Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 230540 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1040 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

STORMS PRETTY MUCH ALL WRAPPED UP FOR THE EVENING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF CELLS LEAVING FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.
STORMS TODAY WERE IN SPLITTING SUPERCELL MODE AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALOFT. DIDN`T GET ANY REPORTS OF
SEVERE HAIL THIS EVENING, ONLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL
HAIL. THERE WAS A GUST OF 56 MPH AT BARREL SPRINGS RAWS EARLIER
THIS EVENING IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NEVADA, ALTHOUGH
THAT WAS STILL BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. FOR AS MEAN AS THE STORMS
LOOKED ON THE RADAR, IT WAS PRETTY SURPRISING TO NOT GET ANY
REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LOOKING LIKE A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT AND STABLE SITUATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MOISTURE GETS KICKED EAST OF OUR AREA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. HOON


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END TONIGHT AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS RETURNS WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SHORT TERM...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV WILL EXIT
THIS EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS SHEAR
AND MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN DECENT. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NV. ANY STORMS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WILL MOVE OUT BY EARLY
THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE BASIN AND RANGE/NORTHWEST NV BY MID
EVENING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACNW. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
EXTEND ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV WHERE GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE
ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SIERRA
FRONT. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS, GUSTS WILL APPROACH 40-50 MPH. LAKE
WATERS WILL BE LOCALLY CHOPPY IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON LAKE
TAHOE AND MOST LAKES BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA BUT THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL MONITOR AND
ISSUE HEADLINES IF MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS TREND HIGHER. FOR FIRE
WEATHER, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. HOWEVER, WINDS COULD CREATE LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR ONGOING FIRES AND HEADLINES FOR INDIVIDUAL
FIRES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE MUCH MORE STABLE AND DRIER WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
WED-THU. A FEW BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LASSEN COUNTY
CONVERGENCE WED AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS GOING TO BE TOO STRONG
FOR SUFFICIENT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FOR THURSDAY WITH A
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN NV. TEMPERATURES
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH THE BIG
WARMUP NOT LIKELY TO START UNTIL FRIDAY. HOHMANN

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE TO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST, AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RAISE BACK INTO THE 95-105 RANGE WITH
80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE SIERRA.

BY SUNDAY, MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE A LOW CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA AS FAR NORTH AS SIERRA/PLUMAS COUNTIES
AND INTO WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH AND WEST OF RENO TO HAWTHORNE. DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY STORMS
DEVELOP.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THE GFS/ECMWF ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE
IN PULLING THE REMNANT OF A LOW CURRENTLY OVER ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
AROUND THE HIGH AND OVER CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.  THIS MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
BRONG

AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF
KTRK-KRNO-KLOL, THOUGH A STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP JUST TO THE EAST
OF KRNO-KCXP-KMEV, THEN QUICKLY TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH
THE JET OVERHEAD, ANY STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE 50KT
OUTFLOWS AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS A LESSER CONCERN DUE TO STORM
MOTIONS NEAR 20 KTS.

DRIER STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TOMORROW AS A LOW REACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  PEAK GUSTS
TOMORROW COULD REACH 25-30KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  BRONG

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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