Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 171547
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
747 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

AT 12Z OLD LOW PRES ENTERING OREGON CSTL WTRS CONTS TO WKN WHILE
NEXT UPSTRM LOW 43N134W HAS SHEARED UPR SPRT AND IS WKNG WHILE
DROPPING SE AS AN UPR RDG BLDS BHND IT. LAST EVENING ASCAT-A
SHOWED GALES ON THE S SIDE AND AT 12Z IT IS LKLY MRGL GALE AT
MOST. WITH 00Z UKMET/ECMWF WEAKER WITH WNDS AS LOW MOVS INTO WTRS
AND DVLPG MORE STABLE BL CONDS REPOPULATED WNDS WITH 06Z GFS 10M
WNDS THRU 18Z THU FOR THIS SYSTEM AND THE INCRG SLY FLOW AHD OF
THE NEXT STG CDFNT ASCD WITH THE CENTRAL PAC HURCN FORCE LOW. THIS
LOOKS TO BE A STG FNT PRODUCING STM FORCE WNDS IN THE MORE
CHANNELED FLOW AHD OF THE FNT JUST N OF OFSHR WTRS LATER THU. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST APART FM DVLPG MDL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF SERIES OF STG LOWS MOVG NE INTO GLF OF AK MDL AGRMT
IS GOOD ON TIMING OF WRMFNT AND CDFNT MOVG INTO PZ5 AREA SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS CDFNT APPRS TO SLOW AS IT ENTERS WTRS OR IS
OVERTAKEN BY ANOTHER CDFNT ASCD WITH ANOTHER GLF OF AK LOW LATER
SUN AND SUN NIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY ONE CDFNT STALLING IN PZ5
AREA SUN BEFORE DSIPTG SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR WTRS.
MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGRMT WITH THIS SUN/SUN NIGHT SYNOPSIS. BYND 18Z
THU PLAN NO CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS.

SEAS...06Z ENP WW3 IS IN GOOD AGRMT WI 1-2 FT OF 12Z SEA STATE
ANAL AND 00Z ECMWF WAM IS SIMILAR. PLAN NO SGFNT CHANGES.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 06Z LOW PRES 1004MB OVR THE SRN OREG WTRS MAINTAINS A TIGHT
PRES GRDNT WITH ITS CLD FRNT ACRS THE SRN WTRS. THE MAX WINDS ARE
IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE OVR THE CNTRL WTRS. THE LAST R-SCAT PASS
AT 0507Z INDCTD GALE FORCE WINDS OVR THE CNTRL REGION.

ALL THE ENRGY THAT FUELED THE LOW OVR THE REGION IS NOW EXTNG THE
WTRS AND A WK UPPRLVL RIDGE INDCT RELAXNG THE GRDNT SLIGHTLY AND
ONLY FOR SHORT TIME AS MORE ENERGY WILL MVE INTO THE REGION AND
TIGHTEN THE GRDNT AGAIN. A MDL CHCE SHUD ONE THAT WILL KEEP A
TIGHT PRES GRDNT OVR THE REGION WITH A SHORT BREAK IN GALE FORCE
WINDS.

THE GLBL MDLS HAV INITLZED WELL AND ALL AGREE IN THE SHORT TERM.
AS SUCH WILL CONTNE FOLLOWING GFS AND RETURN WRNGS LIKE IN THE
PREVIOUS FCST. IN THE SHORT TERM THE LOW PRES OVR THE CNTRL WTRS
WIL SLWY MOVE E AS IT WKNS AND WILL DSIPT. ANOTHER LOW JUST OVR
THE ERN PAC WILL THEN APPRCH THE CNTRL WTRS. IN THE XTNDD PRD A
CLD FRNT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THE PRES GRDNT WILL STILL BE
TIGHT.

.SEAS...THE SEAS RANGE BTWN 12 AND 20 FT OVR THE CNTRL REGION WITH
PEAK SEAS AT 23 FT. SEAS RANGE BTWN 7 AND 12 FT ELSEWHERE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT/MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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