Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 241601
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1100 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

                   VALID APRIL 24 THROUGH APRIL 29

...ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASING LATE SUNDAY FOR FAR EAST TEXAS...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A cold front is passing through Texas this morning with strong
northwest winds behind it. Satellite imagery shows a fine line of
clouds developing along the leading edge of the front. Thunderstorms
are possible along this line but no widespread convective activity
is anticipated for the remainder of the morning. There is a
possibility of storms developing along the Texas coast as the cold
front encounters moist offshore winds later this afternoon.
Southerly winds return tomorrow as the front leaves the region.

Starting later this weekend, there is the chance of widespread
significant rainfall for the WGRFC area.  The more reliable
meteorological models have consistently advertised well-organized
stronger Pacific storm moving across the California Coast and cross
the Desert Southwest this weekend.  These models are showing a
favorable environment for the development of heavy rainfall over the
eastern two thirds of the WGRFC area starting Sunday, and staying in
the forecast through Monday.

As this system approaches from the northwest, a dryline is expected
to provide enough lift by the late afternoon to trigger severe
storms with associated hail and damaging winds. As the upper level
low nears north Texas on Sunday convective activity will be possible
to the east of the dryline.  The models are suggesting moderately
heavy rainfall amounts in far northeast Texas late Sunday evening
into Monday morning.  We will continue to monitor this event and
update accordingly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are
forecast for a narrow band from Del Rio north through Wichita Falls
into Oklahoma.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 2.00 inches
are forecast for the eastern quarter of Texas with the heaviest
amounts near Nacogdoches and northeastward into Louisiana and
Arkansas.

The drought conditions continue to deteriorate over most of the
region.  Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of Texas remain in some
level of drought category. In addition, 29% of Texas and 25% of New
Mexico are in extreme drought.  Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are,
on average, less than 65% full.  This is below average for this time
of year, with average being about 80% full.  There is considerable
variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the
western half of the state below 50% full.  Due to the dry soil
moisture conditions, the rainfall forecast over the next 5 days will
not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff.  Mainstem river
flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Amistad releases are elevating flows along the mainstem from Amistad
downstream to Falcon Lake.  No significant impacts are expected,
although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is fluctuating above
an action level that may affect pumps and livestock in the area.
The duration of Amistad releases is unknown at this time.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant flooding is expected from rainfall forecast in the
next 5 days. An event expected toward the end of the five day period
across eastern Texas is being monitored, but timing and location
shifts each model run make local forecast determinations difficult
and uncertain.  However, with our best predictions on expected
rainfall, no significant river flooding is expected, although
localized river responses with action and flood stage are possible
within the Sabine and Neches River systems; primarily within
headwater streams and tributaries.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$





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