Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 250127
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
227 PM SST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A MONSOONAL TROUGH IS FOUND UP TO
250 NM NORTH OF TUTUILA...MOVING NEARLY STATIONARY. COMPUTER
MODELS AGREE TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS UPSTREAM
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVER THE FCST ZONES STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED OVER TOKELAU REGION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING. AS A RESULT...
ANTICIPATE VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 10 KT TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT SUNDAY. WIND SPEED WILL PICK UP A NOTCH TO 15
KT DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN TURNING WEST AT 10 KT MONDAY EVENING.
FUTURE FORECASTS MAY REQUIRE UPDATES DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXISTING MONSOON TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...
.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BAR THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM LOITERING NEAR TOKELAU. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SAMOAN ISLANDS STARTING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION BEFORE
MAKING NEW UPDATES. THEREFORE...THE PREV FCST REMAINS VALID.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND HAZARDOUS SURFS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY MORNING. SEA
HEIGHTS WILL RETURN NEAR 5 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
.A  HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI







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