Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 290757
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 31 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA WITH TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA...

A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY EVENING.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ALSO BY SUNDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE, MOISTURE STREAMING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.  AT THE
TIME OF ISSUENCE, THE FORECAST TRACK OF T. S. ERIKA TAKES THE
STORM JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.  THIS
TRACK WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA ON SUNDAY, TOO.  THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK, SO CHECK THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR THE MOST CURRENT TRACK.

IN ADDITION, A FRONT MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN BY
SUNDAY.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY MORNING.  AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES
BY SATURDAY EVENING THAT WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN
PRODUCING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

ELSEWHERE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENRAL ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ZIEGENFELDER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$




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