Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 020955
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
255 AM PDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS AN OPEN TROUGH. A BATCH OF LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE DAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE MOST
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO TAPPER OFF NEAR SUNSET WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE THREAT OF SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DECREASE NEAR AND AFTER
SUNSET. A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
WILL DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL SAG INTO CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY.
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS WEAKER INSTABILITY CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND FROM THIS COOL SPELL.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITHIN A BROADER WESTERN U.S.
TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS FLOW WOULD CAUSE A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION. AS SUCH, SHOULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING OVER OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES.
BY FRIDAY, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE WARMER AND DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO THEN
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
INCREASE STABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA, AND THEREFORE EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM. THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT TO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THUS EXPECT SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO RETURN
TO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ABOVE
SEASONAL. 90


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS KPDT AND KALW THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. PLAN ON USING VCSH DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY RATHER THAN
CARRYING A SHOWER GROUP. CEILINGS WILL BE 5-7KFT BKN-SCT AND MID
LEVEL CLOUD ABOVE. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT
AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  70  49  71  49 /  20  20  20  10
ALW  73  54  73  54 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  76  53  76  53 /  20  20  20  10
YKM  70  51  71  51 /  20  20  20  10
HRI  74  53  75  51 /  20  20  20  10
ELN  69  50  71  49 /  20  20  20  10
RDM  63  41  64  41 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  65  46  66  46 /  60  30  30  20
GCD  67  45  68  45 /  60  30  20  10
DLS  68  53  72  53 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/90/90



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