cooling to drop temperatures back down to seasonal normals.

Models continue to show increased variability toward the weekend.
The GFS model has been consistently weaker with the ridge of high
pressure and shows a faster break down with increasing precip
chances Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The ECMWF builds
the ridge up a bit stronger. This results in a slower break down
of the ridge with the next chance of precip showing up a bit later
more around Sunday night. The Canadian model is the clear outlier
at this point with a much more amplified pattern and does not
break the ridge down out through early next week. The Canadian
solution will be discounted for now and will go with more of blend
of the GFS/ECMWF solutions. Models will have a tendency to break
strong ridges down a bit too quickly, so I will lean more toward
the slower break down of the ridge exhibited by the ECMWF solution
for now. In all likelihood, this will result in a continuation of
fog or low clouds across much of the region into the weekend. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Expect LIFR vsbys and ceilings for the Spokane/ C`da
TAFs through late morning with drizzle likely. Freezing drizzle is
not expected. The KOTX morning RAOB showed the depth of this fog
to be around 700 ft deep AGL at close to 3 am PST at the NWS fcst
office close to both the Spokane airport and Fairchild AFB. VFR
conditions for KPUW and KLWS with SE winds 8 to 16 mph. KMWH and
KEAT will be under the threat of LIFR ceilings into late
morning...though KMWH will see periods of VFR with persistent north
winds of 6-8 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  34  45  32  39  32 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  53  33  46  33  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        54  40  48  36  46  35 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Lewiston       58  39  52  39  49  38 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville       42  26  40  31  39  31 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      45  30  44  32  40  31 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Kellogg        47  32  44  34  41  33 /   0   0   0  20  10  20
Moses Lake     41  34  42  31  41  32 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      39  33  38  33  38  33 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           38  31  38  31  38  30 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area.

&&

$$



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