Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 041017
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
317 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR LIGHT SNOW...
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND FREEZING FOG THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR CLINES CORNERS SOUTH TO
CORONA AND NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY. BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
ON TAP FOR THURSDAY MORNING WHERE MANY FOLKS WILL HOVER IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE
BACK ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY NICE WITH
SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHEARING UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA IS EJECTING EASTWARD
AND BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH A POLAR WAVE SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A POTENT COLD FRONT IS SEEPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A 1031MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE. A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT IS RESULTING IN
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
FARTHER SOUTH...THE BACK EDGE OF THE REMNANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME IS SLIDING OVER SOUTHEAST NM. SHORT-RANGE AND HI RES MODEL
GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR/RAP AND WRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE BEST
FORCING WILL OCCUR WITH OROGRAPHICS FROM TORRANCE COUNTY SOUTH TO
LINCOLN COUNTY...THEN EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATER TODAY.
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS DRIER/STABLE AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTHEAST
WHERE VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS NOTED. EXPANDED WINTER WX ADVISORIES
INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AREAS
IN NORTHEAST GET SHAFTED FROM ANY REAL IMPACTS...SO PERHAPS EARLY
CANCELLATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 1038MB TONIGHT WHILE A
POTENT DRY INTRUSION MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM.
THIS WILL FAVOR BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25F
BELOW NORMAL. A FEW RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A
SPOT OR TWO IN THE EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD THURSDAY WITH
VERY LITTLE MIXING AND BELOW NORMAL 700MB TEMPS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. VERY NICE WEATHER IS
ON TAP WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AIR QUALITY MAY
TREND DOWNWARD HOWEVER THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO VERY POOR MIXING.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

COMBO OF ONE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE ALOFT COMING
INTO AND THROUGH NM AND YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
DROP SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORN AND THEN
NUZZLE UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EAST SLOPES LATER TODAY.
NORTH TO NE WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE ALSO BE GUSTY
ACROSS GOOD PORTION OF WEST AND CENTRAL NM TODAY AS SOME OF THE
STRONGER WIND MOMENTUM ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE MIXES DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. NORTHWEST PLATEAU MAY SEE
20 FT WINDS APPROACH OR EVEN REACH THE LOW END OF CRITICAL WIND
SPEEDS THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT MINIMUM RH EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT LVL.

LIGHT TO MORE LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIP WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NE HIGHLANDS AS THIS DAY PROGRESSES.
MOST WILL BE IN FOR OF SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT. SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. WEST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN LITTLE IF ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT AMTS NOT OUT
OF QUESTION NEAR AND EAST OF A CHAMA TO SANTA FE LINE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL FALL TO WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ESPEC
ACROSS THE EAST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. FAR EAST CENTRAL AND NE
PLAINS WILL SEE MAX TEMPS SOME 30 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A
DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE MOST LOCALES. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH SAT THOUGH THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO
AVERAGE BY THEN. WE WILL SEE THEM SNEAK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE STATE BY MON.

VENT RATES WEDNESDAY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT WEST...FAIR TO GOOD
MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...BUT ACROSS EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS ONLY FAIR TO
POOR. POOR TO VERY LOCALLY FAIR RATES ARE EXPECTED THU INTO SAT.
MODEST IMPROVEMENT MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF FCST REGION
SUN AND MON.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
TERMINALS CURRENTLY VFR...BUT DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AT KLVS AND KTCC THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THEN ON TO KROW AND KSAF BY LATE DAY. LONG LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KLVS DUE TO SUSTAINED UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. KAEG...KABQ...KFMN AND KGUP ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH VERY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  39  15  38  18 /   5   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  35   3  38   7 /  20   5   5   5
CUBA............................  35   9  38  12 /  20   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  39  10  43  12 /  20   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  38  12  40  12 /  20   0   5   5
GRANTS..........................  39   9  40  10 /  20   0   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  39  15  43  18 /  20   5   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  52  22  58  24 /  10   5   5   5
CHAMA...........................  30  -4  33   2 /  40  10   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  34  13  34  18 /  20   5   5   5
PECOS...........................  33  10  36  17 /  50  20   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  29  -1  35   4 /  50  10   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  23 -10  29  -4 /  70  20   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  25 -13  34  -9 /  70  20   5   5
TAOS............................  32   0  37   5 /  50  10   5   5
MORA............................  28   4  39  11 /  70  20   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  38  13  40  17 /  20   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  35  15  37  21 /  30  10   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  38  13  39  18 /  20   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  20  43  24 /  20  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  45  20  45  23 /  10   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  18  44  19 /  20   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  21  43  23 /  10   5   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  17  44  18 /  10   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  44  21  43  23 /  10   5   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  50  21  45  23 /  10  10   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  37  14  35  20 /  30  20   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  41  16  42  21 /  20  20   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38   2  38  10 /  60  20   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  34   8  35  17 /  60  30   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  41  13  37  19 /  60  20   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  46  17  41  21 /  40  20   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  42  11  38  19 /  60  30   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  20   2  32  15 /  70  10   5   5
RATON...........................  24   3  33  12 /  60  10   5   5
SPRINGER........................  26   4  37  12 /  60  10   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  27   4  37  14 /  60  20   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  21   9  43  21 /  70  10   5   5
ROY.............................  24   7  34  16 /  60  10   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  29  14  40  22 /  60  10   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  33  14  43  20 /  60  20   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  28  13  43  22 /  60  10   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  33  14  37  21 /  60  30   5   5
PORTALES........................  34  16  38  21 /  60  30   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  35  15  37  21 /  60  20   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  47  20  37  21 /  60  30   5   5
PICACHO.........................  45  15  33  20 /  60  30   5   5
ELK.............................  44  14  32  20 /  60  30   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ522>524-536>539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>535.

&&

$$




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