Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 192116
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
416 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2017

VALID 00Z MON FEB 20 2017 - 00Z WED FEB 22 2017

...THERE IS  A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRAS, SAWTOOTH, AND WIND RIVER
MTNS/ABSAROKA RANGE...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
FORM A NEW CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY.  THE STORM WILL PRODUCE SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE SOUTHWEST THAT
WILL COME TO AN END BY MONDAY MORNING.  IN ADDITION, MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL STREAM NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING THAT WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING.  BY
MONDAY EVENING, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WITHDRAW TO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY.  OVERNIGHT MONDAY, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  THE ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE
OVER THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.  AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH, A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHEN THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL START TO WANE BY
TUESDAY.  THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN ALONG
THE WEST COAST WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.  SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
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