Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 181625
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1025 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING TAKING
PLACE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS QUICKER PACE OF CLEARING. WINDS IN THE UPPER SNAKE
PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL AND HOPEFULLY
THE RAIN THIS MORNING WILL SETTLE ANY DUST. NO WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL WATCH FOR SIGNS OF DUST PICKING
UP. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEATHER TODAY. PLENTY OF WINDS AND PRECIP BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK LATE IN THE MORNING PER GUIDANCE...BUT
PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS JUMPED INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE...BUT QUICKLY
SUBSIDED. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF KEEP WIND SPEEDS BELOW 25 KTS THIS
MORNING...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR. WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DRIVE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO NORTHERN IDAHO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON WEATHER IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.  HINSBERGER

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN
AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MON AS A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES TOWARD THE W
COAST. ONLY EXPECTING ISOLD MTN TSTMS ON MON...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY TUE AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE ON TUE...SO ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ONLY THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE ANY SNOW. AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF ID ON WED...
PRECIP WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS WIDESPREAD. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. BEYOND WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR AS THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DEPART FROM EACH OTHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...AND
PUTS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THU. THE GFS STILL
HAS THE FCST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST.
WILL SCALE BACK PRECIP ON THU AS A COMPROMISE. BOTH MODELS BRING A
NEW UPPER LOW TO THE PAC NW COAST BY SAT MORN...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
FASTER. WILL START A SLOW INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. HEDGES

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT PASSING THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORN WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR...BUT MAY FALL BRIEFLY TO MVFR
WITH THE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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