Area Forecast Discussion
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965
FXUS61 KPBZ 281905
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
305 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances will keep showers in the forecast
through the weekend with humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and a few thunderstorms moving northeast across much of
the region as first shortwave exits while additional storms have
formed along outflow boundaries especially north of Interstate 80.
Second shortwave moving across West Virginia is firing a second
round of showers and storms...which will mostly move across areas
south and east of Pittsburgh early tonight. Still a small threat
of flood problems this evening south of the Mason Dixon line in
the higher elevations, otherwise meso-scale models agree severe
threat or flood threat will be south and east of the ridges, where
watches have been issued. As this evenings shortwave moves east,
expect a slow decrease in showers through the night. No real
change in airmass with humid conditions keeping overnight lows
elevated.

Another humid day Friday with scattered showers and storms as weak
impulses move through a developing eastern mid level trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Multiple shortwaves will cross the region Friday night and
Saturday, keeping shower and thunderstorm chances through the
period. By Sunday trough is forecast to sharpen enough to push
deep moisture east of the ridges by evening, with diminishing
shower chances late day. Continued humid with near seasonal
daytime temperatures, with lows somewhat above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Appears to be enough low level moisture for low chance pops in the
ridges Monday, otherwsie a weak bubble of surface high pressure
looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers
Tuesday and Wednesday. A frontal boundary may get close enough for
chance POPs on Thursday. A modified Superblend was used for the
extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A medium confidence forecast with cigs and vis timing generally
following consensus short range model.

Another slug of rain will move through during the afternoon hours
affecting all terminals save for FKL and DUJ where they will
reside far enough north and miss out on MVFR/IFR weather.
Prevailing showers were ended west /21z/ to e /03z/ before IFR
stratus and fog develops late evening. It is still a tough call
on how low vis and cigs drop overnight. For now rolled with IFR at
most airports save for DUJ. Lowest confidence of occurrence is at
FKL since they won`t receive measurable rainfall during the day
light hours. Morning fog and stratus will erode around 14z owing
to VFR weather. Any diurnal showers should pop up after 18z...so
the last six hours of the forecast was kept dry.

The only time window for thunder appears to be in the 21-01z
window as a short wave trough rides northeast along the Ohio
river.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Brief sub VFR restrictions are possible in showers and
thunderstorms through Monday, however given duration and coverage
nothing more than a CB or VCTS/ VCSH expected at this time.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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