Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 241150
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
750 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Widespread prevailing MVFR cigs and vsby with brief IFR
conditions associated with rain and embedded thunderstorms
which will be moving in from the Gulf associated with an
approaching cold front will begin to impact the northern
terminals after 15Z, with these conditions then spreading
south to the southern terminals after 20Z. Southwest winds
in the 12 to 15 knot range with gusts up to 20 knots early
this morning will increase to 18 to 20 knots with frequent
gusts above 25 knots expected after 16Z.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 704 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017/

UPDATE...
Per coordination with the Storm Prediction Center will
update the zones and coastal waters forecasts shortly to
reflect Tornado watch 261 in effect for Levy, Citrus, and
Sumter counties as well as the near and offshore coastal
waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River out 60nm which
is in effect until 3 PM EDT this afternoon.

Prev Discussion... /issued 514 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today-Thursday)...
An upper trough will sweep through the area on Thursday with
SW flow in place over the area today and upper
energy/shortwaves moving through the flow this afternoon and
evening. At the surface, the front will gradually move
through the area tonight and clear the area Thursday as some
cooler and drier air moves in behind the front.

For today and tonight, winds will be increasing and become
gusty later this morning and continue through this evening.
A Lake Wind Advisory is in place for these winds. Showers
and thunderstorms will move through the area with a slight
risk of a few severe storms. Damaging winds, heavy rainfall,
deadly lightning, and possibly an isolated tornado will be
main hazards possible with the storms. At the beaches, some
coastal flooding is possible during high tides and there is
a high rip current risk in place. Moderate coastal flooding
is possible for Levy and Citrus counties with 2 to 3 feet of
above normal tides, and minor coastal flooding possible from
Hernando south through Sarasota counties with 1 to 2 feet of
above normal tides. Highs will be around 80 north to the mid
80s south this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the mid to
upper 60s north and in the lower to mid 70s central and
south.

The rains will be diminishing and pushing south of the area
for Thursday, with some drier and cooler air moving into the
area as the front exits to the south and high pressure
starts to build in. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night - Tuesday)...
For the start of the long term period, a closed upper low sits over
the eastern Great Lakes with troughing extending south along the
eastern seaboard. The upper low moves northeast toward Nova Scotia
by the weekend as weak upper level ridging moves over the southeast
U.S. No significant change in the upper level pattern is expected
beyond the weekend. On the surface, the parent low sits over the
southeast Great Lakes while the triple point low moves off the New
England coastline. The associated frontal boundary extends south
just west of Bermuda, then further southward over the Bahamas and
southern Florida. Behind this front, high pressure builds in
bringing rain-free and cooler conditions. The cool down on Thursday
will be short-lived with average to slightly above average temps
expected by Friday and into the weekend.


MARINE...
SCA conditions will overspread the area this morning with
winds of 20 to 25 knots and gusts to gale force through the
day. Winds will remain high through early Thursday morning,
and then gradually subside through the late morning and
afternoon. No further headlines are expected through the
period as high pressure builds into the area behind the
front. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today and
tonight with strong winds, heavy rainfall, deadly
lightning, and isolated waterspouts possible with the
storms. Storms will clear out of the area Thursday morning,
with some scattered storms possible later in the week with
sea breeze activity.

FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns. Dispersions will be high with the strong and
gusty winds, but there will be showers and storms through
the day.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  82  72  82  69 /  90  60  20   0
FMY  87  75  85  70 /  60  80  50   0
GIF  85  70  84  65 /  80  60  20   0
SRQ  83  74  82  69 /  80  60  20   0
BKV  82  68  81  59 /  80  60  30   0
SPG  83  73  81  71 /  90  60  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT
     this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal
     Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-
     Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-
     Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood
     to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION...57/McMichael
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
LONG TERM...74/Wynn



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