Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 241400
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1000 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
LOOKING AT CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE DRY AIR THAT LIMITED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY IS STILL IN PLACE OVER ABOUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA HAS
MOISTENED. THIS CHANGE IS ALSO NOTED VIA THE KTBW MORNING SOUNDING
COMPARED WITH THE ONE FROM YESTERDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
AFFECTING COASTAL AREAS OF SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTIES. THE
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED RIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY...CALM WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOR TODAY WILL AGAIN SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS THERE...BUT DID MAKE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT
TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS AT
SITES CLOSE TO THE COAST WILL BE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL HANDLE
WITH TEMPOS IF NEEDED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KLAL...WHICH COULD CAUSE TEMPO MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ABOUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL
SINK SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDERS WITH A SOUTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW CONTINUING WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR
SHORE EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  91  78 /  20  20  40  20
FMY  93  77  92  77 /  30  20  40  20
GIF  94  76  94  75 /  40  20  50  20
SRQ  92  78  91  78 /  20  20  30  20
BKV  94  73  93  74 /  30  20  40  20
SPG  92  80  91  81 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN AND 08/PERRINI
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS





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