Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 231942

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


Ongoing forecast is generally on track, with minor spatial changes
made to the elevated delineation in portions of New Mexico and the
Texas Panhandle.  Elevated (and perhaps locally critical) fire
weather conditions appear likely in more of western/central New
Mexico based on recent model guidance...and although RH values
should not fall to critical thresholds in the Texas Panhandle, very
strong surface winds west of a strong surface low could pose a risk
for rapid fire spread amidst dry fuels.

Elsewhere, a complex surface pattern will exist in portions of
Oklahoma, with varied degrees of boundary layer warming/drying
indicated along the I-35 corridor of Oklahoma and north/central
Texas.  Minimal changes were made to the eastern extent of the
critical fire weather delineation for this forecast, although the
eastward/northward extent of the attendant fire weather threat will
be modulated by how far east boundary layer mixing/drying can occur
during the afternoon.  Further refinements of these areas will
likely be needed in later outlooks.

..Cook.. 03/23/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0257 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

A strong deep-layer cyclone over the central High Plains on Friday
morning is expected to weaken somewhat as it moves slowly eastward
through the period. A dryline associated with the cyclone will move
into portions of central OK/north-central TX during the afternoon,
as a trailing cold front sweeps through portions of New Mexico and
West Texas. Critical conditions are possible in the wake of the
dryline and cold front.

...New Mexico/West Texas into the central/southern Plains...
While some cooling is expected on Friday, critical conditions are
expected to develop within the dry and windy post-frontal regime
from southeast New Mexico into portions of West Texas. Sustained
westerly winds of 20-25 MPH are expected in this area, while RH
values will fall into the 10-20% range.

Further northeast into portions of north Texas, Oklahoma, and
southern Kansas, a corridor of elevated to potentially critical
conditions is expected Friday afternoon immediately behind the
dryline and ahead of the cold front. The best chance of critical
conditions in this regime appears to be from western north TX into
southwest/central OK, where southwesterly winds of 20-30 MPH will
combine with minimum RH values of 10-20%. Considerable uncertainty
remains regarding the northward and eastward extent of the critical
threat, but at least elevated conditions are possible into portions
of eastern OK and south-central KS.

While some antecedent rainfall is possible over portions of the
elevated and critical areas, at this time the probability of wetting
rainfall appears rather low.

...Please see for graphic product...

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