Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 230554 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1154 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A high impact period is on the horizon for the next 24hrs as deep
layer moisture increasing over NM interacts with strong southwest
flow aloft ahead of an approaching upper trough. The primary focus
will be over eastern NM where satellite and radar trends are already
showing a rapid increase in SHRA/TSRA activity btwn KEPZ and KCAO.
Lighter SHRA are noted across northwest NM and this area will also
expand overnight. Persistent banded precip will make for potential
several hour vsby/cig obscurations around KLVS and KSRR aft 13Z,
then gradually eastward as the day progresses. The area from KROW to
KTCC is expected to experience significant impacts from +RA and
possible IFR/LIFR during the period from 21Z to 03Z. Activity may
persist in this area even longer than currently shown but will await
trends as the day progresses.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern as deep troughs with closed lows develop to
our northwest and west through next week. The first closed low is
currently along the OR and ID border and will drop south tonight,
shift east Saturday then lift northeast after that. The second closed
low will develop near the CA and AZ border next Wednesday and move
slowly northeast late next week. A pacific cold front will cross NM
Sunday into Sunday night with a polar cold front plowing south late
Sunday night into Monday. With a generally southerly flow through the
forecast period plenty of moisture will be available for widespread
showers and thunderstorms and potentially heavy rain most of the days
in the east. The most active days in the west will be Saturday and
from next Tuesday on. Temperatures will drop below normal Saturday
and remain below normal through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers are finally starting to develop in the northwest and
near the TX border. They will blossom and intensify through the night
with strong and possible a few severe storms forming near the TX
border. Locally heavy rain will be possible across the east tonight.

Closed low will be over NV Saturday and southern UT Saturday night,
drawing up copious amounts of moisture, resulting in widespread rain,
some of it heavy. Will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch until we see
how things develop during the night. But much of the east could be
under the gun and will need to be monitored.

The closed low will lift northeast Sunday and Sunday night as drier
air sweeps in from the west, behind a pacific cold front. Rain should
be confined to the Sangres and east, and the bulk of that likely only
on the eastern plains. A little wet snow could fall on Wheeler Peak
Sunday night.

A polar cold front will plunge south late Sunday night and Monday
with a batch of new low level moisture for the east. East canyon
winds will be likely Monday night and could go all the way to the AZ
border Tuesday. Meanwhile another deep trough and closed low will
develop to our west, with the closed low along the CA/AZ border
forming Tuesday night. Another round of widespread precipitation
is expected from late Tuesday or Tuesday night through at least
Thursday, as the closed low will be slow to lift northeast. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper low centered over the northern Great Basin will very slowly
move to the southeast tonight through Saturday evening. Southwest to
south winds ahead of this system will gust to between 25 and 35 KTS
across the entire region through early evening. Deeper layer
moisture in place across eastern NM in conjunction with an unstable
air mass will produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across
eastern NM tonight through Sunday morning and scattered showers and
thunderstorms across central NM from Saturday morning through Sunday
morning. The greatest chance of heavy rainfall will be in the
eastern NM zones. Recoveries Saturday morning are expected to be
excellent for the eastern third of NM and fair to good for the
western two-thirds of NM. Minimum relative humidities on Saturday
will be range from near 20 percent in the west to 60 to 70 percent
in the far eastern plains of NM. Maximum ventilation rates Saturday
will be poor in portions of the eastern plains of NM and excellent
west of the RGV. Ventilation rates on Sunday will be good to very
good.

A drying trend will begin on Sunday across the west, and on Monday
the drier air will push farther east.  A few showers and
thunderstorms are likely across far eastern NM Monday afternoon.
Ventilation rates on Monday will be generally poor in northeast and
northwest NM with good to very good values elsewhere. A backdoor
cold front will enter northeast NM early Monday and push south and
west Monday afternoon. Gap winds can be expected in thee RGV late
Monday night through Tuesday morning. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
could occur with theses gap winds.

Minimum relative humidities on Tuesday will remain higher than
normal with percentages in the upper teens and lower 20`s in the far
west and in the mid 50`s and lower 60`s east. Moisture will continue
to advect westward behind the front on Tuesday, continuing, if not
increasing chances for thunderstorms across much of the area. If the
GFS is correct, shower and thunderstorm coverage may increase
Wednesday, as an upper-level trough moves eastward across AZ. The
ECMWF shows much less precipitation coverage at this time. Through
the end of the work week, the upper level storm system looks to move
little, thus keeping chances of precip in the forecast.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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