Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 281950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
150 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...A flat westerly flow aloft was noted across SE Idaho
early this afternoon as the next upstream low pressure system moved
into the WRN Canadian coastal waters. The models remain fairly
consistent with the idea that the low will remain positioned along
the WRN Canadian coast through Wednesday as daytime temperatures
warm. A second disturbance lifting ENE across the ERN Pacific will
cycle through the flow and across Oregon and NW Idaho Tuesday
afternoon/night resulting in a slight chance of thunderstorm
activity across the CNTRL Idaho mountains Tuesday afternoon and
evening. The main trough axis shifts onshore Wednesday placing the
main storm track over SE Idaho Wednesday and Thursday resulting in
ongoing isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
favoring the mountains each day. The Canadian low gradually spreads
east Friday and Saturday while a trailing disturbance digs into and
across the NW states Saturday and Sunday. The picture for next
weekend is not all that clear as the ECMWF model is somewhat more
progressive in sweeping the secondary energy east Saturday while the
GFS wants to briefly close off a low over Washington/Oregon Sunday
morning slowing the progression considerably. Have generally
maintained some mention of showers and afternoon thunderstorms
through the weekend while allowing temperatures to cool under the
influence of the advancing trough. We will certainly see periods
with breezy conditions as the aforementioned disturbances track
through the region and for right now the best days for wind appear
to be Wednesday and continuing each day into next weekend. Huston

.AVIATION...Expect 10 to 15 knot winds through sunset at BYI, PIH
and IDA with winds dying overnight.   May see a shift to downslope
easterly winds late tonight or early morning at BYI but expect to
stay under 10 knots.   Lighter winds expected Monday.  Do not expect
much visibility restrictions due to smoke at SUN and IDA and VFR
conditions should remain in place. GK

.FIRE WEATHER...Wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph mainly in zone 410 are
expected this evening before dying around sunset.   Winds should be
much less on Monday with nothing close to red flag conditions
expected.  Temperatures will remain very warm along with extremely
dry conditions through Wednesday.  Flow aloft becomes more southerly
by Tuesday and will allow a bit of moisture into the region and have
isolated thunderstorms mainly in high terrain Tuesday and Wednesday.
Expect an increase in southerly winds as well Wednesday into
Thursday with the southerly flow. GK

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

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