Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 031954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
154 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS HELD BACK CONVECTION.
THERE ARE SOME WEAK SPOTS IN THE CLOUD COVER WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN
SUCCESSFUL AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SAY MUCH OF THE AREA IS ONLY A DEGREE
OR TWO SHORT OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURE NEEDED FOR
CONVECTION TO BE SUCCESSFUL. THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SOME LIGHTING
HAS BEEN DETECTED OVER THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SAYS AIRMASS IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE TOWARDS JACKPOT NEVADA. SO
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING...BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THE CLOUDS WILL WIN OUT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR ONE INCH...SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GOOD RAIN UP TO HALF
INCH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING UP FROM SALT
LAKE WILL PROGRESS ALONG THE IDAHO AND WYOMING BORDER THIS EVENING.
TUESDAY...INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH ISOALTED SHOWERS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY. THE GFS STILL BRINGS A
DISTURBANCE ACROSS CALIFORNIA FRIDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
MONSOON MOISTURE AND THOSE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THERE
IS MINIMAL AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BE DRY DAYS. RS
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN A RISK AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SLOW CLEARING STARTING THIS EVENING
OUT WEST AND FINALLY AT KIDA CLOSER TO 12Z TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS
OUTSIDE OF STORMS OF 20-30KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET AND
TOMORROW UP TO 20 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST VCSH OR VCTS AT ALL SITES...WITH POTENTIALLY
A BETTER CHANCE AT KBYI AND KSUN. KEYES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOMETIMES FORECASTS RIDE A VERY THIN LINE. TODAY
LOOKED PRETTY STORMY ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY WHERE WE SAW
CLEARING SKIES OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. SO FAR...THERE HASN`T BEEN
MUCH OF THAT. THAT SAID...WE ARE FINALLY SEE SOME LIGHTNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WE ARE STILL HOLDING WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE ARE SEEING THOSE POCKETS OF
CLEARING INCREASING...SO THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL A
RISK. WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH MORE STORMS DEVELOPING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDERS. IT IS BORDERLINE FOR A RED
FLAG FOR OUR SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED
AFTER WE GET THROUGH WITH TODAY`S POTENTIAL ISSUES. THAT THREAT
CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TREND THERE IS FOR MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES AND ZONE
411 ALONG IN THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS/WESTERN WYOMING. COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS ELSEWHERE BUT STILL COULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE FLOW TURNS
WESTERLY. UNFORTUNATELY...WE MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT LOWER
HUMIDITY AND WINDS BOTH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC
VALLEY. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$


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