Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051805
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS DEPARTING HIGH TO OUR NORTH KEEPS MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF BETTER MOISTURE AND LESS CAPPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDER WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH CAPE
BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THUS NOT
IMPACT TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL BEAR WATCHING. SOME SPOTTY
MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY
STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BECOMING DENSE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF PIT FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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