Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 301135
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Somewhat complex upper troughing was moving southeast through the
Central Plains early this morning with rather widespread area of
higher potential vorticity aloft. Despite OAX and TOP 0Z soundings
showing dewpoint depressions of at least 10C throughout the
troposphere, isolated convection developed ahead of the trough in
southeast Nebraska in rather steep mid level lapse rates. As the
trough continues southeast, hard to rule out similar activity
developing in the local area. Will keep chances rather small for
most locations, with some mention in far eastern locations mainly
this morning as the trough exits. Have opted to keep thunder mention
out given quite limited coverage so far, but could see a strike or
two. Falling pressures ahead of a weak surface low with this upper
trough and some mid cloud keeping temps up, with recent 9 degree
jump up at MHK. Continued low level warm air advection into the
morning hours should counteract later day modest cold air advection
as mixing depths increase for a slightly warmer and noticeably
windier day than Wednesday, with mid 60s to lower 70s anticipated.

Evening hours see clear skies and weakening winds, but stronger cold
surge comes south overnight with an increase in north winds and some
stratus potential as secondary upper trough rotates south out of
southern Canada. Temps fall back to near freezing levels in the
north, in areas that experienced similar values Wednesday morning
so at this point have no plans for headlines.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Canadian airmass continues to be driven southward on the back
side of the upper trof over the Great Lakes on Friday. Highs
will struggle to rise into the lower to middle 40s. As center of
the surface high moves over western Missouri, temperatures quickly
fall below freezing in the later evening hours and drop into the
20s across the area by early Saturday. Although most area growers
have ended their growing season, giving some consideration to the
last few warm weeks at the end of the season, will issue what
will be the last freeze warning for the year in the remaining
counties that have not yet had a hard freeze. With quick return to
warm advection on Saturday, should make it into the upper 40s to
low 50s by Saturday afternoon. Saturday night not as cold with warm
advection continuing and southerly surface winds keeping lows
around 40. Warming trend should bring highs Sunday afternoon back
into the 60s.

Rain chances could start with some light rain in warm air
advection regime overnight Sunday night into Monday, but better
chances come in the morning hours on Monday as lift from
approaching upper wave interacts with moisture streaming into the
area from the south southwest. Rain gets pushes southeast quickly
however, and will keep a short window of better rain chances
before moving southeast. EC is a bit slower to progress rain
chances to SE, so will have rain chances for the day on Tuesday
before ending in the evening in the southeast. Wednesday near
seasonal temperatures and dry in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR conditions should persist through much of the forecast. LLWS
conditions slowly dissipating per radar and early radiosonde data.
Initial frontal passage brings in northwest winds early on, with a
secondary surge possibly allowing a stratus deck to form after
04Z. Unsure on development or persistence of a ceiling at this
point however.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-
012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65





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