Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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332 FXUS61 KBUF 091938 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 338 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A wavy...nearly stationary frontal boundary to our south will lead to thickening clouds over our region with some rain into Friday night. The greatest chance for wet weather will be across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region where a half to one inch of rain could fall. Cool and unsettled weather will generally remain in place for much of the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... It will become unsettled tonight...as sfc waves moving along a pseudo-stationary frontal boundary stretching from the Ohio valley to the Mid Atlantic region will help moisture to surge northwards across much of the area. Relatively deep lift to the north of the passing waves will encourage showers and areas of steadier rain to impact the region...MAINLY over the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Areas that could make it through the night rainfree will be across the IAG Frontier and sites north of the Tug. The area of steadier...more widespread rain will expand across the region during the day Friday when additional shortwave energy will support deeper organization to the last in the series of sfc waves along the aforementioned front. Have thus further raised pops across all of the forecast area...now ranging from chc across IAG county to likely MOST elsewhere and to near 100 across parts of the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes region. A weak shortwave ridge will scoot across the forecast area Friday night...accompanied by significant mid level drying. This will allow the showers and areas of steadier rain to taper off from west to east...although some spotty showers should persist east of Lake Ontario. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Mid-level troughing will dive across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast and remain in place through much of the weekend. Initially, this will support an area of weak low pressure to track southwest across the region. Both synoptic moisture along with the upper level trough providing lift will support low chances for a few showers Saturday morning, especially across WNY. Then with diurnal heating and the potential of some clearing will support a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Coverage in showers will then decrease from west to east Saturday night. An amplified upper level ridge across the northern Great Lakes will act to gradually push the existing trough and its axis east across the area Sunday. Overall this will support more showers across the area Sunday. Additionally Sunday afternoon, a few thunderstorms will be possible across the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region. Temperatures this weekend will be a few degrees below average with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A damp start to the period as potential showers cover most of the area from the GOMEX all the way through the Great Lakes and to Hudson Bay. Showers will be along an elongated frontal boundary with waves of low pressure and troughs in place along the boundary. Currently the best potential for showers looks like the Monday through Tuesday time period as the above mentioned features pass over/near the region. Guidance is still very much uncertain from Tuesday night onward as some models keep a stalled frontal boundary over the area, while others are much more progressive with pushing the front and trough through. Went with the middle ground and left some shower potential in for Wednesday & Wednesday night, mainly over the southern half of the forecast area. Thursday looks like the driest day as of right now, with a potential ridge axis centering over the region ahead of an incoming trough that will have the potential to bring more showers for the end of the week. Temperatures for the period will be within a few degrees of normal, with Thursday being the warmest day as a potential ridge moves into the region. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will be in place through most of tonight...although some light rain will advance across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region with cigs lowering to MVFR levels towards daybreak. On Friday...areas of rain and MVFR cigs will expand across all of western New York with pockets of IFR conditions across the higher terrain of the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes region. Mainly VFR conditions will persist east of lake Ontario. Outlook... Friday night...MVFR conditons with rain ending from west to east. Saturday...VFr cigs deteriorating to MVFR with increasing likelihood for showers. Sunday...VFR to MVFR cigs in scattered showers. Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers. && .MARINE... A northeasterly flow will strengthen some today and tonight. This will result in choppy conditions along the south shores of both Lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...SW AVIATION...RSH MARINE...JM/TMA