Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 071610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MUCH WARMER THIS WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON
HIGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARMING
BELOW 700MB AND THAT WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE TODAY BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON. WE REMAIN
QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER 1/4 OF AN INCH AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THIS MORNING.
A WEAK IMPULSE UNDERCUTTING THE BASE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTHERN SKY BUT NO RAIN. THIS FOLLOWS THE CURRENT
FORECAST QUITE WELL...NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 08/18Z.
FEW-SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
WIND WILL MAINTAIN A SELY TO NELY DIRECTION AT 5-15 KTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK UNDER LARGE SCALE RIDGING.
EASTERLY 20-FT WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH EXPAND EWD
OVER THE PACIFIC NW/GREAT BASIN REGION BY TUE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CENTERED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE EWD INTO SRN SONORA MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY TUE. ALTHOUGH THE
LOWER AND MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY TODAY INTO MON.

07/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FLATTENING THE UPPER
RIDGE SOMEWHAT OVER THE WRN CONUS WED. THE UPPER RIDGE IS THEN
PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AGAIN THUR-FRI. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD
TOWARD THE SRN CALIF/NRN BAJA COASTS. THIS PATTERN MAY YIELD MORE
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS BUT CERTAINLY NO PRECIP FOR SE ARIZONA.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT X-Y DEGS WARMER VERSUS
TEMPS ACHIEVED SAT FOLLOWED BY A FEW DEGS OF ADDITIONAL WARMING MON.
EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-FRI...WITH HIGH
TEMPS TO RANGE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER/FRANCIS/FRENCH


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