Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
000
FXUS65 KPIH 261002
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
302 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOG IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWS THE FOG ALONG INTERSTATE 86 FROM POCATELLO TO BURLEY...AND
ALONG INTERSTATE 15 FROM POCATELLO TO IDAHO FALLS. ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCERN IS AROUND CRATERS OF THE MOON...BUT WEBCAMS HINT THIS MAY BE
A STRATUS DECK RATHER THAN FOG. BOISE INVERSION IS STRENGTHENING
WITH TEMPS AROUND 48 DEGREES AROUND 5500 FT AGL AS STRONG RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS CHANGES ORIENTATION THROUGH
TONIGHT AND FINALLY MAKES WAY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WIDELY
VARIABLE AS SUGGESTED BY NAM 850MB WET BULB TEMPS. WITH THE WARM AIR
IN PLACE ALOFT...WE MAY SEE THE TUESDAY EVENT BEGIN WITH PATCHES OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE UPPER VALLEY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN/SNOW.
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BEFORE THE
SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. HINSBERGER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THURSDAY...DECREASING SHOWERS
FROM WEEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO WYOMING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE ENTER A PERIOD OF SLIGHT RISK OF SHOWERS
FROM DAY TO DAY. ON THE ONE HAND...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PROVIDES
GOOD WEATHER...BUT THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE FAST MOVING
LITTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PAN HANDLE. EACH MODEL RUN
OFFERS A LITTLE DIFFERENT PICTURE OF WHEN WE COULD SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION BECAUSE OF TIMING OF THOSE DISTURBANCES. RS
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KIDA...KBYI AND KPIH
OWING TO LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT WORK
THOUGH AND WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING AT KIDA MAYBE AS EARLY AS
16Z...AND KPIH BY 18Z. LATEST MODELS FAVOR KBYI BREAKING OUT ABOUT
16Z. STRATUS IN GENERAL THINS AND MOVES WEST TOWARDS BOISE. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG PROBLEMS AT KBYI AND KPIH. KIDA
PROBABLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE RIVER FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS FROM THE LOW OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO BY TUESDAY EVENING. RS


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.