Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 272252
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
652 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system is bringing clouds and showers to the area
through Thursday morning, especially east of I-81. Dry and
partly sunny conditions are expected for Friday, but it will be
breezy and cool. The upcoming weekend features seasonable
temperatures with a chance for scattered rain showers late
Saturday and Saturday night when some snow can even mix in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
640 PM Update...

Adjusted PoPs into the overnight hours based on the latest radar
trends and high res guidance. Showers over the western portion
of the CWA are definitely not as widespread as earlier guidance
suggested, with only a few showers over the SW Finger Lakes
area. Over the eastern portion of the CWA, showers continue to
slowly move eastward, with steady rain remaining in Pike,
Sullivan and far eastern Delaware counties. Another shortwave is
expected to move into the area later tonight, and combined with
the approaching cold front from the west, rain showers should
spread back into the Catskills, down to the Wyoming Valley.

Temperatures have also remained warmer than originally forecast,
mostly because we didn`t get the rain or cloud cover modeling
suggested. Adjusted temps up through daylight hours based on the
latest high res guidance and surface ob trends.

The rest of the forecast remains on track.


335 PM Update

Rain showers continue to stream from south to north mainly east
of I-81, and this is expected to continue into this evening
before becoming more isolated in nature. Meanwhile, a cold front
will be crossing our area tonight and is expected to stall out
near or just east of our CWA by early tomorrow morning. As this
front pushes eastward, there can be some spotty showers around
the Finger Lakes region up through the Syracuse metro and into
the Mohawk Valley this evening. After midnight, these showers
will have a hard time progressing east and slight chance PoPs
(<25%) are in place for the rest of CNY and even most of NE PA.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s to the low 40s.

Much of our area is expected to be dry tomorrow with a fair
amount of clouds, however the eastern Catskills on south and
west into Pike, Wayne, Lackawanna and eastern Luzerne Counties
are expected to see occasional showers with the stalled frontal
boundary nearby. An area of low pressure developing over the
Carolinas and moving northeast along the front just of the mid-
Atlantic coast can enhance the rainfall over extreme eastern
portions of our area in the afternoon, but the trend has been
for this steadier rain to pass by just to the east, so this will
be monitored. Highs tomorrow are expected to range from the mid
40s to the lower 50s.

High pressure building in tomorrow night will dry things out
and clouds will gradually give way to some clearing. It will be
a chillier night with lows in the upper 20s and low 30s, but
with a bit of a breeze in place, wind chills can be in the upper
teens and low 20s stepping out the door early Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
135 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are centered around the gusty
northwest winds Friday and Saturday with generally dry
conditions until a weak warm front lifts a batch of rain into
the area late Sat afternoon.

An area of low pressure at the surface 150 miles off the coast
of NJ, along with an upper short wave, will be lifting
north/newd Friday morning. As this system continues to move to
the north off the New England coast later in the day Friday, the
system is expected deepen which will act to tighten the sfc
pres gradient over inland areas of the Northeast as high
pressure builds into the Great Lakes. This tightening pres
gradient is expected to induce sustained northwest winds around
20 mph and occasional gusts 30 to 35 mph through the day Friday,
Fri night and into Saturday.

The air mass is expected to be quite dry with PWs around 0.25
inch. 850mb temperatures advecting in from the northwest will
range from -7 to -9 deg C. Conditions will not be favorable for
lake effect snow with very minimal moisture and temperatures too
warm aloft.

Heights aloft will gradually rise Friday night into Saturday,
especially across the Great Lakes. A fast moving clipper-type
system will track from the southern Great Lakes into the
northern Mid Atlantic region on the heels of the ridge later on
Saturday. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the
north-south placement/track of this wave. The latest ECMWF
keeps it a closed sfc low with a much more northern track, while
most of the other deterministic guidance keeps it an open wave
with a southerly track. At this point, cannot rule out a low
chance (20-30%) of some light rain moving in late in the day
Saturday.

Temperatures on Friday will be on the cooler side, especially
with that cold northwest flow bringing in the Canadian air mass.
Highs will only reach into the 40s. Friday night lows
temperatures will drop back into the 20s to near 30. Could feel
like temperatures in the teens with the inclusion of the wind.
Some ridging moving on Saturday will relax the temperatures and
allow for some 50s, especially south of the Finger Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
135 PM update...

The short wave will continue passing through Sat night with
rain chances around 30 to 40% and possibly some snow mixing (20
to 30% chance) in over elevations above 1400 feet in central NY.
Temperatures in the 30s Saturday night will warm into the 40s
and 50s during the day as the system exits to the east. Weak
high pressure is expected to build into and out of the area
Sunday and early Sun night before the next system over the
central US starts to move in on Monday. This system on Monday,
and likely lasting into Tuesday, is not being resolved with much
consensus among the deterministic model guidance. There is also
quite a bit of spread in the various ensemble suites, so will
continue with the standard model/ensemble blend this far out.
Temperatures look relatively seasonal with highs in the 40s and
50s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM Update...

VFR conditions are in place at most terminals this afternoon
with mid-to-high clouds streaming overhead. Rain showers have
increased in coverage over NE PA and into the Catskills
resulting in varying conditions at KAVP, with the rain heavy
enough at times to lead to IFR visibilities. The NY terminals
are expected to remain VFR through early this evening until
ceilings begin to lower as a cold front advances toward the area
from the west. KITH, KELM and KBGM can all drop to Fuel Alt
conditions later this evening and into the overnight hours.
Farther north, KRME and KSYR are expected to drop to MVFR, with
confidence higher at SYR of lower ceilings with the potential
for spotty showers from the approaching front. Ceilings are
expected to improve tomorrow morning back to VFR.

For KAVP, scattered showers will continue into this evening with
varying conditions from VFR to IFR depending on the intensity of
the rain. Showers are expected to slowly push east later in the
evening, but restrictions remain in place overnight with low end
fuel alt ceilings. Some guidance does suggest that IFR or even
below alt. min ceilings can develop overnight so this is covered
via TEMPO for now. Confidence on the low ceilings is on the low
side as guidance seemed to be too pessimistic for this
afternoon. Like the NY terminals, ceilings are expected to
improve before the end of the TAF.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR to VFR for most terminals. Restrictions
possible in mist/low clouds for AVP early. (Low to moderate
confidence)

Thursday night into Friday...VFR (High confidence)

Saturday...Mainly VFR (Moderate confidence)

Saturday night through Sunday...A weak clipper system could
bring rain showers and associated restrictions.

Monday...mainly VFR; small chance of showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK/JTC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DK/MJM


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