Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 261557
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
955 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POP GRID. OVERALL
FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO CONTINUES
ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTH AND EAST. BROAD AREA OF RAIN WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1555Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 20Z
THROUGH 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH AREAS MVFR IN
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
WASHINGTON STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF
INCH TO ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, FLOODING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT BUT RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MPJ

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  66  48  68  48 /  70  40  50  40
CTB  64  44  69  45 /  70  40  60  40
HLN  71  50  68  48 /  50  40  60  40
BZN  67  44  65  44 /  60  50  50  50
WEY  57  36  58  35 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  65  42  63  44 /  60  50  60  50
HVR  74  47  75  46 /  50  30  50  40
LWT  65  45  67  46 /  60  40  70  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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