Tropical Weather Discussion
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823
AXPZ20 KNHC 211601
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1251 UTC Tue Feb 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure is building
southward across eastern Mexico in the wake of a frontal system
moving slowly east across the Gulf of Mexico. Strong winds
generated west of the front are beginning to funnel through the
Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This gap wind event
will be brief as winds peak near minimal gale force tonight.
Winds will then diminish below gale force early Wednesday morning
and below advisory criteria on Wednesday evening.

Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

There is no ITCZ over the forecast waters north of the equator.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale
force gap wind event.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the forecast
waters west of Baja as indicated by the latest satellite-derived
wind data. Seas continue in the 6-8 ft range in the Baja offshore
waters and the waters adjacent to southwest Mexico, 1-3 ft over
the Gulf of California, and 3-5 ft over the remainder of the
forecast waters. A fresh set of NW swell generated by a cold
front west of the area is moving into the Baja California Norte
offshore waters. These swell will continue to propagate across
the waters off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula
and maintain seas in the 6-9 ft range over this area through
early Friday. Building high pressure west of Baja California is
already generating fresh to strong NW to N winds over the
southern Gulf of California and between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo
Corrientes. Fresh to strong NW winds are also anticipated along
the western Baja coast north of 25N Wednesday night through
Thursday night and over the Gulf of California N of 30N on
Thursday morning. Winds will subside as the high weakens in
response to low pressure approaching from the west. Seas are then
expected to subside below 8 ft in this area Friday night through
the weekend. Another cold front could bring yet another round of
NW swell to Baja waters on Monday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh winds this morning
will subside by this evening.

Gulf of Panama: Moderate winds will become light on Wednesday.

Otherwise, winds will be in the light to gentle range over the
forecast area.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 28N123W. A frontal
boundary is beginning to stall in the northern waters. The front
currently extends from 30N125W to 26N130W to 21N140W. Winds in
the vicinity of this front have diminished to 20 kt or less. NW
swell generated north of the front continue to propagate SE
across the forecast waters as they slowly diminish. Seas west of
the front continue to subside. The highest seas near 14 ft are
located near 30N133W. The front is beginning to weaken, and is
expected to dissipate later today. NW swells continue to dominate
the forecast waters, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much
of the forecast waters north of 10N and west of 110W. A small
area of 20 to 25 kt NE winds is expected to affect the waters
from 21N to 23N west of 137W Wednesday and Wednesday night in
response to weak surface troughing to the south. Areal coverage
of seas greater than 8 ft will start to decrease the second half
of the week. By Friday night and Saturday seas greater than 8 ft
will be confined to the far NW waters. Yet another set of NW
swell will move into the area in response to the arrival of
another cold front.

$$
cam



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