145
FXUS01 KWBC 100732
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Valid 12Z Fri May 10 2024 - 12Z Sun May 12 2024

...Severe thunderstorms possible in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast
today...

...Above average temperatures will spread across the West and
north-central U.S. this weekend...


Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue today across
the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast as a slow-moving cold front
gradually pushes towards the East Coast. Severe thunderstorms will
be possible from the eastern Carolinas where the Storm Prediction
Center has highlighted an area with a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms (level 2/5) and in southern Georgia and north
Florida where there is another Slight Risk (level 2/5) area with
an embedded Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. The main thunderstorm
threat will be damaging winds, but hail and locally heavy
rainfall/isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible.
Precipitation will come to an end for most areas in these regions
tonight as the front moves into the Atlantic, but isolated showers
and storms will remain possible in south Florida through the
weekend as the frontal boundary slows/stalls.

By this afternoon, a frontal system will develop over the Upper
Midwest then push across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight.
This system will cause precipitation chances to return to the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England on Saturday with another
round of showers and thunderstorms expected. This system is
forecast to be weaker than the system that impacted the region on
Thursday and Friday, and severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Another front will drop south into the northern Plains and upper
Midwest on Sunday, but the frontal passage is expected to be
mostly dry with only some scattered showers and storms.

Meanwhile, an upper level low and a stationary surface front will
be positioned over the southwestern U.S., which will support low
elevation showers and thunderstorms over the central and southern
High Plains and the Four Corners region and high elevation wintry
precipitation through Saturday. Most lower elevation areas will
see light to moderate rainfall, though some heavier showers/storms
will be possible heading into Saturday evening for portions of
west Texas, with some isolated flash flooding possible. The upper
low will gradually push east Saturday night into Sunday, and
precipitation chances will expand into the central and southern
Plains as a low pressure system develops. This system will push
east early next week, and warm, moist inflow from the Gulf of
Mexico will likely support heavy rainfall in the warm sector that
could potentially lead to flash flooding in parts of the South.

The Pacific Northwest and much of California will remain dry
through this weekend as surface high pressure and upper level
ridging remain anchored over the region. This will result in above
average temperatures with highs in the 80s and even lower 90s
(15-25 degrees above average) in some areas. The upper level ridge
and above average temperatures will expand east across the
north-central U.S. over the weekend where highs will range from
the mid-70s to the lower 80s. Elsewhere, forecast precipitation
and cloud cover will result in temperatures below or near average.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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