Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 280603
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1003 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
going into Friday, but snow levels will remain above pass levels
for motorists traveling on Friday. The arrival of a very cold and
windy arctic front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter
driving conditions to the mountain passes and much cooler weather
for the weekend. Cold conditions, with a few minor snow bearing
weather disturbances, is forecast for new work week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: adjustments made based on newest model runs and
satellite/radar trends. I cut back PoPs for the remainder of the
night, especially from the Spokane area westward. I also reduced
PoPs for this evening south toward the Palouse/L-C valley, but
they still rise overnight into Friday. On Friday itself I also cut
back PoP some in the morning across the Spokane area westward, but
ramp them up more Spokane afternoon and evening, making some
upward adjustments in precipitation amounts. Friday`s system is
still on track to bring colder air in and models turn off the
precipitation threat relatively quick from the northwest as that
colder air is coming in. Adjustments were also made to overnight
lows, bumping them up a degree or two given current trends.

It still looks like there is some snow threat on the tail end of
the Friday`s system. The chances appear best late Friday
afternoon and evening near the Cascades and Friday night into
Saturday morning farther east. This may include the eastern third
of WA and north ID. Given the winds with the system, confidence
leans toward favoring little significant accumulations over
northeast WA and north ID. However some light to moderate
accumulations are possible near the Cascade crest and late Friday
night and moreso toward Saturday morning toward the central
Panhandle mountain passes. There may be some light accumulation
lingering through Saturday morning over the southeast WA, across
the higher Palouse of WA and ID and the Blues through Camas
Prairie, in the favorable northwest flow.

The main thing to get: there may be some impacts over the passes,
first in the Cascades late Friday afternoon/evening and
potentially toward the central Panhandle toward late Friday night
into Saturday morning. The Palouse southward will have a secondary
but minor threat. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A developing storm system will bring mean increasing
clouds and rain chances over the next 24 hours. The best chances
will start late tonight into Friday morning around PUW/LWS.
Chances will also come toward the GEG to COE areas by Friday
morning, but the better threat here will be in afternoon and
evening. Look for VFR conditions, with local MVFR/IFR cigs
possible in heavier precipitation as Friday afternoon progresses
into evening. The lowest precipitation threat will be over the lee
of the Cascades and deeper Columbia Basin, including EAT/MWH.
There is some potential for fog and stratus to develop overnight
and early Friday around EAT, but latest forecasts guidance
suggests it may not be as deep if it develops at all. In the messy
pattern, there will also be breezy and gusty winds, but these may
be decoupled tonight and early Friday leading to areas of LLWS. By
mid to late morning/afternoon the atmosphere begins to mixed again
and gradients will tighten with the incoming low, leading to
breezy conditions. Some winds gusts between 30 and 45 kts will be
possible in the afternoon, especially over the expose TAF sites
including GEG.

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. The offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  50  26  27  10  22 /  10  70  80  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  43  49  29  29  11  23 /  20  90 100  20  10   0
Pullman        44  53  31  32  11  25 /  60  90 100  50  10   0
Lewiston       47  57  37  38  21  28 /  50  60  90  60  20   0
Colville       41  47  22  23   4  21 /  40  70  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      42  45  26  27   8  20 /  60  90 100  20  10   0
Kellogg        40  44  29  30  10  21 /  70 100 100  50  10   0
Moses Lake     43  55  27  29   9  24 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      41  49  29  30  13  23 /  20  30  10  10   0   0
Omak           37  46  17  19   1  19 /  20  30  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$



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