Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 021141
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
741 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG PERSIST...MAINLY AFFECTING PGD
BUT COULD ALSO BRING A BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILING/VISIBILITY TO OTHER
TERMINALS BEFORE 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. PLAINS TO THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
RIDGING REACHED NORTH OVER ATLANTIC WATERS...FROM CUBA TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...A LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY TRAILED A COLD
FRONT THAT STRETCHED THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED
ACROSS NORTHERN FL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ROTATES DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE GULF REGION...AND PUSHES
THE UPPER RIDGE EAST. IN RESPONSE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SINKS INTO SOUTHERN FL.

ONE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE LATER THIS AFTER-
NOON WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING IN TUE. THE DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE CAPPING INVERSION OF THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TUE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
RELAXED ENOUGH FOR SEA BREEZES TO SHIFT LOW LEVEL FLOW TO ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH THE PREVAILING
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUE. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
MID-RANGE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE INLAND.
ON TUE...WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE APPROACHING FRONT...SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE ISOLATED TO HIGH END SCATTERED...WITH THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW RESULTING IN THE MOST COVERAGE INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY TUE.

MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE START OF THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS CYCLONE...FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE NATURE COAST. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING
UPPER SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS FEATURE
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD...IT WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING KICK TO SHUNT
THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. AS THIS OCCURS...A FRONTALLY-FORCED BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION.

IN ADDITION TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BRING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH IT. SOME VEERING OF WINDS AND A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED WITH HEIGHT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE
WIND SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION TO SOME EXTENT...BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THIS TO
SOME EXTENT. IN ALL..THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
LOOKS TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AT
THIS TIME LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A LOT CAN
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY...SO IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO CHECK
BACK FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH MUCH
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS
THE GULF STATES FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL DAYS
OF FABULOUS WEATHER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES...AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE...THOUGH NO RAIN APPEARS LIKELY FOLLOWING
WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT.

AVIATION...
02/06Z TAF CYCLE: PREVAILING VFR WITH OCNL BKN CU/SC LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING THEN BKN AC/CI LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA VCNTY
LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW AFT 18Z-20Z. LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS SHIFT
THROUGH THE SOUTH TO SW TO WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
RATHER BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO.
ALTHOUGH INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE GULF AND BRINGING WINDS THAT MAY REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR MID-WEEK WITH INCREASING ODDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND PREVAILING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES. THEN MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  85  73 /  10  10  30  40
FMY  89  73  88  73 /  20  20  30  20
GIF  90  71  87  70 /  30  30  50  20
SRQ  83  73  83  73 /  10  10  30  30
BKV  88  68  84  67 /  20  10  40  50
SPG  86  74  84  73 /  10  10  30  40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  85  73 /  10  10  30  40
FMY  89  73  88  73 /  20  20  30  20
GIF  90  71  87  70 /  30  30  50  20
SRQ  83  73  83  73 /  10  10  30  30
BKV  88  68  84  67 /  20  10  40  50
SPG  86  74  84  73 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JILLSON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN



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