Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 051441
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1041 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH RATHER LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE
THE STORMS OVER THE GULF WIND DOWN. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES...WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
THEREFORE...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN OVER LAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZES GET UNDERWAY AND SPREAD INLAND AND GENERALLY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD WITH THE OVERALL FLOW. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER
INLAND AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 75...BUT WITH EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER CONVECTION COULD COME BACK
TO THE COAST THIS EVENING. OVERALL THE PRESENT GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST
LOOK OK AND NO MORNING UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING CAUSING SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE RATHER LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THIS WEEKEND...BUT BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON. ONLY HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  75  88  75 /  60  30  60  30
FMY  91  75  89  75 /  50  30  60  30
GIF  91  73  89  73 /  60  30  70  30
SRQ  90  74  88  74 /  40  30  50  40
BKV  91  72  89  72 /  60  30  50  30
SPG  89  78  88  77 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING



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