Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 171716
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1115 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

                VALID DECEMBER 17 THROUGH DECEMBER 22

...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The water vapor satellite imagery shows an impressive plume of
tropical Pacific moisture streaming northeast over northern Mexico
and most of Texas today.   However, there should be light
precipitation in the WGRFC region due to upper level ridging. The
exceptions are heavier precipitation amounts being possible in deep
South Texas and northeastern Mexico as well as western and central
New Mexico.

An upper level trough along the Pacific coast is deepening as it
moves to the east.  This system is expected to generate several
upper level disturbances that will bring widespread precipitation
across New Mexico and Texas from today through Saturday morning.

For New Mexico, two quick moving troughs will cross today leaving
3-5 inches of snow at higher elevations by the time it leaves the
state Thursday night.  The most favorable areas for precipitation
are northwestern and central parts of the state.

The heaviest amounts of precipitation from this Pacific system are
expected to fall late Thursday night and Friday morning in the
southern two thirds of Texas.  The Hill Country and points to the
south including Corpus Christi and points east northeast to the
Louisiana border are expected to receive the heaviest amounts
Thursday into Friday. The following 24 hours from Friday into
Saturday, the eastern third of Texas will be the focus of the next
round of precipitation. This period will see rainfall totals in the
1-3 inch range.

The next potential for precipitation is Monday and Tuesday over
north central New Mexico and over the northern portions of Texas.

                     ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for north Texas with
the heaviest amounts north of the DFW metroplex.  Lesser widespread
amounts are forecast for the rest of Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to one inch are
forecast for the southern two thirds of Texas with the heaviest
amount covering an area from the Hill Country east northeast to the
Louisiana border.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 2.00 inches
are forecast for the eastern half of Texas with the heavier amounts
increasing from west to east.

For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of
the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%) and 4% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Soils are generally dry
enough such that forecast rainfall will generate mostly minor runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Current soil conditions remain damp over the eastern portion of Texas
with states drying significantly westward.  The  forecasted rainfall
over the next five days places precipitation over the saturated areas;
however, currently the amounts are not heavy enough to create any
flooding.  The most sensitive areas are the headwaters of the Sabine
and Neches as well as the central Trinity area.  If rainfall amounts
increase significantly above forecast only than will minor rises begin
to occur. Otherwise no flooding is expected for the forecast period.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


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