Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FGUS75 KSLC 041921

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Salt Lake City
Flood Potential Outlook
121 pm May 4th, 2017

             Utah Flood Potential Outlook
                       May 4th, 2017

The 2017 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt remains high
for Weber, Provo, Duchesne and Bear River basins of Utah. This
potential is due to the much above median snow conditions in all of
these areas. It should also be emphasized that the threat of spring
flooding will largely be determined by hydrometeorologic events that
occur during the next few months. Conditions in the Virgin and
Sevier River basin remain near normal. Conditions in the Six Creeks
basin near Salt Lake City are above average but not as high as in
the Provo, Weber, Bear or Duchesne and Green River Basins.

April month to date precipitation totals were once again well above
average across northern Utah, while slightly below average across
central and southern Utah. The snow water equivalent in the Weber,
Provo, Duchesne and Bear River basins remain much above normal with
many of our snow gaging locations remaining well above the annual
peak snowpack which typically occur in mid April or early May. The
current snow water equivalent is 150% of median in the Weber River
drainage, 190% of median in the Provo River drainage, 140% of median
in the Duchesne and 185% of median in the Bear River headwaters.
Many of Utah`s SNOTEL`s have peaked in the top 3 highest years for
the period of record.

Current volumetric forecasts for the April through July runoff
period are much above average for all of the above mentioned basins
with the exception of those in south central and southern Utah.

Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff
and consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows may roughly
correspond to volumetric flows in their magnitude. It is also
important to keep in mind that an extended period of much above
normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt period can
cause or exacerbate flooding problems during any year.

Along with the heightened flood potential for the above mentioned
rivers and basins, all snowmelt fed rivers across namely northern
and central Utah will become very dangerous as snowmelt and
associated runoff increase over the next few months.

The spring runoff flood potential will continue to be updated as
conditions evolve.

Glen Merrill
Meteorologist National Weather Service

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