Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 062030 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
626 AM CHST SAT MAR 7 2015

RETRANSMITTED TO PLACE ON THE WEB

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE A DIFFUSE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS
PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE CONCENTRATED IN THE GUAM AND ROTA
ZONES. SYSTEM HAS BEEN BACK BUILDING DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TUTT OVER AND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. OTHERWISE...ONLY MODEST TRADE-WIND CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN BETWEEN THE MARIANAS AND THE DATE LINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY FORECAST GRID ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR
GUAM AND ROTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS ISOLATED FOR
TODAY DUE TO THE DIFFUSE STRUCTURE OF THE PASSING TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST STILL MAINTAINS A DRY BIAS
THROUGH DAY 7. WEATHER PATTERN COULD CHANGE BY DAY 10 IN RESPONSE
TO THE WEST WIND SURGE ALREADY IN PROGRESS ALONG THE EQUATOR...BUT
IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY IF OR WHEN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING NARRATIVE. COMBINED SEAS
ARE STILL HOVERING IN THE 7 TO 8-FOOT RANGE. MODES SURGE IN TRADE
WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD CAUSE SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS TO BUILD
AROUND ONE FOOT BY SUNDAY MORNING. STILL EXPECT SURF AT MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER GUAM IS PRODUCING
SOME WELCOME QPF THIS MORNING. WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED...
BUT ENHANCED CLOUDINESS...HIGHER DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
THE TEMPORARILY MOISTENED FUELS SHOULD REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER ON
GUAM AT LEAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS NEAR 3N171E COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HIGHER THAN TYPICALLY OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION IN DRY SEASON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS JUST NORTHEAST OF MAJURO. IF
THIS AREA EXPANDS...AN UPDATE MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH AND WEST OF
MAJURO BY TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE PERSISTENT
CIRCULATION AND NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH COULD BRING WETTER WEATHER TO KOSRAE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT MAINTAINED ISOLATED COVERAGE THERE FOR NOW. A DRY TRADE-
WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON POHNPEI WITH ACTIVE WEATHER
STAYING WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATEST ALTIMETRY DATA STILL SHOWS COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS OF 9 TO 11 FT. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO
ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT TERM WITH COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED TO
STAY NEAR 10 FEET AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF 4N THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED. DRY NORTHEAST
TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS CHUUK AND YAP STATES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TO KOROR BEGINNING TONIGHT BUT ASSOCIATED SHOWER COVERAGE
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF KOROR LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/WILLIAMS



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