Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS AND SKY BASED ON OBSERVER AND NEAR TERM MODEL
DATA. PREVIOUS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CU IS
POSSIBLE AT MOST PORTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH UNDER
BUILDING RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PA BORDER SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE
TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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