Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 011926
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
126 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ARE DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
700MB TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION UNTIL 03Z. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY JUST BELOW LAKE
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS AREAWIDE ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WEST AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH ALONG
PACIFIC COAST DEEPENS AND CLOSES CENTER OFF CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH TO NEAR SAN
DIEGO FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINS MOISTURE ACROSS EAST
IDAHO. GFS WAVERING SLIGHTLY ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM
ANDRES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS TO SEE AN
INCREASE BY SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PRECIP EACH DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...ACTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS BETWEEN SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO AND STRETCHING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO CLEAR AND CONTRIBUTING
TO ACTIVE DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE
TO POINT AT MID AFTERNOON FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. STILL ANTICIPATING MVFR OR IFR
WITHIN ACTIVE CONVECTION UNTIL LATE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTIVE THREAT
AS PASSED EAST IDAHO WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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