Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190400
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
306 UTC Mon Feb 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of California GALE WARNING: Strong to near gale force SW-W
winds, with seas to near 8 ft, will develop across the waters
from 29N to 30.5N on Mon evening ahead of a cold front that will
pass E across the far northern gulf waters. Gale force northerly
winds are forecast NW of the front on Mon evening and Mon night.
Seas will build to 10 ft in the longer fetch waters N of 30N.
The front will move E of the area on Tue, with marine conditions
quickly improving thereafter.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends SW from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica
at 10N85W to 06N90W to 05N102W where scatterometer winds
indicate a transition to an ITCZ, that continues W to 05N102W to
beyond 07N140W. No significant convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A gentle variable breeze continues around a weak N to S
orientated trough analyzed from 32.5N115W to 26N120W. A cold
front will sweep quickly E across the discussion area N of 28N
Mon eroding the trough. Strengthening high pressure in the wake
of the front will result in a strong NW breeze spreading SE
across the waters W of the Baja Norte on Mon into early Mon
night, accompanied by NW swell building seas to 8 to 14 ft. The
pressure gradient will relax on Tue with seas subsiding to less
than 8 ft on Wed night.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico
will support fresh to strong northerly surges through the Gulf
of Tehuantepec tonight, with these strong northerly winds
resuming on Thu evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through
and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through this week,
with seas building to 9 ft as downstream as 10N91W.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal N winds are
expected across the western Gulf of Panama tonight with these
conditions extending as far S as 05N80W. Mostly fresh
nocturnal drainage flow is forecast through Mon night.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of
09N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge covers the discussion waters N of the ITCZ and W
of 120W, with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixing swell. Scattered moderate
convection is from 15N to 18N between 123W and 127W. The
pressure gradient will tighten tonight, with fresh to strong
trades developing across the tropical waters W of 125W, while
fresh to strong N winds will spread S across the northern waters
in the wake of a cold front sweeping E across the Baja Peninsula.
Conditions will improve briefly across the sub- tropics on Thu,
the deteriorate again behind another cold front on Fri.

$$
Formosa



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