Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 191723
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1223 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

AVIATION...
19/18Z. Band of SHRA with lower CIGs and gusty winds is just
about at TPA/PIE and will continue southeastward through
the afternoon but losing some steam as it does. What ever is
left of the band will clear the southern sites around 23Z.
Gusty NW-N winds through the afternoon become N over night
then NE to ENE Mon.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 917 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017/

DISCUSSION (Today)...
Main item of interest is the cold front...currently across northern
Fl...sliding southward. Energy with the associated upper level
trough will remain north of the state line and the front is
accompanied by a narrow swath of somewhat deeper moisture...model
PWAT values peak out in the 1.4 to 1.7 inch range. Currently
showers are across Levy County and moving into Citrus County...
these will progress southward during the rest of the day and
becomes diffuse from Tampa Bay south. Highs this afternoon will
end up near normal in the north but slightly above in the south.
Forecasts are on track overall but have made minor timing and
location adjustments mainly for the Nature Coast. But these will
have little effect in any text forecasts.

MARINE...
Cold front is pushing into the northern waters with showers and
strong northerly winds in it/s wake. These winds will be at
caution speeds today for some of the northern zones then increase
to advisory speeds tonight for most zones. High pressure tracks
through the Gulf coast early in the week...allowing winds to
diminish Mon night or Tue.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  51  75  63  76 /   0  10  20  70
FMY  59  78  65  79 /  10  10  20  70
GIF  50  74  61  77 /   0  10  10  70
SRQ  54  76  64  77 /   0  10  30  70
BKV  45  74  58  76 /   0  10  20  70
SPG  53  74  64  75 /   0  10  30  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION...09/Rude
DISCUSSION/MARINE...09/Rude


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