Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 240524 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1024 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST
CONTINUES TO SPIN TOWARDS SHORE THIS EVENING. A STRONG DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO CANADA AND MONTANA. A WEAKER WAVE IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON. THIS WEAKER WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AIR MASS THAT IS
LESS UNSTABLE DUE TO THE STABILIZING AFFECTS BEHIND THE STRONG
DISTURBANCE AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS SUCH, MAINLY EXPECT
SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE, THOUGH A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO INDICATE THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HAD DROPPED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. EXPECT A
FURTHER UPDATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO TO REMOVE THUNDER AND
LOWER SHOWER COVERAGES. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA AND A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT IF ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AS THE WAVE TRAVELS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
BUT AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR KALW AND KPDT THROUGH 24/08 UTC. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KDLS AND KYKM AS WELL OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE
VFR WITH LOWEST CIGS BETWEEN 4500 AND 7000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL RUN 10
TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. MOST SITES WILL SEE
WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KTS THURSDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. 90

&&

.FIRE WX...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM AREA MOVED QUICKLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS OF MOISTURE
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY
AND WILL DECREASE FURTHER AFTER SUNSET. THUS ONLY A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET, THEN EXPECT ONLY SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. 90

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  78  49  83 /  30  10   0   0
ALW  55  78  54  83 /  40  10   0   0
PSC  56  82  52  85 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  52  77  51  83 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  54  80  51  86 /  30  10   0   0
ELN  50  73  49  80 /  30  10  10  10
RDM  37  73  39  81 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  48  72  43  79 /  30  10   0   0
GCD  46  74  43  82 /  20   0   0   0
DLS  55  76  53  84 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/90






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