Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280122
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
922 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain is expected tonight and Tuesday with crossing low
pressure. Dry weather is expected with mid week high pressure
before low pressure returns rain to the forecast by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure is progged to track from the MS/TN Valley to the
OH valley by Tuesday morning. Increasing moisture and shortwave
support should result in showers overspreading the area tonight
through Tuesday morning. Removed the isolated thunder mention
as meso analysis and 00Z upper air data show instability fading
just to our S-SW.

Showers should begin to taper off from W-E by Tuesday afternoon
as the low tracks E and the axis of the supporting shortwave
trough crosses. Lows are expected to be around 20 deg above
average tonight, with highs Tue around 10 deg above seasonal
levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As high pressure moves over the Great Lakes, cooler and drier
air will enter the region. Even this cooler air will still be
slightly above normal. The high will be shunted to the east by
Thursday afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west.
Showers will become a threat by late Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure will bring rain into the region Thursday night,
Friday, and Friday night before leaving just a slight chance of
a shower by Saturday. High pressure settling back in should
allow for dry conditions into Sunday. Have stuck close to
SuperBlend forecast by Monday with diverging model solutions.
Temperatures will remain slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue for the first several hours of the
forecast period, but clouds will lower and thicken with time.
Approaching low pressure will bring another period of rain
overnight and through the morning hours of Tuesday. Expect
deterioration through MVFR to a period of IFR for most
terminals. Fog/drizzle and low ceilings may linger behind the
main rain shield as well. Although visibilities will improve
during the afternoon, ceilings will only slowly improve to MVFR
levels. Generally light winds are expected throughout.

Outlook...
Restrictions are likely again by late week as another broad low
affects the Upper Ohio Valley.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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