Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 260839
SWOD48
SPC AC 260837

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS FRI/D4 AND
SAT/D5 E OF A PERSISTENT GREAT BASIN ANTICYCLONE...LIKELY FEATURING
PERIODS OF STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN LOWER PLAINS.
MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT WITH SUBSTANTIAL
PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS ABOUT TIMING/POSITION OF ANY ASSOCIATED SVR
THREAT. A MORE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FEATURING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AFFECTING THE NRN TIER. THIS COULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD FOR CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY...BUT PHASING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
LIMIT CONFIDENCE.

..ROGERS.. 07/26/2016



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