Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 120540
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
340 PM CHST SAT JUL 12 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W NEAR 14N142E IS MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM
THE MARIANAS. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW CLEARING SKIES IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM IN THE LEE OF TD 09W. THE VAD WIND GRAPHIC SHOWS GENTLE
TO MODERATE GRADIENT WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING FROM SW TO SE DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LOCAL BUOYS SHOWED COMBINED SEAS RANGING
FROM 4 TO TO NEAR 7 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF TD 09W JUST AS
IT PASSED THROUGH THE ROTA CHANNEL THIS MORNING...AND THOSE STORMS
BARELY MISSED GUAM. WEATHER OVER GUAM COULD HAVE BEEN MUCH WORSE.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST
SURFACE WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST ZONES.
ALSO...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ACTIVE WEATHER CURRENTLY OVER FAR
EASTERN MICRONESIA COULD MOVE TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AND START TO
AFFECT THE MARIANAS IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS...THEN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER COULD ARRIVE LATER NEXT WEEK.
WAVE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE AND WIND GRIDS
WERE REFRESHED THROUGH DAY 5 WITH LATEST GFS75 12/00Z MODEL DATA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AS A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W SOUTHEASTWARD TO 6N168E AND FARTHER EAST TO
THE DATE LINE. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE STATES AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MODELS STILL HINT AT A CIRCULATION/DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS AND MOVE IT WESTWARD NORTH OF POHNPEI BY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PALAU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AFFECT YAP BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SWELL
GENERATED BY TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W WILL BUILD UP THE SEAS FOR
YAP AND KOROR BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT
LIKELY. RIDGING WILL KEEP CHUUK STATE RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/MILLER





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