Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 191921
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
221 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather is expected tonight and through much of Wednesday,
as is very warm temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current radar imagery shows rain showers lifting north of the area.
Drying will occur from south to north through the evening, with
rain finally coming to an end for far northern zones by late this
evening.

The warm front will finish is transition through the area this
evening and temporary drying should commence. Strong southerly
flow in the warm sector will keep temperatures elevated through
the night. Lows will largely remain in the 50s, some 25-30
degrees warmer than average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...Record Breaking Highs Forecast For Tuesday...

With the warm front pushing well north of the area Tuesday
morning and the strengthening upper-level ridge nudging in from
the south, dry weather will be maintained. Cloudy morning sky
conditions will give way to gradual clearing through the day as
the south-southwesterly flow fully mixes down the dry air aloft.
High low temperatures, increasing insolation, strong warm
advection, and building heights should all mean efficient
warming is expected. High temperatures were kept on the high
side of guidance, but a degree or two below the high MEX/MAV
numbers as recent moist conditions will be a minor limiting
factor. Regardless, highs are forecast to break records for Feb
20th. A climate section has been inserted below.

The aforementioned ridge will keep the forecast area dry through
at least Wednesday morning. Finally, the upper-level flow will
steer the central U.S. low northeastward through Ontario,
flopping the cold front over our area west to east. Some timing
differences exist, but highest rain chances look to be during
the day Wednesday. Current timing has this sharp boundary
creating non-diurnal temperature curve for some, especially
further north and east. Locations south and east of Pittsburgh
should see one more strong warming day before the temperatures
drop. We could make a run at a few record highs, but this will
be highly dependent on timing of the front. With the upper-level
support shunting northeast following the track of the low, only
modest lift associated with the surface front is expected.
Therefore, potential for high rainfall amounts with this round
will be limited. In total, another quarter to half an inch can
be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday`s cold front opens the door to a stream of Gulf moisture
that will bring multiple rounds of showers to the area. Several
shortwaves will pass through the mean flow and could result in
additional hydrologic concerns through the weekend. Model
differences certainly do exist during this time, but rain chances
were kept in the likely range for much of the weekend. A mention of
potential water issues has been inserted into the HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rain continues to move northeastward this afternoon. Expect MVFR
and IFR conditions to improve with the northward departure of
the warm front as indicated on satellite and surface
observations, save for KFKL/KDUJ where low cigs may linger until
later tonight.

VFR should then prevail for much of the period tonight-tomorrow.
Outside some diurnal cu in moist southerly flow, a passing
shortwave aloft may briefly return some ceiling restrictions
over the north tomorrow afternoon.

Strong low level jet will support the continuation of LLWS in
most of the TAFs through tomorrow morning.

OUTLOOK...
The risk for widespread restrictions returns late Wednesday and
Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs are forecast Tuesday and possible Wednesday

Location            Feb20 Record      Feb21 Record
Pittsburgh            68 (1891)         73 (1997)
Zanesville            71 (1939)         72 (1997)
Morgantown            70 (1994)         75 (1874)
DuBois                61 (2016)         60 (1983)
Wheeling              68 (1930/2016)    68 (1930)
New Philadelphia      69 (1994)         66 (2017)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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