Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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777
AGPN40 KWNM 291504
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
804 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

ATTM IM NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS OR
ASSOCIATED TEXT FCST. LATEST ASCAT PASS FROM 06Z INIDICATES
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE SEAS
ARE RUNNING 5-8 FT.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

00Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME SMALL MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAME. WILL POPULATE WIND GRIDS FROM 00Z GFS UNTIL 12Z THU...AND
THEN LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION THEREAFTER.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS AT THIS
TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 20 KT RANGE...BUT MODELS STILL SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING N ALONG
THE FRONT TUE INTO TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF
TIME. FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE PZ5 WATERS TUE AND
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN CALIFORNIA WATERS TUE NIGHT
INTO WED.

THE OTHER STORY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE INTERACTION
OF A COASTAL TROF ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA COAST AND
HIGH PRES TO THE W. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 25 TO
OCCASIONALLY 30 KT OFF THE CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HIGHER WINDS...INCLUDING
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL ZONES
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TROF EXPECTED TO EXTEND NWRD ALONG THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS TO
25 KT EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES OVER THE NRN OFFSHORE WATERS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FRI AND FRI NIGHT. MODELS DO TRY AND BRING
IN AN AREA OF LOW PRES FRI NIGHT...BUT BOTH THE GFS THE UKMET KEEP
THE RIDGE STRONG AND THE LOW W OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF
STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE IN LATEST RUN...AND SLOWS DOWN PROGRESS OF
THE LOW. HOWEVER...STILL BRINGS LOW TOWARDS THE NRN WATERS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED
TOWARDS ECMWF SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACAKGE...AS IT IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE STRONGER
RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND UKMET.


.SEAS...WWIII ENP WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS. WILL POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS FROM 00Z ENP UNTIL 00Z THU...THEN TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z
ECMWFWAVE THEREAFTER. ECMWFWAVE HAVING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SEAS
IN THE STRONGER WINDS OFF THE CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA COAST
THAN ENP.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SHAW/ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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