Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251611
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1211 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DUE TO A FAIR GAP IN
COVERAGE BETWEEN CLOUDS NOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CLOUDS
WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE ALSO PULLED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH.
EXPECT THAT IF ANY SHOWERS WOULD APPEAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOME DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE OCCURRED UPSTREAM BY NOW.
HAVE STILL CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW DURING THE
EVENING ACROSS THE RIDGES IN CASE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN SQUEEZE OUT
ANY MOISTURE. WIND GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP AS
EXPECTED...WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH LOWS DROPPING SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH GRADIENT AND
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. AS FRONT APPROACHES LATE DAY
TUESDAY A FEW SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO EASTERN OHIO TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND BY AFTN WITH GUSTS OF NR 25 KTS LIKELY. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







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