Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 180220
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1020 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...SKIES BECAME MOSTLY CLEAR OVER LAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT WITH SHALLOW PASSING CLOUDS. EXPECT A
CONTINUED DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ALOFT AND PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE AND OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN BOTH
SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY LIMITED TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PRD. SOME VCSH
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT TJSJ/TJBQ...TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK. SCT CLOUDS
AT FL025/FL060/FL250. NE WINDS 5-10 KT BELOW FL050...WITH STRONG WRLY
FLOW ABV FL200.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR
LESS TO CONTINUE...WITH OFFSHORE SEAS 5 FEET...2-4 FEET NEAR SHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THRU SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN SHOULD EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA
AND ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. E TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 050AGL.
N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE 100AGL VEERING TO N/NE OVERNIGHT AND
THU...DECREASING A BIT 10-15 KNOTS.

MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...2 TO 3 FEET
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTH/WEST COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  82  75  83 /  10  10  10  20
STT  76  85  76  85 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09




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