Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 262346 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
546 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

Upper low to move from nw NM to se CO by 27/12Z. High based
showers and virga over northern 2/3 of NM with variable gusty
winds to 35 or 40kt though conditions should remain generally
vfr. Mt top and sfc winds to shift to west and northwest.


Isolated showers and storms moving over northern NM will expand
into the Sangre de Cristo Mountains overnight. A few inches of
snow are likely above 10,000 feet. A few more showers and storms
are possible Friday before the storm system exits into the plains
states. High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal
Friday. Temperatures will warm up through Memorial Day weekend
with lots of 70`s and 80`s. A dryline over eastern New Mexico
Sunday will develop a few strong to possibly severe storms along
the TX line. The chance for showers and storms will return to
much of NM next week. Temperatures will remain near to slightly
below normal.


A potent dry slot is ejecting eastward across NM within the base of
an unseasonably deep upper low over the Four Corners. Dewpoints have
fallen into the single digits over much of NM. Windy conditions and
high fire danger has spread across much of the east. Enough mid
level moisture and instability over the far northwest high terrain
has allowed for a few showers & storms over the area. The Chama
webcam showed hail/snow pellets around 215pm. This is an indicator
of how cold this system is for late May. 700mb temps near +4C are
btwn 2 and 3 stdev below climo. The focus for any precip will be
across the far north tonight as surface convergence improves with
a back door front arriving over northern NM. A few inches of snow
are likely above 10kft. Temps will remain below normal through
Friday with more isolated showers & storms during the afternoon.

Saturday through Memorial Day will feature temps warming back to
near seasonal normals. Very dry conditions will remain over central
and western areas as another dry intrusion surges east across the
desert southwest. A dryline is still advertised to slosh around the
far eastern plains. The greatest potential for strong to perhaps
severe storms will be late Sunday east of the lower Pecos. Model
lifted indices btwn -5 and -10C with CAPE values near 1500 J/kg
focus over Chaves, Curry, and Roosevelt counties.

The pattern will become more unsettled from late Tuesday thru at
least Thursday as a weak upper wave shifts slowly east across the
state. Meanwhile, low level moisture will deepen over the east. A
stronger moisture push Wednesday aided by convective outflows has
the potential to push storm chances all the way west to the Divide
through Friday. An upper high building overhead later in the week
will improve terrain circulations and moisture recycling to create
afternoon rounds of slow-moving storms around the high terrain.



Critical fire weather conditions have developed across a good
portion of the eastern plains and that should linger into roughly
mid evening, thus the red flag warning there will be maintained
through the current 9 pm MDT expiration time. Mid and upper level
low to move from ne AZ into far north NM tonight and into se CO
by Fri morn, bringing cooler temps and a few showers and
thunderstorms across north central and northwest NM into tonight.
Majority of showers or storms across the north central and
nw will be dry as surface dewpoint temperatures remain near or
below 20 outside of any significant showers. As the upper low s
lowly exits se CO Fri the west to nw flow aloft will keep just
enough moisture for a few showers and storms, more dry than wet,
to again develop with daytime heating from north central NM east
to near the TX line. With possible exception of locales within a
roughly 50 to 75 mile radius of Clines Corners, near sfc winds
Fri should be significantly lighter than is the case this aftn.

On Saturday, the flow aloft begins to back to the sw ahead of
the next upper level trough. Gulf of Mexico moisture backs
northwestward into east NM Saturday night, increasing chances for a
few to scattered wetter showers and storms Sunday and Monday
afternoon and eve. Still some model disagreement in that GFS still
attempts to keep the east noticeably drier than the ECMWF model,
but our gridded fcst stays closer to the latter model depiction.
Tuesday and much of Wednesday, while both models introduce some
very spotty showers and storms to areas west of the central mtn
chain, though still perhaps more dry than wet activity there.

As is typical during late May, ventilation rates remain in the very
good to excellent range areawide today through Tuesday, though
slightly lower some spots Tuesday. Rates should decrease somewhat
Wednesday but remain good or better across the vast majority of the
fcst area.



Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ104-108.


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