Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
583
AXPZ20 KNHC 110335
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Dec 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over
southern and eastern Mexico is maintaining a tight pressure
gradient over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. This gradient will
support sustained winds to around 40 kt tonight, then diminish
Sunday as high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico shifts
eastward. Max seas will be 14-15 ft tonight, becoming 10-12 ft
Sunday then subsiding below 8 ft Monday. North winds will pulse
to near 25 kt during overnight hours Monday and Tuesday.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N83W to 06N94W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N96W to 06N132W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection from 11N to 14N between 106W and 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered west of the area extends a ridge eastward
to Baja California along 27N. Other from the Tehuantepec high
wind event, light to gentle winds will prevail S of 17N through
Wednesday. Fresh to locally strong NW winds north of 28N along
the west coast of Baja California will continue through Sunday
night, then diminish Monday as the ridge weakens in response to
an area of low pressure approaching from the NW. Between 17N and
Mazatlan moderate to fresh northwest winds will prevail through
Tuesday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong offshore winds east of 92W
will continue to pulse mainly during the overnight hours this
weekend. Max seas during this event will be 8-9 ft. An easterly
wave over the western Caribbean will cross Central America early
Monday. GFS model guidance indicates low pressure development
along the wave axis as it moves westward away from Costa Rica on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Model consensus and climatology suggest
this system should remain a either a trough or possibly a low,
with winds 25 kt or less.

Light to gentle north to northeast winds and combined seas of 3
to 5 ft are occurring north of the monsoon trough, which is
expected to meander between 08N and 10N through Wednesday. Light
to moderate southwest winds are observed from 05N to 09N, with
combined seas hovering between 3 and 5 ft in southwest swell.
Moderate to fresh southerly flow is expected south of 05N through
Wednesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure ridge centered near 28N129W extends southeast to
15N104W. Gentle to moderate north-northwest flow is expected
northeast of the ridge axis this weekend and moderate to fresh
trades will prevail south of the ridge axis, north of the ITCZ.
Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds and combined seas of 8-9
ft will prevail from 07N to 15N W of 125W through Monday. Low
pressure approaching the far northwestern waters will weaken the
ridge, and help maintain a relatively light wind regime in this
area Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will push into northwest
waters Tue night, and extend from 30N135W to 27N140W Wednesday.

$$
Mundell



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.