Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXPQ60 PGUM 250630
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
430 PM ChST Sat Mar 25 2017
Patchy clouds, isolated showers, moderate trade winds and combined
seas of 4 to 6 feet are present across the Marianas.
Little change can be expected the next 2-3 days with moderate
trades and isolated showers. But by Wednesday, a surface ridge will
build eastward north of the region, pumping up the trades a bit, and
and bringing in somewhat more moisture. Skies should become mostly
cloudy for Wednesday through Friday night, but at this point it
appears showers, though increasing slightly, will remain isolated
Winds and seas will change little through Monday, but as winds
pick up starting Tuesday, seas will build as well, as both north
and east swell build a bit.
A band of trade-wind convergence is producing scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms between 1N and 7N from Pohnpei
State across Kosrae State to the Marshall Islands. Satellite shows
this pattern of convergence and showers is sliding west-southwest
toward southern Chuuk State. Fair weather remains at Majuro. East of
the Date Line, another trade-wind disturbance is steadily moving
westward, and periods of scattered showers could move to Majuro and
to near Kosrae by early next week, then possibly Pohnpei and Chuuk
mainly Tuesday and Wednesday.
A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for Kosrae. The combination
of long-period north swell along with building trade-wind waves will
cause seas and surf to rise from Chuuk eastward across Pohnpei and
Kosrae to the Marshall Islands the next several days. This will
cause hazardous surf for Kosrae and possibly for Majuro on Monday.
In conjunction with an astronomical high tide cycle of 5 to 6 feet
above the average low tide, coastal inundation is also possible at
Kosrae and Majuro. In addition, seas might also become hazardous for
small craft operation across the entire region.
A near-equatorial trough with patchy showers remains south of Koror
and Yap this afternoon. A few showers were edging toward the west-
northwest and will affect Yap and Koror on Sunday through Monday.
Relatively wet weather could develop next week; models are indicating
that a shear line will sink southward across the Philippine Sea to
near Yap and Koror next week. Also, trade-wind convergence will
likely spread westward from Eastern Micronesia and help trigger more
showers later next week.
Winds and seas are going to increase starting Monday as the shear
line approaches from the north. This will cause surf to rise on
Koror and Yap, and could reach hazardous levels later next week.