Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 310758
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
358 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND TOWARD THE COAST FROM AROUND THE TAMPA BAY
REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE NATURE COAST. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND BEGIN TO EXPAND OVER COASTAL AREAS AS WE
START THE DAY.

THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY...WITH THE
FORECAST AREA RESIDING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH TODAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR
TODAY WITH THESE FEATURES IN PLACE AND WITH CONTINUING DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WE SHOULD AGAIN HAVE A DRY PERIOD TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAND
AREA...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING
OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING A BAND OF EVEN
HIGHER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES)
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY WET DAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST REGION. IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH AS THIS
SET-UP IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SUPPORT AN AMPLIFYING
POSITIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE THIS TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN
GULF REGION WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MEANDERS NORTH TO THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH THE
TROUGHING AND A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG
COASTAL LOCATIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
AXIS AND BEST LOW LEVEL COASTAL CONVERGENCE FROM THE MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESIDE.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING NORTH TO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWER AND
STORM REGIME SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS FOCUSING OVER INLAND LOCATIONS EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST WHERE
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE SO FAR THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOIST CONDITIONS IN
PLACE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR ALL SITES. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN
TONIGHT...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM NEAR
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH WIND SPEEDS FORECAST TO REACH
EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
NATURE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  77  86  77 /  60  40  70  40
FMY  90  77  90  76 /  50  20  40  20
GIF  89  75  88  74 /  60  20  70  30
SRQ  87  78  87  77 /  60  40  60  30
BKV  88  75  87  74 /  60  40  70  40
SPG  87  78  87  78 /  60  40  70  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM...57/MCMICHAEL



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