Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 241735
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1235 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Record breaking temperatures today will be followed by a cold
front late tonight into early Saturday morning with rain along
the front, gusty winds through much of Saturday, and
temperatures steadily dropping back to near normal by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows a developing field of flat cu
through the center of the forecast area. These clouds will do
little to inhibit insolation this afternoon. Temperatures
already in the low to mid 70s should continue to rise through
3-4pm. In many cases, daily records have already been broken and
will soon threaten maximum February records.

Skies will generally be cloud free this evening as the diurnally
driven cu dissipate and the cold front still well off to the
west. The cold front will advance into our western zones near
midnight as the surface low deepens near Lake Huron. A line of
rain showers will accompany the cold front, with embedded
thunderstorms possible. Timing of the frontal passage will not
be conducive to prolonged severe threat, although modest
buoyancy and deep shear along the boundary could support strong
to isolated severe elements into eastern Ohio. SPC has
maintained a slight risk for severe weather across most Ohio
counties and a marginal risk east towards Pittsburgh. Strong
and gusty winds are likely as the front passes and again behind
as the pressure gradient tightens and cold advection begins.

A lull in precipitation is expected behind the front Saturday
evening. Eventually, any remaining moisture will be squeezed out
in the form of scattered rain showers changing over to snow by
Saturday night. Temperatures will fall behind the front tonight,
and continue to drop through Saturday with high temperatures
occuring very early.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A brief lull in precipitation behind the front will be followed
by scattered lake enhanced showers Saturday night under of cold
northwesterly flow...eventually changing over to snow with
minimal accumulations. precipitation will end by Sunday morning
as high pressure builds back in from the west.

While temperatures will remain in the 50s Friday night, temps
will fall all of Saturday and Saturday night, eventually
bottoming out in the 20s. Seasonal highs around 40 are forecast
on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad southwest flow aloft will persist through the first half
of the period, being then replaced by eastern CONUS trough by
the end of the week. Despite the relatively good agreement in
the upper level pattern, the deterministic guidance varies in
the timing and speed of the more amplified low pressure system
for the middle of the week which translated to timing
differences thereafter. Thus, opted to stay close to previous
forecast with only minor tweaks based on the newest model runs.

Temperatures continue to trend above seasonal averages, with
values close to 20 degrees above normal before the frontal
passage midweek. After that time, we cool back down.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through midnight, with daytime cumulus
and nighttime mid/high clouds.  Main issue until then will be wind,
as gusts to between 20 and 30 knots out of the southwest will
continue through the afternoon.  Once gusts subside this evening,
overnight low level wind shear is anticipated as winds aloft ramp up
ahead of the approaching cold front.  This boundary blows through
between 06Z and 14Z from west to east.  Went with prevailing MVFR
conditions for now in showers, but a brief period of IFR is
possible, and could be added once timing is firmed up.  VCTS
maintained for now, but again, prevailing TSRA for an hour or two is
possible.  Behind the front, winds will slowly shift to SW and then
W with time, with continued gusts to 30 knots possible.  MVFR
ceilings and scattered showers will then linger into the
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions may linger into Saturday evening behind the front
in showers and low clouds. Occasional restrictions are again
possible Monday through Wednesday in an unsettled pattern.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for climate sites:

            Thu              Fri
          --------        --------
PIT       70 (1922)       70 (1875,1906)
ZZV       64 (2000)       70 (1961)
MGW       68 (1996)       75 (1975)
DUJ       63 (1985)       60 (1985)
HLG       62 (2000)       63 (2016)
PHD       69 (1975)       66 (1985)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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