Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 040722
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
322 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
TODAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME AS SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG CONVERGING SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES LATE IN THE DAY. THERE ARE ONLY SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY...SO
EXPECT TO SEE SOME RATHER STRONG STORMS AGAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A BIT
WEAKER...AND WHILE STEERING CURRENTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF AN INLAND PUSH WITH STRONGER SEA
BREEZES FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH. CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES
WILL STILL BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING STORMS TO
LINGER CLOSER TO I-75 AND PERHAPS EVEN PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST.

ANY LINGERING STORMS WILL COME TO AN END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER THAT.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF. A RATHER COLD POOL OF AIR
AT 500 MB WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY
MORNING. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...THE RAIN COOLED AIR WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NATURE COAST BY AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE OUR NORMAL AFTERNOON
STORMS AND COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL FROM SOME
OF OUR STRONGER STORMS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
BOTH GFS AND EURO FORECAST A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER KY/TN AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS
IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL INCREASE
MORNING RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 ON MONDAY. TO THE
SOUTH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
CREATE SCATTERED STORMS MOVING INTO HIGHLANDS COUNTY AROUND NOON.

CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS ON TUESDAY. WEAK TROUGH IN THE AREA
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DISSIPATES AND TUTT MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS
WITH SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THAT
MEANS BEST CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ALONG THE COAST
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY AND ALSO EAST OF A LINE FROM TAMPA TO THE
VILLAGES.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE TUTT MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. CIRCULATION AROUND THE TUTT COULD PULL SOME
DRIER AIR INTO FORECAST AREA SO POPS WILL DROP A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE STORMS WILL BE
LAL...PGD...FMY...AND RSW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF GENERALLY
LIGHT EASTERLY. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL TURN WINDS ONSHORE NEAR
THE COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SMOKE DISPERSIONS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  92  78 /  50  10  50  20
FMY  93  75  93  76 /  60  20  50  20
GIF  95  76  93  75 /  60  30  70  30
SRQ  92  76  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
BKV  95  73  92  73 /  50  20  60  20
SPG  92  80  91  79 /  30  10  50  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...NOAH


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