Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 251344
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
944 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
SOME DRIER AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STARTING TO WORK ITS
WAY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST HI-
RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SITUATION SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE GETTING PINNED RIGHT AT
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST FROM AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD...WHICH IS WHERE
THE BEST CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
90S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS FAR AS THE ONGOING
FORECAST...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WX SLIGHTLY TO KEEP NUMEROUS
WORDING CONFINED TO THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD...AS
DISCUSSED ABOVE...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL SO FAR THIS MORNING. VCTS FOR ALL SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AND WILL CONSIDER ADDING TEMPO GROUPS WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL TRY TO TURN WINDS TO A
MORE ONSHORE DIRECTION...BUT THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RIGHT AT THE COAST...WITH KSRQ HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE
WINDS TURN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND 15 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN
ONSHORE AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OVER LAND AREAS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  75  91  73 /  60  40  60  20
FMY  92  74  92  72 /  60  30  50  20
GIF  92  73  92  71 /  40  10  30   0
SRQ  91  74  90  73 /  60  50  60  20
BKV  92  72  91  70 /  50  20  60  20
SPG  91  77  90  75 /  60  50  60  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...05/CARLISLE



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