Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 252201
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 PM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THRU EARLY WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS TO KEEP SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. DON`T SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMING OUT OF THIS...BUT CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. THAT BEING
SAID...HAVE CONTINUED THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AS BEST MOISTURE EXISTS THERE. EVEN THIS MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY BE PUSHED EASTWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SLIDES EAST
AND USHERS IN DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.

BY MID WEEK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES IN WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK UP...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO...WEDNESDAY A WEAK EASTERLY WIND IS
PROGGED MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO ALSO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY
WINDS...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THRU THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/00Z.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
BRING A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY AROUND 10K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
OVERCAST CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD SUNDAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY-NWLY 12-18 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20-40 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS TO 20S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES DURING THE PERIOD. SOME GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL THEN BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TUESDAY. EXPECT SOME
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEADOWS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





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