Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240254
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Sep 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Pilar is located near 18.7N 105.3W
1003 MB AT 0300 UTC moving N or 360 DEG at 4 KT. Maximum
sustained winds 35 KT gusts 45 KT. Pilar is expected to
gradually strengthen to 50 kt during the next 24 hours as it
moves N along the Mexican coast of Jalisco, and then over or
just E of Las Tres Marias on Monday. Heavy rainfall causing
flash floods and mudslides will be possible along these coastal
states from Colima to Nayarit through Monday afternoon, and
could extent well inland. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough stretches across most of the basin from
northern Colombia near 09N74W TO 10N84W TO 17N103W...then
resumes from near 15N109W to low pres near 12.5N127W 1009 MB to
low pres near 12.5N139W 1009 MB to beyond 11N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is found from 06N TO 10N
between 79W AND 91W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
found from 10.5N TO 16N between 95W AND 110W, and from 09.5N TO
12.5N between 126W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front has dissipated across the central Gulf of
California and Baja California to offshore of Cabo San Lazaro
this afternoon. High pressure building north of 25N behind the
dissipated front will aid in freshening NW winds west of Baja
California Norte tonight through Sun. Elsewhere, expect
increasing winds and seas near and to the SW of Tropical Storm
Pilar spreading northwestward from near Cabo Corrientes to the
southern Gulf of California during the next few days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An active monsoon trough near the coast of Central America from
Guatemala to Panama will remain the focus for active convection
in coastal waters the next few days. Expect SW winds south of
the trough remain moderate to fresh this weekend. Farther south,
gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will persist south
of 05N through Monday. Long period SE swell from the Southern
Hemisphere will maintain seas west of Ecuador and south of the
Equator around 7 ft through Sunday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

NW swell generated by strong winds north of the area is
producing 7-9 ft seas N of 30N between 116W and 123W. Low pres
near 12.5N139W will move west of the discussion area Sunday.
High pres centered well N of the area and low pressure
associated with the monsoon trough will maintain moderate to
occasionally fresh trade winds W of 120W through Mon. Low pres
passing north of the area will weaken the high, allowing trades
to decrease later in the week.

$$
Stripling


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