Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 230734
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
334 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today - Sunday)...
A similar pattern from Friday will remain in place across
the area today. High pressure will continue to ridge
southward from the northeast U.S. while Hurricane Maria
moves north well east of the Florida peninsula. This pattern
will keep an east to northeast flow in place across the
region. Sufficiently deep atmospheric moisture is expected
with PWs remaining around 2 inches. This should support
high-end SCT coverage of showers and storms with rain
chances around 50 percent. Low-level flow will keep storms
again moving from east to west across the peninsula.
Afternoon temperatures will top out near 90s with overnight
lows in the low to mid 70s. Sunday will feature more of the
same with rain chances perhaps just a tad lower compared to
Saturday.

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Next Saturday)...
The dominant weather features across the CONUS at the start
of the  medium to long range period will be a potent upper
trough extending over the Rockies and Hurricane Maria off
the southeast U.S. coast.

The surface weather pattern will evolve substantially
through the  medium range as Maria lifts northward, and
surface high pressure is nudged westward. This will place
much of the region within light northerly flow. One last day
of widely scattered showers and storms is expected Monday,
before drier air advects southward. The intrusion of drier
air coupled with weak subsidence to the west of Hurricane
Maria will generally prevent any shower or thunderstorm
development from Tuesday through the end of the week. Recent
long range models show Maria will become nearly stationary
off the Mid- Atlantic coast, thus reinforcing the potential
for a relatively long dry spell as the surface and upper air
pattern remains fairly stagnant.

Temperatures look to remain near seasonal normals with highs
in the  lower to possibly mid 90s, and lows in the low to
mid 70s. Depending on the extent of dryness, a couple of
days could see highs near record levels, as we have seen
this past week. ...


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR expected outside of any showers and storms. Light winds
overnight will become more NE to E after day break but
generally  below 10 kts. VCTS mentioned area wide by early
afternoon as sct thunderstorms will begin to develop across
the area with a motion towards the Gulf Coast. As always,
localized MVFR/IFR will be possible in and around
thunderstorms with localized gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
The east to northeast flow will continue with an evening
surge expected tonight but winds should remain around 15
knots or less. Then during Sunday through Tuesday the flow
will diminish some as Maria moves by well to the east of
Florida with the west coast sea breeze developing near the
coast each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns for the next few days.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  89  75  91  75 /  50  10  30  20
FMY  90  74  91  75 /  50  10  40  30
GIF  89  73  91  73 /  50  10  30  10
SRQ  90  73  90  75 /  50  20  30  30
BKV  89  72  91  71 /  50  10  30  10
SPG  89  76  89  76 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/McKaughan
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin



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