Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 062139
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
239 PM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The breezy conditions and warm weather will persist into
Saturday. The arrival of a cold front will bring gusty winds to
much of the Inland Northwest Sunday. Monday will likely be the
coolest day next week, with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, and high temperatures in the 60s and low 70s. A
return to warmer than average conditions is likely by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sat Nt: With the upper low moving slowly SE away
from the region and an extensive canopy of mid and high clouds
across Oregon and the Srn Idaho Panhandle, the sfc (even the
highest terrain which is typically a source of convective
initiation) remains capped attm, and we don`t expect much of a
threat of thunder over the Nrn Blue Mtns and the Camas Prairie
this evening. We`re then just left with breezy NE/N winds through
this evening for nearly all zones. The exception would be the
Purcell Trench region from Coeur d`Alene to the BC border which
should remain windy into Saturday as CAA strengthens this evening
and pressure gradients remain tight. Otherwise expect cool nights
and a mostly sunny Saturday under decreasing winds.bz

Sunday through Tuesday Night: There are two main concerns for his
period of the forecast. The winds on Sunday and the thunder
potential for Monday. Sunday morning winds will increase across
the Cascade gaps and spread eastward through the day. By the
afternoon widespread 15-20 with gusts up to 30 mph will be
possible down the Okanogan Valley into the Columbia Basin and
eastward into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas. The Cascade gaps,
especially from Plain into Wenatchee and over portions of the
Waterville Plateau could see winds 20-25 with gusts up to
35...perhaps some localized gusts to 40 mph. Will have to
continue to monitor the forecasts to see if a wind advisory may be
needed on Sunday. The elevated winds will continue through Monday,
tho not as strong as expected Sunday. Monday models are hinting at
some instability in the afternoon across eastern WA and north ID.
Coupled with cold temperatures aloft and a wave moving trough the
region have decided to add a slight chance of thunderstorms into
the forecast.

An upper level disturbance will move south out of Canada starting
Sunday. This is what is bringing the dry cold front to the region
and winds for Sunday as well as an increase in sky cover Sunday
night and Monday. Monday our chance of showers and afternoon
thunderstorms increase as the main energy associated with the
trough pushes through the area. We keep some lingering clouds and
showers in the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday for the Id
Panhandle.

Monday will be the coolest day in the 7 day forecast period, but
still right around average for this time of the year...valley
temps in the 60s (lower 70s for central WA). Once the winds
subside Monday evening our overnight lows for Monday night into
Tuesday morning could be chilly. While most locations will be
around average for this time of the year, our regularly cooler
spots such as Republic, Deer Park, Priest Lake etc. are expected
to be in the lower to mid 30s. /Nisbet

Wednesday to Friday: Shower opportunities return as the next system
drops in, while temperatures remain above normal. Models disagree
over how the system evolves. Some bring it directly in and others
keep it east, meaning dry weather altogether. Loosely models suggest
shower chances increase along the BC border late Wednesday, then
expand over the north and east CWA Thursday and Friday. Chances
will be best in the afternoon; there could also be some thunderstorms
with models indicating pockets of convective instability. Still it
doesn`t look like a wash-out, if anything falls at all. Otherwise
expect a mix of sun and clouds, with some increase in north to
northeast winds late in the period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The main focus on aviation will be gusty north to
northeast winds. The strongest winds will impact airports such as
Omak, Moses Lake, Sandpoint, Coeur D Alene, and Spokane. Winds
will peak today...but remain breezy through Saturday for sites
such as KCOE and KSZT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  74  44  63 /   0   0   0   0   0  30
Coeur d`Alene  50  81  50  72  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10  40
Pullman        49  79  49  69  42  60 /   0   0   0   0   0  40
Lewiston       53  84  54  76  46  66 /  10  10  10   0   0  40
Colville       46  85  48  76  40  68 /   0   0   0  10  10  40
Sandpoint      44  79  45  71  40  59 /   0   0   0  20  20  50
Kellogg        44  80  47  69  40  55 /  10   0   0  10  10  60
Moses Lake     53  87  51  77  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  86  56  74  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           52  86  51  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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