Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 220259
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
859 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND
MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS LEFT A TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL UT. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER AS THE PARENT TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY
PLUME OF SHALLOW WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WASATCH CREST EARLY THIS EVENING...LIKELY AIDED
BY A SUBTLE SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN UT. UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND ADJACENT WASATCH RANGE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD EXIT
THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

THE 700MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
INDUCING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...HOWEVER A COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS
AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY LIMIT MIXING...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
CONFINED NEAR CLIMO. A COMBINATION OF CONTINUED WARMING
ALOFT...INCREASED FLOW AND A MODIFYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KSLC THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE SWITCHING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 06Z. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE THIS WIND SHIFT DOES NOT OCCUR AT ALL...AND
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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