Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KPQR 011539
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MARINE STRATUS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S...BUT HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INLAND WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 90S. AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE
COAST WAS PARALLEL TO THE COAST WITH MARINE CLOUDS MOVING S. OVER
LAND MARINE MOISTURE WAS SHALLOW AND A MIX OF FOG AND SHALLOW
STRATUS. EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY...LEAVING ANOTHER SUNNY DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS 12Z SLE
SOUNDING HAS SHOWN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMING AT H8 IN THE PAST 24
HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING STRONG THROUGH THU AND MODEL FORECAST
H8 TEMPS STILL ON THE ORDER OF 23 DEG C OVER THE INTERIOR EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY THU...WITH ANOTHER LIMITED PUSH OF MARINE CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. THU AFTERNOON GFS SUGGESTS A LITTLE
ONSHORE FLOW WITH THERMAL INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING E OF THE
CASCADES ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE SAGGING OF UPPER HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW AS STRONG A
PUSH WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING STRONGER THROUGH FRI. EITHER
WAY...NOT LIKELY TO SEE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FOR FRI.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED. MODELS VARY A BIT ON
HOW MUCH THE CANADIAN LOW WILL IMPACT THE HEIGHTS...AND TEMPERATURES
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE 500MB HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COOL SOME...BUT AM UNCERTAIN OF HOW MUCH COOLING
THERE WILL BE. WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS EXPECT THE INLAND
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE 2 TO 6 DEG F COOLER. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD WESTWARD AND MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...NAMELY
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 70 AT THE COAST. UPPER LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND MAY INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS
WOULD BRING INCREASED MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE CREST OF THE CASCADES FOR SUNDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEPICTED BY FORECAST MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
LIKELY REMAINING GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.   CULLEN/TJ &&

.AVIATION...DRY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES. AREAS OF LIFR
STRATUS AND FOG ALONG COAST WILL BURN OFF BY 18Z...WITH CLEAR
SKIES AFTERWARDS. MAY SEE FOG REFORM ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AS N WINDS EASE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...DRY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES. NW
WINDS KICK UP AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING...BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS THOSE ON TUE.                               ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...PRETTY PERSISTENT PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRES TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC THRU SAT THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE N
CAL AND S OREGON COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS. STRONGEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING FROM THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WIND WILL EASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
GRADIENTS DIMINISH. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWITCH
TO A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND LATE SUN.

GENERALLY WIND-WAVE DRIVEN SEAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH STEEP
AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS. A BUILDING NW SWELL LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE
FRI AND SAT...POSSIBLY REACHING 10 FT. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS MODELS INDICATE SEAS FALLING BACK TO AROUND 5 FT BY SUN NIGHT
OR MON. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM TODAY THROUGH FRI FOR ALL OF THE INTERIOR
        LOWLANDS...INCLUDING FOOTHILLS...GORGE AND HOOD VALLEY.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH FRI FOR INTERIOR LOWLANDS...
        INCLUDING CASCADES FOOTHILLS AND GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THROUGH THU ON ALL WATERS.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.