Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 032151
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWED OUT NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST. THIS UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED TO MOVE
TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL KINDA PHASE WITH A TROF
DROPPING S FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND
SRN COCHISE COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT
STILL MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF 1-4".
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY FROM KTUS SOUTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A CHANCE
OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-TSRA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THUS...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DUE TO SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS WEDNESDAY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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