Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 011802
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1200 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.UPDATE...

Lowered pops/qpf/sky cover over north-central Montana this morning
based on radar/satellite trends, but showers will remain possible
over southwest Montana as an upper-level shortwave moves across
the region. The remainder of the forecast is on track so made no
further changes. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Expect clearing skies this afternoon. A cold front will move south
from the Canadian border after 09Z Thursday. Expect snow, rain, and
occasional MVFR/IFR conditions to accompany the front. The front
works its way south rather quickly, exiting Central MT by 18Z.
Southwest MT may not see much in the way of impacts. Brief LIFR may
develop over Central MT with frontal passage, along with gusty
northerly winds, up to 30kts. The worst conditions are expected from
10Z to 19Z. Conditions should return to full VFR after 21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2014/
Today through Friday...An upper trough over the forecast area this
morning will move out of the forecast area by early afternoon as
an upper ridge moves into northwest Montana. This ridge will then
quickly move into eastern Montana by midnight. Another upper
trough will move southeast through Montana late tonight through
Thursday. The associated cold front is expected to be near the
Canadian border at midnight. It will then sweep south through the
area reaching a Helena-White Sulphur Springs line around 6 am and
the Idaho border by late Thursday afternoon. Models forecast
decent lift with the trough and will also see low level lift near
and behind the cold front. The combination of the lift and a moist
airmass will lead to widespread precipitation beginning in the
northwest zones later tonight then spreading to central Montana
early Thursday morning. As for the type of precipitation for a few
towns..expect that Cut Bank will see snow..Havre rain..and Great
Falls and Lewistown a mix of rain and snow. If Helena and Bozeman
see precipitation it should be in the form of rain. Still expect
several inches of snow for western portions of Glacier County
including Glacier National Park so have issued a winter weather
advisory for that area for late tonight and Thursday morning.
Precipitation will diminish Thursday afternoon over the forecast
area as the trough moves into the western Dakotas by late afternoon.
Expect dry weather Thursday night through Friday due to the
approach of an upper ridge from the west. Highs only in the 40s
for the lower elevations Thursday should rebound to the upper 50s
and lower 60s by Friday. Blank

Friday night through Wednesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will be over the region from Friday night into Monday.
As a result...mostly dry and mild conditions can be expected over
the region. There is a very small chance for an isolated shower
over the Rocky Mountain Front and north of Highway 2...but
confidence is quite low in the precip happening. It will be a bit
windy over the region Friday night into Saturday...and there is a
small potential for high wind highlights over the Rocky Mountain
Front. For Tuesday through Wednesday...the upper level ridge
begins to break down...and precipitation chances increase just a
bit over the northern portions of the region. Again...confidence
is low in determining when/where the light precipitation will
fall. Temperatures will be above normal on Tuesday...then fall a
few degrees for Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  44  29  60 /  50  80   0   0
CTB  30  44  29  61 /  80  50   0   0
HLN  39  49  31  64 /   0  40   0   0
BZN  32  50  27  59 /   0  20   0   0
WEY  22  48  19  53 /  10  10   0   0
DLN  32  53  28  62 /   0  10   0   0
HVR  37  46  25  57 /  50  30   0   0
LWT  35  44  28  57 /  20  80   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon MDT
Thursday Eastern Glacier...Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

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