Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 261925
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
325 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

STRONG SLY FLOW CURNTLY OVR THE OFFSHR WATERS AS HIGH PRES TO THE
W INTERACTS WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST. FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE SE ACROSS NRN OFFSHR WATERS
TONIGHT INTO FRI. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GALES IN MOST
OF THE OFFSHR WATERS IN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE 30M WINDS FROM THE GFS FOR THE SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AND NEAR THE GLF STRM...WHILE ONLY 10M WINDS
ELSEWHERE...AS WINDS NOT AS LIKELY TO MIX TO THE SFC DUE TO THE
COOLER SSTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FRONTAL WAVES DVLPG
ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING NE ACROSS THE NRN WATERS ATTM...BUT
HAVE A FEW SLIGHT DISCREPENCIES ON THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES.
MODELS COMING MORE INTO AGRMT OF A DVLPG LOW MOVING OFF CAROLINA
COAST FRI AND MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN NT2
WATERS LATE FRI INTO SAT WHILE INTENSIFYING. MODELS KEEPING ANY
STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM S OF THE WATERS...WITH
MAX WINDS TO 45 KT EXPECTED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TROF HANGING BACK ACROSS THE NRN WATERS
SAT INTO SUN...WITH PSBL LOW PRES DVLPG ALONG THE TROF SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS DVLPG W SIDE OF THE LOW. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
UKMET WEAKER WITH THE FEATURE AND ONLY SHOWING WINDS IN THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WEAKER ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION FOR
THIS FEATURE.

NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO APPROACH THE COAST MON. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THIS FEATURE...AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE FASTER OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT. PREFER
UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. ALSO WILL BOOST THE SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY 10 PERCENT NEAR THE GLF STRM...BUT WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW
GALE FORCE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE DAY 5 PERIOD AS BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF BRING A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NE COAST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...WHILE THE UKMET DOES NOT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED AS THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN
THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE
ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW.

FOR THE WIND GRIDS...WILL POPULATE 12Z GFS THRU 00Z SUN THEN 12Z
ECMWF THEREAFTER.

.SEAS...WNA STARTING TO LAG A LITTLE WITH THE SEAS WHERE THE
STRONG SLY FLOW IS SETTING UP WHEN COMPARED TO LATEST SFC OBS.
WILL POPULATE WAVE GRIDS WITH 12Z WNA THRU 06Z SUN...BUT WILL
BOOST SEAS BY 10 PERCENT IN THE SLY FLOW OVER THE GLF STRM.
THEREAFTER...WILL POPULATE WITH 12Z ECMWF WAVE...AS WILL BE
LEANING TOWARDS ECMWF SOLUTION FOR WINDS ATTM.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE TONIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO FRI.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO FRI.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE FRI NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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