Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 221605
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1005 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TODAY
BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COOLEST 500MB TEMPERATURES...AROUND -12C...ARE
CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY
WARM FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS...UPDATED POPS
TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
WEST. STILL FEEL THEY ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH...WITH THE 13Z HRRR
SUPPORTING THIS IDEA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DEVELOPS LITTLE
CONVECTION WEST OF THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
WATCH TRENDS...BUT EVEN THE CURRENT POP GRIDS FOR LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE EXCESSIVE. ALSO DECREASED
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FAIRLY
STRONG...FALL-LIKE STORM MAY IMPACT THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z. THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 18-21Z...WHICH MAY CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...DECAYING FOR GOOD THIS
EVENING. LIGHTNING AND A BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

MEANWHILE...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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