Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 051913
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
213 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...AN EARLIER 1507Z HI RESOLUTION ASCAT-B
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED MAX WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE IN ASCN
WITH THE DVLPG LOW PRES CENTER NOW NR 39N70W. SUSPECT THAT WINDS
IN THE IMMED VCNTY OF THIS LOW HV NOW INCRSD TO STORM FORCE. PER
THE NEW 12Z MDLS THO THIS SYSTEM SHULD BE FAR ENUF E THAT WINDS
SHULD BCM JUST BELOW STORM FORCE BY THE START OF THE TONITE FCST
PERIOD. THEN AS THE MDLS ALL FCST THE LOW TO ACCELERATE OFF TO THE
NE EXPECT MAX ASCD WINDS ACRS THE NRN WTRS TO DMNSH TO THE 15-20
KT RANGE BY FRI MORNING. THEN THE 12Z MDLS ALL FCST A HIGH PRES
RIDGE TO BLD OFSHR W-E ACRS THE NRN NT2 WTRS WITH LITE ASCD CONDS
DVLPG IN ITS VCNTY.

THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE S AS THE DIFFERENCES BTWN THE 12Z
MDLS HV NARROWED IN RGRDS TO THEIR FCST DVLPMT OF A SRN STREAM
SFC LOW EXPECTED TO APRCH FM THE S SAT NITE...TRACK SLOWLY NE ACRS
THE SRN AND OUTERMOST CNTRL NT2 WTRS SUN INTO SUN NITE WHL RPDLY
INTENSIFYING AS IT BCMS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH ITS STRONG ASCD
CLOSED UPR LOW...THEN CONT NE AND PASS E OF GEORGES BANK LATE MON.
IN RGRDS TO THE FCST TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW...THE 12Z NAM INITIALLY
LOOKS TOO FAST AND THE 12Z UKMET REMAINS ON THE ERN MOST EDGE OF
THE MDL CONSENSUS TRACK ENVELOPE THRUT. THEREFORE WULD FAVOR THE
12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF FCST TRACKS WHICH ARE CLUSTERED VERY CLOSE TO
EACH OTHER AND SPRTD BY THE 12Z GEFS MEAN. IN RGRDS TO THE FCST
GRADIENTS ASCD WITH THIS LOW...THE 12Z GFS BY FCSTG AN ASCD 75-95
KT LOW LEVEL 925 MB JET NOW FCSTS HURCN FORCE ASCD 30M BL WINDS TO
DVLP TO THE S OF ITS FCST LOW SUN NITE. THE 12Z GEM AND THE
USUALLY MR CONSERVATIVE 12Z ECMWF ARE FCSTG MAX ASCD BL WINDS IN
THE 50-60 KT RANGE WL NOW GO AHEAD AND FCST SM HURCN FORCE WINDS
ACRS THE OUTER SRN NT2 WTRS SUN NITE. ALSO THE 12Z GEFS MEAN
INDICATES THAT THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO SLOW IN FCSTG ITS SFC LOW TO
INTENSIFY SAT NITE INTO SUN. THEREFORE WL NOW GO AHEAD AND FCST SM
HURCN FORCE WINDS TO DVLP ACRS THE OUTER SRN NT2 WTRS SUN NITE. SO
AS SMWHT OF A COMPROMISE...PLAN ON POPULATING OUR FCST WIND GRIDS
WITH A 60/40 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS 30M AND 12Z ECMWF BL WINDS FOR
TONITE THRU MON FOR THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE LONG RANGE...IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG STORM...THE 12Z
MDLS ALL FCST A BROAD UPR L/W TROF TO SLOWLY MOV TWDS THE E COAST
MON NITE INTO WED NITE WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED S/W TROF ROTATING
THRU ITS BASE. AT THE SFC THO THE 12Z GLOBAL MDLS HV SM TIMING AND
FCST STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN RGRDS TO THE SFC LOWS EXPECTED TO
DVLP IN ASCN WITH THE S/W TROFS. VS ITS PREV 06Z RUN...THE 12Z GFS
RMNS CONSISTENT IN FCSTG A SIG DVLPG SFC LOW TO MOV OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST MON NITE AND THEN RACE NE ACRS THE WTRS TUE CAUSING A
STRONG WLY GRADIENT TO DVLP THRUT THE NT2 WTRS...WHICH WL THEN
PERSIST AND SLOWLY SPREAD NWD THRU WED NITE AS A SERIES OF WEAKER
SFC LOWS CROSS THE NRN WTRS. IN GNRL THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM SUPPORT
THIS GFS SOLUTION. HOPEFULLY THE 12Z UKMET SOLUTION OF ONE STRONG
CONSOLIDATED SFC LOW (A NOREASTER) IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION.
THEREFORE WL CONT TO COMPROMISE AND PLAN ON POPULATING WITH A
60/40 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS 30M AND 12Z ECMWF BL WINDS FOR MON NITE
INTO EARLY TUE NITE...WITH THE 12Z GFS BL WINDS TIME SHIFTED SIX
HOURS SLOWER IN DEFERENCE TO THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF. THEN WL
TRANSITION TO ALL 12Z GFS 30M BL WINDS LATE TUE NITE THRU WED
NITE.

.SEAS...THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III HAS INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY TOO LOW
AND THE 12Z ECMWF WAM IS SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH. WITH THIS IN MIND
PLAN ON POPULATING OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MDLS FOR TONITE INTO TUE NITE...WITH THE SAME 6 HR TIME SHIFT
FOR THE WAVEWATCH III AS NOTED ABOVE. THE WL TRANSITION TO ALL 12Z
WAVEWATCH III FCST SEAS LATE TUE NITE THRU WED NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...IN ASCN WITH THE DVLPG STORM
SUN INTO MON THE 12Z ESTOFS FCSTS SLIGHTLY MR SIG ASCD SURGES THAN
FCST BY THE 12Z ETSS. WULD FAVOR THE 12Z ESTOFS THEN.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE SUN.
     STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE SUN.
     STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE SUN.
     STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     STORM SUN.
     STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE SUN.
     HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE SAT NIGHT.
     STORM SUN.
     STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE SUN.
     HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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