Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 301640
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1140 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

                   VALID MARCH 30 THROUGH APRIL 4

...AFTER TWO DRY DAYS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE WGRFC AREA...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A closed low pressure system has moved away from the WGRFC area the
past 24 hours and is located southwest of Kansas City this morning.
As this low passed across Oklahoma and Kansas last night there was
some wrap-around rain over the western parts of north Texas.  There
also was some additional thunderstorms over east and southeast Texas
and western Louisiana.  Rainfall amounts of over 3 inches fell in
two bands across east central and southeast Texas into western
Louisiana, with a maximum amount of 6 inches noted in Woodville
Texas.

Behind the departing low pressure system dry weather has returned to
the WGRFC area.  A weak ridge of high pressure is located over New
Mexico, and this ridge will move over Texas tonight and Friday.
However, the break from the rainfall pattern will be temporary.

Another storm system is forecast to develop west of the four corners
region before noon Friday.  This will begin to spread rain and high
elevation snows to extreme northern New Mexico and southern Colorado
Friday through Saturday.  Then this storm system is forecast to move
over New Mexico and bring a new round of showers and thunderstorms to
Texas starting Saturday.  Then as a long wave trough moves across
Texas rain and embedded thunderstorms will continue through Sunday.
Then this storm will close off and move east low pressure system is
forecast to move east over Louisiana Monday so the rainfall over the
WGRFC area will end.  While widespread mainstem river flooding is not
likely from the next storm system, headwater and flashier river
points over especially east Texas may see some flooding.

A weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to bring dry weather
conditions to the WGRFC area from mid-day Monday into Tuesday
morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over southwest
Colorado, as well as over extreme northwest New Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
or more are forecast across most of Colorado and extreme northern
New Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast
from northern and western New Mexico into Colorado, as well as over
the northern Texas panhandle.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast over northern, central and eastern Texas into
western Louisiana, as well as over extreme northeastern New Mexico
and southern Colorado. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00
inch, are forecast over southeast Texas into western Louisiana.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over most of the
WGRFC area except for parts of deep south Texas, far west Texas and
southern New Mexico.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast over the eastern two thirds of Texas into
Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of up to 2.00 inches,
are forecast over eastern Texas into Louisiana.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over most of the WGRFC area except
for parts of deep south Texas, far west Texas and most of New
Mexico.

Unseasonably warm, dry conditions earlier this March caused soil
moisture loss in many areas. Over the last week some timely rainfall
has occurred. This was taken into account in the latest U.S. Drought
Monitor for Texas which showed the area considered to be abnormally
dry at 45%.  Also, 9% of Texas was experiencing moderate drought
conditions, but less than 1% was in severe drought. In New Mexico the
Drought monitor shows 55% of the state experiencing abnormally dry
conditions, with around 7% in the moderate drought category.  The
rainfall of the past 48 hours has aided in bringing some new topsoil
moisture.  As a result, the rainfall forecast the next five days may
generate new or additional runoff over primarily eastern Texas into
western Louisiana.  But due to the lighter rainfall amounts forecast
elsewhere, no significant runoff is expected outside of east Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Moderate to isolated areas of heavy rainfall over the last couple
days has caused minor rises on river basins over east and southeast
Texas.  Action stage forecasts indicating higher than normal flow
conditions have been issued for isolated locations on the Neches,
San Bernard, and Guadalupe Rivers.  Higher than normal flow forecasts
have also been issued for parts of the middle Rio Grande due to
releases from Lake Amistad.

Another storm system is forecast to move into Texas this weekend
bringing moderate to heavy rainfall across the region.  WGRFC will
continue to monitor this situation.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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