Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 161143 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMIT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
600 PM CHST TUE SEP 16 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A CIRCULATION NEAR YAP...SOUTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVERGING LOW-LEVEL WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR YAP
ARE CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MARIANAS WATERS. THESE SHOULD EASILY CONTINUE TONIGHT...THEN
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY. SEA HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALSO. ONLY
CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS WERE TO RAISE THE POP TO 50 AND BUMP THE
CLOUDS UP TO 90 PERCENT CLOUD COVER. THE GENERAL PHILOSOPHY WAS
RIGHT ON. GFS40 IS STILL TRYING TO CLEAR THE SKIES SOMEWHAT NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST. IT HAS BEEN TRYING TO DO THIS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW DAYS. IT WILL HAPPEN AT SOME POINT...THE QUESTION IS
WHEN AND THIS REPRESENTS ONE OF THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS. IF
ENOUGH HEAVY SHOWERS TRAIN OVER SPOTS...THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD SOUTH OF KOSRAE TO EAST OF
MAJURO TO NEAR THE DATE LINE AT 11N. THE TROUGH IS MOVING WESTWARD
AND WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH KOSRAE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE
CROSSING THE DATE LINE AND WILL REACH MAJURO TONIGHT. MODELS PROG
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AROUND THURSDAY FOR THE FORECAST ZONES.
LATER IN THE WEEK MODELS SHOW A CONVERGENT PATTERN SETTING UP THAT
COULD BRING MORE MOISTURE BY THE WEEKEND TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND
KOSRAE. THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCLUDED IN THE MAJURO AND
POHNPEI FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT BECAUSE THEIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY WEATHER IS SEEN AT CHUUK THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE RIDGING
WEDGED IN ACROSS THE STATE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECAST REMAINS QUESTIONABLE IN THE LONG
TERM AS MODELS DIVERGE.

AT KOROR AND YAP...A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR YAP NEAR
10N139E REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN AT BOTH LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING. MODELS STILL DEPICT A WET PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS...BUT LATE AFTERNOON STABILITY HAS TEMPERED THE CONVECTION
FOR THE TIME BEING ESPECIALLY AT YAP. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE AS IT CONTINUES TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. RIDGING WILL USHER IN DRIER WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/DEVITA






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