Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270242
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 27 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Frank is centered near 22.0N 118.7W, or about 565
miles...910 km WSW of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula, at 0300 UTC, moving slowly WNW, or 290 degrees at 10
kt. The maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure has
dropped to 979 mb. Currently, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed within 60 to 75 nm of the center with the
convection becoming symmetric. An eye has appeared
intermittently over the past several hours. Frank has likely
peaked in strength, and is forecast to begin a weakening trend
within the next 12 to 24 hours. Refer to the latest NHC forecast
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC
for more details.

Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near 18.8N 128.7W, or about
1245 miles...2005 km WSW of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula, at 0300 UTC, and is now begun drifting to
the north-northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are down to
45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
up to 1001 mb. The low level center is now exposed with deep
convection at a minimum and only flaring up within 45 nm of the
center in the NW semicircle in a few bursts. Georgette is
expected to weaken over cooler waters and overall unfavorable
environment and should become a remnant low within 24 hours.
Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Also refer to the latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave
forecasts associated with these systems.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave is analyzed N of 09N along 105W, and has been
moving W at about 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10-15N within 120 to 180 nm either side of the wave
axis. Expect this tropical wave to lose identity over the next
day or so.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends WSW from the pacific coast of Costa
Rica near 09N84W to 08N92W, then along 10N105W to 10N120W.
The ITCZ has become diffuse west of 120W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection was noted within 90-120 NM S of the monsoon
trough between 97W and 106W...and within 90 NM S of the trough
axis between 113W and 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

N of 15N E of 120W:

Tropical storm force winds associated with Hurricane Frank will
move west of 120W on on Wed, and associated seas of 8 ft or
greater will shift w of 120W by Wed night. See special features
above additional information on Frank.

A west to east orientated surface ridge will build from 21N120W
to 15N106W in the wake of tropical cyclone Frank. The weak
gradient northeast of the ridge will support light to gentle nw
winds through the upcoming weekend, with seas of 4-6 ft.

A NNW to SSE orientated trough will meander east over the Baja
California Peninsula, and the northern Gulf of California this
week, supporting light and variable winds across the Gulf of
California waters through Fri. A gentle to moderate southerly
flow is expected to begin on Fri night, and will persist through
Sat across the waters.

Moderate northerly flow expected late Thu night into the early
daylight hours on Fri, and then again late Fri night into Sat
morning with seas building to about 6 ft. Model guidance is
suggesting a slightly stronger drainage flow on Sat night into
Sun morning, with seas building to 8 ft.

S of 15N E of 120W:

See section on tropical wave.

Moderate easterly winds are expected across, and just downstream
of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours tonight and
on Wed night, then guidance is hinting at fresh easterly
drainage flow on Thu night as a surface low develops near
10N91W. The low should move westward through the upcoming
weekend, with increasing chance of tropical cyclone formation
later in the week.

Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell, in the formed of combined
seas of 6-8 ft, is forecast to propagate n across the equator
between 100-115W on Thu, and reach along 08N between 90-115W on
Sat before beginning to subside. Combined seas are forecast to
less than 8 ft on Sun.

W of 120W:

See special features above for information on tropical cyclones
Georgette and Frank that will pass westward through the northern
portion of this discussion area through this upcoming weekend.
Combined seas of 6-9 ft, primarily due to mixing swell, are
expected to surround the large seas near the cyclone, and cover
the waters elsewhere to the N of 12N through the upcoming
weekend.

$$
Cobb


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