Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 300312 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
912 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LAST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ARE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND BE MOSTLY DIMINISHED AND/OR MOVED INTO TEXAS BY
06-07Z. A FEW STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER HAS LARGELY COME TO A CLOSE. THEREFORE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. UPDATED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT MIN TEMPS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AREAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY TODAY.
HAVE DROPPED MIN TEMPS IN THE CHUSKAS WHERE THE DEWPOINT IS 27
AND AROUND GALLUP AS WELL WHERE THE DEWPOINT IS EXPECTED TO DROP A
BIT MORE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SOME MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND
SKY COVER. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...538 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL IMPACT EASTERN NM THROUGH
03Z. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...60
MPH WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN THREATS FOR
THESE AREAS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS AND MTN TOP OBSCURATION.
ONLY TEMPO TSRA SITE NOW WILL BE KTCC UNTIL 02Z AND TEMPO SHRA
FROM 01Z TO 03Z KROW. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THAT STATE BY 06Z LEADING
TO CLEARING SKIES. ONLY POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AROUND KROW AND KCVN BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO CARRY IN THE KROW TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINISHES CROSSING THE AREA.
SOME CELLS MAY TURN SEVERE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 11 DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAYS READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES...DRY WEATHER AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH 500 MB WINDS IN THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE...EVEN ORDINARY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE CRITERIA WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILE MAY CAUSE STORMS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH BOWING
ECHOES. THE BIG CONCERN SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL TOO.

MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH FOR MID WEEK. THE GFS IS DRAGGING ITS
HEALS...BUT THE CANADIAN...ECMWF AND NAM MODELS ARE AGREEING ON
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
SYSTEM MAY SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE
A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CO BORDER BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF NEW MEXICO...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND. 44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING...LARGE HAIL...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
OCCUR IN STRONGER STORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS
BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT DECREASING STORM CHANCES THERE THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
BUT TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STORMS EXIT THE STATE.  LOOK FOR
GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL.
FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL FOLLOW IN THE AFTERNOON
AREA WIDE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION
RATES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PASS SOUTHWARD
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE POOR
VENTILATION FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER...WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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