Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 271939
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
539 AM CHST THU AUG 28 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
A TUTT CROSSES OVER FAR NORTHERN CNMI. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST ZONES. AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE MARIANAS FROM THE
VICINITY OF 155E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST FORECAST UPDATE INVOLVED A COUPLE OF GRID ADJUSTMENTS.
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHEN LOW-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH INCREASES. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DETECTION ALREADY INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO UPDATED WIND GRIDS FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH
8 TO MORE CLOSELY ALIGN WITH THE LATEST GFS AND NAVGEM MODEL
SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICT A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF
THE MARIANAS. COMBINED SEAS STILL VERIFY AT AROUND 3 FEET WITH
TRADE-WIND ENERGY PREDOMINATING. OUTLOOK STILL CALLS FOR LITTLE
CHANGE IN SEA CONDITIONS AND LOW RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL
LINGER ACROSS CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES THRU THIS WEEKEND...AND
ACROSS KOSRAE STATE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER POHNPEI AND CHUUK COULD TRIGGER
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THRU FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENTLE TRADES FILTERING WESTWARD FROM
EAST OF THE DATE LINE MIGHT INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES NEAR MAJURO
AND KOSRAE.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL PRODUCED BY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
NEAR FIJI AND SAMOA IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THRU FRIDAY. HIGHER SURF AND RIP
CURRENT RISKS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING
SHORES BUT HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST CAN BE FOUND IN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA DISCUSSION ABOVE DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

LATEST ASCAT STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY
NEAR KOROR HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD FARTHER AWAY FROM PALAU. IN
RESPONSE TO RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM BOTH WEST AND EAST...THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS ALSO LIFTED NORTH OF KOROR AND IS NEAR YAP
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO STABILIZE NEAR KOROR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR YAP THRU
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED FARTHER NORTH OF YAP
ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO EXPAND WESTWARD FROM NEAR
CHUUK. STABLE AIR MASSES AT ALL LEVELS WILL WARRANT PLEASANT
WEATHER FOR BOTH LOCALES BY FRIDAY. THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL
LAST THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/CHAN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.