Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 040905
SWOD48
SPC AC 040904

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2016

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY (DAY 4) MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WILL RETURN THROUGH
THE TEXAS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT WITHIN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...IT STILL APPEARS MOISTURE RETURN WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

THURSDAY (DAY 5) A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE NEAR THE GULF
COAST AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUE THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES CONTRIBUTING TO
INLAND PROGRESSION OF A SMALL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY (DAYS 6-8) A LARGE AREA OF CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE NATION BY DAY 6 WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
OVER THE GULF. THIS SHOULD KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW THROUGH AT
LEAST DAY 8.

..DIAL.. 12/04/2016



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