Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
249
AGNT40 KWNM 310714
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
314 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SHORT TERM...THE 00Z GLBL MDLS ARE NOW IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
OVR THE OFF WTRS INTO EARLY TUE. THE 06Z PRELIM OPC-WPC-NCEP SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS A STNRY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE DELMARVA COAST E
OVR NRN NT2 WTRS. LOW PRES WAS LOCATED FURTHER W ALONG THE FRONT
OVR OHIO. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMGRY AND LIGHTNING DENSITY IMGRY
INDICATES STRONG TSTMS INCREASING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...MOVG OFF TO THE E-NE...MAINLY FROM OFF ZONES
ANZ825 AND 828...TO ANZ925. THE LATEST SREF TSTM GUID SUGGESTS
THAT THESE TSTMS WILL CONT TO SPREAD E-NE INTO THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTN HRS. ADTL TSTMS ARE LKLY OVR MOST OF THE NT2 WTRS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCAL WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE...AND
VRY ROUGH SEAS CAN BE FOUND IN OR NR THE STRONGER TSTMS.
OTW...THE LOW WILL DRIFT E OVR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND LKLY
REACH THE SRN JERSEY SHORE THIS EVE OR TONITE...AND THEN SLIDE E
ALONG THE FRONT MON INTO MON NITE. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH NE
NT2 WTRS TUE EVE. WE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS
INTO EARLY TUE. FOR LATER TUE AND TUE NITE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS
DEEPER WITH THE LOW VS THE GFS AND NOW SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF
IN MOVG THE LOW E OVR THE NRN NT2 WTRS. FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE
WE WILL USE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECMWF FROM
YESTERDAY FOR LTR TUE AND TUE NITE.

LONG TERM...FOR WED THRU THU NITE WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 50-50
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECMWF FROM SAT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE PREV FCST. THE LOW WILL CONT TO
DEEPEN AS PUSH E OF THE OFF WTRS WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S FROM
NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVR MOST OF THE WTRS WED NITE
INTO THU NITE AS THE FRONT STALLS OVR THE SRN NT2 WTRS AND
WEAKENS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVG THE HIGH E OF
THE WTRS BY LTR THU...WITH THE 12Z CYCLE KEEPING THE HIGH A
LITTLE FURTHER W. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF
MDLS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST OPTION FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE.

SEAS...PER THE LATEST OBS AND ALTIMETER PASS OVR AND NR THE OFF
WTRS THE 00Z WNA WAVE WATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM MDLS APPEAR TO
HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAX SEA
HEIGHTS NR 5 FT OVR ERN NT2 WTRS. FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE WE
WILL FOLLOW THE ABV DESCRIBED WIND FCST AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
00Z WNA WW3 MDL GUID FOR TODAY INTO MON NITE...AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF WAM AND 12Z SAT
ECMWF WAM WV MDL GUID FOR TUE AND BEYOND. WE WILL ADJUST SEA HTS
DOWN BY 5 PERCENT OR SO FOR LTR TUE THRU THU NITE TO TAKE INTO
ACCT THE OCCASIONAL HIGH BIAS OF THE ECMWF WAM MDL OVR THE WTRS
OR SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS DONE IN THE PREV FEW FCSTS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.