Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 022125
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS TURNED
SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MODELS STILL
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES LATE TODAY MOVING NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST TUESDAY. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT
WE WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH
BEGINS MOVING INLAND AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION NORTH OF THE LOW. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WED AND THU. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THESE
DAYS. 94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
MOST UNSTABLE LOCATION/TIMES...CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WASHINGTON.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW IN CALIFORNIA MAY KEEP
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREAD INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON...BUT OTHERS KEEP THE
MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SUGGEST IT MAY DRY OUT IN NORTHEAST
OREGON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW VARYING FROM
ARIZONA TO MONTANA. WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION
I KEPT THE SAME GENERAL TREND OF DRYING OUT THE CWA DUE TO THE LOW
MOVING AWAY AND RIDGING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 21
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IMPACTING KRDM AND KBDN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TOMORROW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES
TOMORROW AFTER 21Z WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  82  51  75 /  10  10  20  40
ALW  50  83  54  76 /   0  10  10  40
PSC  47  86  54  79 /   0  10  20  30
YKM  47  82  53  75 /   0  20  30  50
HRI  46  85  53  77 /   0  10  20  40
ELN  44  79  53  72 /   0  20  30  50
RDM  41  78  47  67 /  20  30  40  60
LGD  40  78  47  74 /   0  10  20  40
GCD  39  79  45  72 /  10  20  30  60
DLS  51  78  55  72 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/76/76


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