Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
000
AGNT40 KWNM 210653
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
253 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...A HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE WTRS WILL PASS E OF THE AREA
EARLY TODAY. A LOW PRES CNTR WILL MOVE SE INTO THE WTRS S OF LONG
ISLAND LATE TODAY...REMAIN NRLY STNRY TONITE INTO THU...PASS NE
ACROSS THE SRN NT1 WTRS THU NITE AND FRI...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE
NE FRI NITE INTO SAT NITE. THE LOW IS EXPCTD TO DEEPEN AND
STRENGTHEN TUE NITE INTO THU. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SE
INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL NT2 WTRS FRI THRU SAT NITE.

MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT
THRU THE FCST PRD...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING AND STRENGTH
DIFFS WITH THE LOW AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THE FCST PRD. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE SHOWN VRY GUD CONSISTENCY...AND THE
00Z GFS LOOKS LIKE A REPRESENTATIVE MDL SOLN WITH STG SUPPORT
FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. SO WILL BE USING THE 00Z GFS 30M TO POPULATE
THE WIND GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD. HAVE MODERATE CONFDC FOR GALES
OVER THE GLF OF MAINE ON WED INTO THU...AND LOW TO MODERATE CONFDC
FOR GALES IN THE GULF STREAM OVER THE CNTRL NT2 WTRS ON THU AND
THU NITE. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FCST TREND ATTM.

SEAS...WILL POPULATE THE SEA HT GRIDS USING A 60/40 BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF WAM/MULTIGRID WW3 MDL...SINCE THE ECMWF WAM BUILDS UP THE
SEAS MORE QUICKLY THAN THE MULTIGRID WW3 MDL...ESPEC WITH THE STG
W TO NW FLOW EXPCTD ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WED NITE THRU THU NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS AND ETSS SURGE HTS
LOOK REASONABLE...ALTHO THE ETSS SURGE VALUES APPR TO BE SOMEWHAT
UNDERDONE GIVEN THE CURRENT FCST SCENARIO.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.