Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 221407
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1007 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Pleasant Fall weather conditions will prevail over the next couple
of days in the wake of a cold front that moved through the area
last night. Some of the coolest and driest air of the season has
moved in, with precipitable water readings from this mornings
upper air sounding observed at 0.32 inches, which is near record
low for this date. Light north winds will become gusty this
afternoon with highs in the middle and upper 70s. Increased winds
over the waters overnight have generated large swell, that will
result in increased wave action at area beaches, and there will be
a heightened risk of rip currents through the afternoon hours.
Otherwise, no weather concerns are expected. Enjoy the Fall
.AVIATION (12z TAFs)...
In the wake of a cold front, northerly winds will become
northwesterly this afternoon, increasing and becoming gusty.
Winds will then decrease this evening and shift to the
northeast. Otherwise, VFR conditions to prevail through the
Advisory level winds and seas will persist for another couple of
hours over the near and offshore waters. By early afternoon, winds
will decrease substantially, with gradually improving seas. Will
maintain the small craft advisory through 11 am, likely allowing
it to expire thereafter. Expect cautionary winds may occur for a
few hours over the offshore waters overnight with an easterly wind
surge. High pressure will settle in over the waters from Sunday
into early next week, with light easterly winds.
Elevated fire danger may exist for a few hours this afternoon as
humidities fall to 30 to 35 percent with spotty areas of ERC
values in the 30 to 35 range. However, winds look to generally
remain less than 15 mph, and red flag conditions are not expected.
Humidities will slowly increase through the first half of next
week as easterly flow brings Atlantic moisture into the region.
This combined with light winds will generally limit any fire
weather concerns into early next week.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 76 54 78 60 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 78 55 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 76 53 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 75 55 78 60 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 75 48 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 75 61 78 62 / 0 0 0 0
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs
FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach
to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood
to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.