Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 021944
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 PM AST TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST OF PR TODAY. IT
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING DAYS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PR...ST THOMAS AND ST
CROIX. FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND EASTERN PR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA...CIALES...FLORIDA...LARES...CIALES
MOCAS...LAS MARIAS...MAYAGUEZ...NAGUABO AMONG OTHER
MUNICIPALITIES. THEREFORE...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...AND FLOOD
ADVISORIES WERE REQUIRED ACROSS THESE SECTIONS.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS IT BUILD A DECREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...THE TYPICAL
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS EACH DAY. ANOTHER
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AT LEAST UNTIL EVENING HRS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS DUE TO
+SHRA/TSRA STILL POSSIBLE JBQ/JMZ...ALSO MOUNTAIN OBSCD ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL TIL 02/23Z. THEN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. E
TO ESE SFC WIND AT 10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUST IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA...
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFT 02/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BELOW 4 FEET AND TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  78  92 /  40  40  30  30
STT  78  86  78  87 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

15/27


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