Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 302151
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...LESS LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH...LOWERING TO AROUND 7000-7500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP AS OF MID AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF
GILA...PINAL...AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY WHERE A FLOOD ADVISORY
WAS IN EFFECT...INCLUDED FAR EAST PORTIONS OF THE METRO. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
LESSER SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF THE PHOENIX AREA WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. MODEL CAPE STILL LOOKS QUITE MODEST BUT HELD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...SHOWERS SHOULD
START TO TREND DOWNWARD. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER
SONORA WHICH MAY BRUSH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND KEEP SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING. RAP SHOWS A SEPARATE SMALLER VORT MAX MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN BAJA INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FOR A
RESUMPTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THUS HELD ON TO POPS
FOR TONIGHT...LOWER NUMBERS WESTERN AREAS. OF NOTE...MOST MODELS
INDICATE THE BRUNT OF THE SONORA VORT MAX TRACKING EAST OF THE
PHOENIX AREA. YET ANOTHER VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND BEGINS AFFECTING SOUTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP
FROM THAT FEATURE BUT DEPICT SOME NOTABLE QPF SPREADING WELL INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THUS WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS BEFORE A DOWNTREND BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...ANTICIPATE LESS DYNAMICAL LIFT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS...DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO LOSS OF
UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE. ACCORDINGLY...ANTICIPATE LESS PRECIP
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THAN WE HAD IN THE PRECEDING 24 HOURS.
ANTICIPATE NUISANCE FLOODING TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL AREAS...LESS OVER VALLEY FLOORS OF THE CENTRAL
DESERTS. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WE COULD HAVE A LITTLE BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IF CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH. NAM HAS BEEN DEPICTING THIS
IDEA. THUS HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXITING SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THUS POPS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND WARMER DAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS TO HINDER THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING NECESSARY. PARED BACK ON THE AREAL COVERAGE TO
REMOVE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
SOME DRY ADVECTION MOVES IN THERE. THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
WEST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AND WE
CAN EXPECT DESERT HIGHS TO REACH BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS RISING TO NEAR 80
BY NEXT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
BROAD UPPER LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. THROUGH 08Z SAT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...MEANING
CIGS BETWEEN 15 HUNDRED AND 3 THSD FT AGL...AND VSBYS 3-5 MI WITH
SCT LGT SHWRS. FROM 08Z SAT TO 14Z SAT...RAIN INCREASING. CIGS AND
VSBYS OCNL IFR...MEANING 7-12 HUNDRED FT AGL AND VSBYS NEAR 2
MILES...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 14Z SAT...CIGS 5-7 THSD AGL...ISOLD LGT SHWR.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ/CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE









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