Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 281436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE BUT BEFORE
IT DOES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASINGLY POTENT LATE
MARCH SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE TODAY...FOCUS ON TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WAS CENTERED ON EXPANSE OF CLOUD CLOVER NORTH AND EAST AND
THE GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND
SURFACE FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING
THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW
COVER THAT SURVIVES MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY
DRIVE SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN...THUS SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE EAST AS
WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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