Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 222101
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
201 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR
EAST WITH THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.18 INCHES...
WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE COMING FROM THE 625-475MB LAYER.
OTHERWISE...THE LOWER LEVELS WERE QUITE DRY...AS WELL AS A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER AT AROUND 450MB...WHICH COINCIDED WITH AN
INVERSION/CAP. THAT SAID...THE SOUNDING WAS STABLE WITH VERY LITTLE
PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE COUNTY.

A DEFINITE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS TO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION OVER COLORADO. BOTH THE U OF A WRF/GFS AND WRF/NAM SEEM TO
SHOW THE BEST DEPICTION OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN COCHISE COUNTY AND
TRYING TO SPREAD TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BUT NOT QUITE BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE TUCSON
AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY IT SHOWS ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL AREAS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SPREADING WEST INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS THEN PROG DRY
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL REDUCE THE POP
FORECAST TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST PLACES AND ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT MOSTLY
TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MONSOON
SHOULD KICK BACK IN THIS WEEKEND IN EARNEST...WITH THE HIGH
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST WITH A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ON SATURDAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS A RESULT...LOOKING AT SCATTERED
CATEGORY POPS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN
EMPHASIS FOR AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES...AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH BEING GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER EITHER THE FOUR CORNERS OR NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE HIGH SETS
UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED
DESERT/VALLEY POPS AND SCATTERED FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEST OF KTUS AND A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL EAST
TO SOUTH OF KTUS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT A
BIT WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE MUCH OF PIMA COUNTY. THERE WILL
PERHAPS BE A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING
TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BROST







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