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000
FXUS61 KALY 160527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
127 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly clear skies and cool temperatures are expected overnight.
High pressure builds in tomorrow with sunshine and slightly
above normal temperatures. The fair weather continues into
Wednesday with clouds increasing from the south and west late,
as showers return Wednesday night through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...As of 125 AM EDT, earlier isolated sprinkles across
far northern Hamilton County have dissipated, with some patchy
clouds remaining across portions of the southern Adirondacks.

Where skies remained clear across the southern Adirondacks,
temps have already dropped into the upper 20s/lower 30s. With
several more hours of excellent radiational cooling expected,
have lowered min temps across portions of this region, with some
lower/mid 20s possible prior to daybreak. Elsewhere, expect 30s
in many areas for min temps, with some lower 30s expected across
portions of the upper Hudson Valley.

Some patchy fog/freezing fog will be possible across the upper
Hudson Valley and southern Adirondacks by daybreak.

PREVIOUS...Other than a few isolated showers in the southern
Adirondacks that will exit through the rest of this evening,
most areas seeing just a few clouds and those clouds are
expected to decrease in coverage through the night. Winds will
diminish and temperatures should fall to forecasted levels by
daybreak. Just minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cover
through the night.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
The west to northwest winds of 10-20 mph will decrease early
tonight, as the sfc pressure gradient decreases and the deeper
mixing ceases. The well mixed boundary layer should decrease the
mist/fog threat and we have not added any to forecast at this
time. It will become partly cloudy to mostly clear with high
pressure building in from the Great Lakes Region and southern
Ontario. The decoupling winds and clearing skies should allow
for some radiational cooling with lows in mid 30s to lower 40s
in the valleys and upper 20s to lower/mid 30s over the hills and
mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tomorrow...A nice mid April spring day is expected with the sfc
anticyclone ridging in from the Great Lakes Region and southeast
Ontario. The subsidence from the high will yield partly to
mostly sunny skies with a few-sct fair weather cumulus. Enough
mixing will allow for northwest winds of 10-15 mph with some
gusts around 25 mph or so near the Capital Region and the
western New England higher terrain with northwest flow
persisting aloft. We went close the ECM MOS max temps with highs
on Tuesday with lower to mid 60s in the valleys and across NW
CT with upper 40s to upper 50s over the higher terrain. These
temps will be about 5 degrees above normal.

The sfc anticyclone moves over the forecast area Tue night and
then shifts southeast of Long Island by daybreak with light to
calm winds and mainly clear skies. Near ideal radiational
cooling is expected with lows mainly in the mid and upper 30s in
the lower elevations and upper 20s to mid 30s over the higher
terrain. Some colder readings in the lower 30s are possible near
KGFL and Lake George.

For the mid week and Wednesday, expect mainly fair weather to
continue with increasing mid and high clouds from the south and
west ahead of warm front over the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic
Region. The 12Z GFS/ECMWF is a little quicker than the NAM and
some of the ensembles for the leading edge for the warm
advection light rain/showers. We did keep a slight or low chance
of showers late in the day south and west of the Capital Region,
but overall expect mainly dry conditions with the mid/upper
level ridge axis trying to hang on. Highs should still run
slightly above seasonal normals with 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday night into Thursday...unsettled weather returns to
the region with thickening and lowering clouds Wed night. The
isentropic lift look weak and the best synoptic forcing or QG
lift being southwest of Albany Wed night and thats were we kept
the highest PoPs. The showers will hard pressed to reach
locations north and east of Albany due to dry air in place and
low-level easterlies causing downsloping/shadowing off the
western New England higher terrain. Lows will be in the mid 30s
over the southern Greens/southern Dacks to lower and mid 40s
over the rest of the region. The threat for scattered to
numerous showers continues on Thursday with the warm front still
south and west of the region. We did not added thunder yet but
some elevated instability is present south and west of Albany. A
rumble or two of thunder is possible. Due to clouds and rain
cooled air, expect highs to only be in the upper 40s to upper
50s with the warmest readings over the Lake George Region which
will be near to slightly below seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Northern stream upper trough axis will track through our region
between Friday and Saturday night. Lowering heights and downstream
upper confluence will support a low level cold front tracking
through our region Saturday. So, increasing clouds and showers
through the day Friday, then the best coverage of showers Friday
night and Saturday, exiting Saturday evening. Highs Friday in the
mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs Saturday in the 50s to near 60 with some
upper 40s southern Adirondacks.

Mean upper troughing and cool air aloft will support a daytime mix
of clouds and sun Sunday and Monday with just some isolated showers
each afternoon. Highs Sunday in the 50s with mid to upper 40s
southern Adirondacks. Highs Monday in the 50s with around 60 Hudson
Valley and NW CT, and around 50 southern Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06z Wednesday...FLying conditions are VFR at all terminals,
with mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through at least the
next 24 hours. There may be some patchy fog for a couple hours late
tonight/around sunrise, and have included a tempo group for this.
Moderate confidence on fog formation, but if fog does indeed form
then brief IFR conditions would be possible there. No fog is
expected at the other TAF sites tonight. Any early morning fog
quickly burns off by 12z at GFL. Then, all terminals see partly to
mostly clear skies with just a few passing mid-level clouds during
the day today and through the first half of tonight.

Winds will be light and variable through around sunrise, then
increase to around 4-7 kt from the west through mid-morning. From
mid to late morning through around sunset, westerly winds at around
10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt are expected. Gusts diminish after
sunset with sustained winds of 5-10 kt from the northwest, switching
to 5 kt or less from the north/northeast after around 03z.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Main