Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050904
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN NEAR 23.0N 114.8W AT 0900 UTC SEP 5 MOVING
N OR 10 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT GUSTS 45
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS REMOVED TO N OF THE CENTER OF STORM FROM
24N TO 27N BETWEEN 113W AND 115W. KEVIN CONTINUES A WEAKENING
TREND AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER SHEAR...LOWER SST AND A DRIER MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. KEVIN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 10N107W IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 107W-112W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 11N100W TO 13N117W. SCATTERED
MODERATE STRONG WITHIN 300 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED
BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS WITH
SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT CURRENTLY N OF 15N W OF 137W. SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL START TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE
AREA N OF 25N W OF 138W.

GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE
OF JIMENA AND KEVIN. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL PREVAILS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS GENERALLY S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
DGS



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