Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 280552 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SOME CHANGES THIS TAF CYCLE WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA
AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM. MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKING IT A CHALLENGE AGAINST CONCEPTUAL MODELS. LEANING FORECAST
TOWARD STORMS AT KROW AS UPPER FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOIST INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRYING AND THINNING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE TRENDING
WINDS UPWARD INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WEST.
THIS WILL ONLY SHARPEN THE DRYLINE MORE AND INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 22Z. LOW CLOUDS
MAY REDEVELOP IN THE EAST BEHIND TSRA HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS OF
NEW MEXICO. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THE NEXT SEVERAL EVENINGS WHERE A
DRYLINE AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE PLAYERS. THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOUTHWEST PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL
SURGE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND RESULT IN A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER GENERALLY
GARDEN VARIETY...WITH THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES RANGE FROM -3 TO -6C. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE
OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...BUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR A FAIRLY RAPID
CONVECTIVE DOWNTREND THIS EVENING COINCIDING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT`S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ON APPROACH FROM OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA...WILL CONTINUE WEST AND PUSH OVER
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE AND A
RESURGENCE OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. THE
UPDATED SPC DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BACKED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS. LOCALES NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST WILL HAVE THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY.

THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO
PLACE AND INTERACT WITH A DRYLINE AND GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THESE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND RESULT IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO TRANSPORT LOW LAYER MOISTURE TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SERVE AS FUEL FOR LATE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS WITH IMPROVED COVERAGE CENTRAL AREAS.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TO RESUME SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE BY MONDAY. THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SPINNING-
UP A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF
THE BAJA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN WANDER IT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW A TROUGH
IMPACTING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN PROGRESSING
EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TROUGH TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE YET-TO-MATERIALIZE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. TIME WILL TELL. 11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND BRING UP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO
PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG/NEAR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GULF MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTER PLAINS AS THE
DRYLINE REMAINS WEST OF THE TX LINE FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO GET A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH REGARD TO A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LATE-DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN A
DELAYED START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ON BOARD WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AROUND...HOWEVER...FOR A ROUND OF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A CLASSIC SET
UP FOR STORMS COMING OFF THE SANGRES AND PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OUT ONTO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF
NM LATE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DECREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
HAINES VALUES ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER
ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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