Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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813
ACUS03 KWNS 240738
SWODY3
SPC AC 240737

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday across the central High
Plains eastward into the middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valley
region. The greatest coverage of severe storms will be from eastern
Colorado into western and central Kansas.

...Synopsis...
Relatively low-amplitude mid-level flow will exist across much of
the U.S. along and east of the Rockies Friday, with an embedded
impulse likely influencing convective potential over the central
Plains. An expansive EML will exist from the central/southern Plains
eastward to the southeast states. A cold front will extend from the
upper Midwest into the southern/central High Plains, with
increasingly moist low-level upslope flow developing over the
central High Plains to the north of the front. Rich gulf moisture
will continue to return northward in advance of the cold front,
resulting in moderate/strong buoyancy from the southern
Plains/Arklatex into the mid Mississippi Valley.

...Central Plains...
Large-scale forcing for ascent with an upper-level impulse should
combine with diurnal heating to contribute to thunderstorm
development over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep-layer
shear of 40-50 kts combined with weak/moderate surface-based
buoyancy and very steep mid-level lapse rates will result in a
favorable environment for supercells with potentially very large
hail. Gradual upscale growth into an east/southeast-moving MCS is
anticipated overnight with a continued severe risk across
western/central Kansas.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms may develop late Friday in the vicinity of a frontal
boundary from eastern Missouri east across portions of the
Tennessee/Ohio Valley region. Instability and shear would be
sufficient for organized/severe storms possibly evolving into a
cluster/MCS overnight.  Latest guidance remains variable regarding
the timing and coverage of thunderstorm development within this
region, and will defer possible introduction of a Slight Risk to
later outlooks.

..Bunting.. 05/24/2017

$$



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