Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 310810 AAA
AFDPQ

AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
605 PM CHST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SHOWS GUAM ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN OLD SHEAR LINE
THAT IS MOVING SOUTH...WHILE A SHEAR-LINE FRAGMENT REMAINS
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT NEAR AND
EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF GUAM. NO SHOWERS AT ALL ARE SEEN IN
ROTA...TINIAN OR SAIPAN WATERS. SEAS REMAIN NEAR 6 FEET AT THE
IPAN AND RITIDIAN BUOYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REFRESHED THE WINDS FROM THE 18Z GFS OUT TO 10 DAYS...WHICH HAD
LITTLE EFFECT ON THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO KNOCK A COUPLE OF
KNOTS OFF THE WINDS FROM MONDAY ON. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK
PRETTY DRY WITH THE MARIANAS IN A DRY SLOT BETWEEN SHEAR LINES...
BUT THEN GFS BRINGS A SHEAR LINE DOWN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE DEEPENS VERY LITTLE WITH ITS ARRIVAL...BUT WINDS AND
PERHAPS CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY SET IN AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK AS THE
SHEAR LINE SETTLES IN.

&&

.MARINE...
GFS KEEPS MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MARIANAS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PEAKING AT 20 KT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SLOWLY-BUILDING NORTH SWELL SHOULD REACH 5 FEET BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WHEN HIGH SURF MAY DEVELOP ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MADE ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE EASTERN MICRONESIAN FORECASTS. ACCORDING TO THE MODELS
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE STAYS SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND MAJURO THROUGH
SUNDAY. LEFT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE POHNPEI FORECAST BECAUSE ON
SATELLITE IT LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE
EAST...AND IN THE GFS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY. KOSRAE HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...AND THE GFS HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTH
OF KOSRAE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE MOVES WEST OF MAJURO SUNDAY AND A NEW DISTURBANCE ENTERS FROM
THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
MCS NEAR AND SOUTH OF CHUUK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN PRIMARILY SOUTH OF CHUUK TONIGHT. NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS
AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR YAP
AND KOROR THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF STRONGER
NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR YAP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR KOROR MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AT
BOTH LOCATIONS NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA



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