Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FXUS65 KPIH 142003
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
203 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...EAST IDAHO REMAINS IN THE CONFLUENT PORTION OF
WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND UPPER RIDGE OVER
GREAT BASIN. MODELS PERSIST IN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER WESTERN
STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. PACIFIC SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO NOSE OF
RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OF VARYING AMOUNTS MOVING ACROSS EAST IDAHO. GFS ONLY DRY
MODEL AT THIS TIME WITH BOTH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN FCST AREA. BETTER MOISTURE STREAM
OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH
REACHING COAST AND PUSHING INLAND. GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON CUTTING OFF
BASE OF TROUGH INTO A SOUTHERLY SINKING LOW WHILE PROGRESSING
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS IDAHO INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE DIFFERENCES ARE IN HOW FAR INLAND THE CUT OFF
LOW PROGRESSES AND HOW QUICKLY FORECAST AREA DRIES OUT. HAVE MADE
VERY FEW CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OVERALL WITH INCREASING POPS
TOWARDS MIDWEEK THEN DRIER AND COOLER FOR FOLLOWING WEEKEND. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HINSBERGER


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO IDAHO WILL KEEP WEATHER
MOSTLY DRY WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND HELP FUEL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE INLAND THURSDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ODILE. HINSBERGER


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.