Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXPQ60 PGUM 281158 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
958 PM CHST THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
IR SATELLITE LOOPS REVEAL THE WEAK CIRCULATION PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF GUAM THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEAK CIRCULATION.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GUAM AND ADJACENT WATERS FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CHST THU MAY 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GUAM AND
ROTA MARINE ZONES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR
GUAM AND CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ABOUT 150 TO 175 MILES EAST
OF GUAM AND ROTA...EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 165E BETWEEN 11N AND 14N.

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK CIRCULATION MENTIONED ABOVE IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION
FROM GUAM TO SAIPAN. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
REVEALS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE WEAK
CIRCULATION TO BEYOND 155E. MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY ERODE THE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THIS TROUGH TO STAY SOUTHEAST OF THE
MARIANAS NEAR 150E THRU THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
IPAN BUOY IS REPORTING 4 FOOT SWELLS FROM THE EAST. GLOBAL WAVE
MODEL SHOWS 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AND A EAST SWELL OF 4 TO 5 FEET
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS POHNPEI
STATE...WELL SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK AND ACROSS THE MAJURO AREA. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE
TROUGH ARE BETWEEN 11N AND 14N FROM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM TO NORTHEAST
OF ENEWETAK. MOST MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGHING PATTERN JUST
NORTH OF 10N WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFS INDICATES THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MAJURO AND CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...OTHERWISE LIGHT
WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF EASTERN MICRONESIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK REMAINS BETWEEN AREAS OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILING. CONVERGENT WINDS SLOWLY ARRIVING
FROM THE EAST COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...OTHERWISE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR CHUUK INTO
NEXT WEEK. YAP AND KOROR...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS YAP STATE...VERY DRY WEATHER DOMINATES FAR WESTERN
MICRONESIA. ISLAND CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS FOR KOROR...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. REMINDER...RESIDENTS OF PALAU
SHOULD MONITOR WATER SUPPLIES AND BE PREPARED FOR VERY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CHAN/DEVITA/SIMPSON



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