Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 061504
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1004 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EST SATURDAY...

MAIN CONCERN WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DEGREE OF
SHEARED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THAT LATEST MODELS SHOW
THINNING OUT SOME BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS COLDER
READINGS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH HIGHS ESPCLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS MORE OF A LATE DAY FLAVOR WHEN MAY SEE A LITTLE
MORE SUN BREAK THROUGH. THUS HAVE TRENDED DOWN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ALTHOUGH GIVEN VERY DRY AIR PER MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WESTERLY
FLOW UNDER SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH INSOLATION
TO PUSH VALUES CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FORECAST. STILL APPEARS
OVERALL HIGHS MOSTLY 40S WITH SOME 30S AT ELEVATION WHERE THICKER
CANOPY PERSISTS. CLOUDS MAY BE THIN ENOUGH TO CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERALL INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AT LEAST EARLY ON OVER THE WEST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA LAST NIGHT...REMAINING
VERY THIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING
EXPECTING A REBOUND BACK ABOVE FREEZING. QUESTION IS WHETHER WE
WILL BE AS WARM AS MOS WHICH IS ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE THICKNESS OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...MODELS SUGGESTING AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OPAQUE WHICH
WILL LIMIT FULL INSOLATION. ATTM HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
TWO COMPARED TO MAV MOS...BUT DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH PER POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS TO BE THINNER THAN FORECAST.

WEATHER MAP SHOWS A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. THE
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STREAMING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH IS PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IS BEGINNING TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...THUS RESULTING IN A
SWIRL OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COAST VCNTY OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...THEN
BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM.

MODELS KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH AS FAR INLAND AS THE COLUMBIA SC
TO RALEIGH DURHAM CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IS SMALL ENOUGH NOT
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM. IN THE EVENT THE STORM WERE TO
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST THEN CHANGES WOULD BE NEEDED TO
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE. FOR NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THREAT OUT OF OUR CWA...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
ENTERTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

THAT BEING SAID... THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL LIKELY SEE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS...THICKENING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT TEMPERATURE...KEEPING US UNDER
GUIDANCE TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY KEEPING US ABOVE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY MORNING...DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ROTATES EASTWARD MONDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GETS KICKED TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST
INTO MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
SUNDAY MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND
NORTHEAST OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

THE RICHER MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE EAST
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW CENTER LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO NAM AND ECMWF. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER SOLUTION...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT POPS
FOR SNOW IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
30SALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE SPREADS QUICKLY EAST ON
MONDAY WITH A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL AREAS TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM A COATING IN THE EAST TO AS
MUCH AS 5 INCHES IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC DAY 3 SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. WILL THE THE MENTION OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO THE HWO. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CLOUD LAYER ABOVE
10KFT...THICKENING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST MAY SPREAD MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. ATTM THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST NOT TO IMPACT
TEMINALS CLOSER TO THE MOUNTIANS. THAT SAID...CLOUD BASES MAY
STILL LOWER UNDER 10KFT VCNTY OF DANVILLE AND GREENSBORO SUNDAY
WITH LOWER CLOUD BASES TO THE EAST AND HIGHER BASES TO THE WEST.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY.

FOR MONDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING
IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW
CIGS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM


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