456
FXUS61 KBUF 100247
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1047 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A wavy, and nearly stationary frontal boundary to our south will
lead to thickening clouds over our region with some rain tonight
into Friday night. The most persistent chances for wet weather will
be across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region, where a half to
one inch of rain could fall through the end of the work week. Cool
and unsettled weather will generally remain in place for much of the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
It will become increasingly unsettled as we progress through the
second half of tonight with surface waves moving along a pseudo-
stationary frontal boundary stretching from the Ohio Valley to the
Mid Atlantic region helping advect deeper moisture northwards across
much of the area. Relatively deep lift to the north of the passing
waves will encourage showers and areas of steadier rain to impact
the region, MAINLY over the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Areas
that could make it through the night rainfree will be across the
Niagara Frontier and the North Country. Lows tonight will be mainly
in mid to upper 40s.

The area of steadier, more widespread rain will expand across the
region during the day Friday when additional shortwave energy will
support deeper organization to the last in the series of surface
waves along the aforementioned front. PoPs have thus further been
raised across all of the forecast area, now ranging from Chc across
Niagara County and toward the Saint Lawrence Valley, to Lkly MOST
elsewhere, and approaching 100% across parts of the Southern Tier
and Finger Lakes region. Cool north to northeasterly low level flow
will keep temperatures below average with much of the area topping
in the 50s for afternoon highs.

A weak shortwave ridge will scoot across the forecast area Friday
night, accompanied by significant mid level drying. This will allow
the showers and areas of steadier rain to taper off from west to
east, although some spotty showers should persist from the Genesee
Valley eastward. Lows Friday night will be a tad cooler than the
previous night with lows mainly in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level troughing will dive across the eastern Great Lakes
and Northeast and remain in place through much of the weekend.
Initially, this will support an area of weak low pressure to
track southwest across the region. Both synoptic moisture along
with the upper level trough providing lift will support low
chances for a few showers Saturday morning, especially across
WNY. Then with diurnal heating and the potential of some
clearing will support a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening. Coverage in showers will then decrease
from west to east Saturday night.

An amplified upper level ridge across the northern Great Lakes will
act to gradually push the existing trough and its axis east across
the area Sunday. Overall this will support more showers across the
area Sunday.  Additionally Sunday afternoon, a few thunderstorms
will be possible across the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario
region.

Temperatures this weekend will be a few degrees below average with
highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A damp start to the period as potential showers cover most of
the area from the GOMEX all the way through the Great Lakes and
to Hudson Bay. Showers will be along an elongated frontal
boundary with waves of low pressure and troughs in place along
the boundary. Currently the best potential for showers looks
like the Monday through Tuesday time period as the above
mentioned features pass over/near the region.

Guidance is still very much uncertain from Tuesday night onward as
some models keep a stalled frontal boundary over the area, while
others are much more progressive with pushing the front and trough
through. Went with the middle ground and left some shower potential
in for Wednesday & Wednesday night, mainly over the southern half of
the forecast area.

Thursday looks like the driest day as of right now, with a potential
ridge axis centering over the region ahead of an incoming trough
that will have the potential to bring more showers for the end of
the week.

Temperatures for the period will be within a few degrees of normal,
with Thursday being the warmest day as a potential ridge moves into
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place tonight from the Niagara Frontier
(KBUF/KIAG) to the lower Genesee Valley (KROC) to the eastern Lake
Ontario region (KART), although some low VFR CIGS (3-5kft) may creep
as far north as the Niagara Frontier and lower Genesee Valley late
tonight. Further south, light rain will advance across the Southern
Tier and eventually the Finger Lakes region. Expect CIGS to lower
into the MVFR range across the western Southern Tier by the early
overnight hours owed to increasing low level moisture, with MVFR
CIGS developing across the Finger Lakes through the second half of
tonight. Intermittent MVFR VSBY will be possible in areas of
moderate rain, along with some MVFR VSBY in patchy fog that may
develop later tonight across the interior Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes as well.

Friday, areas of rain and MVFR CIGS will expand across just about
all of western New York. Areas of IFR conditions are expected across
the higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes
region, including areas of fog in these same areas which may reduce
VSBY down into the IFR at times as well. Exception will be toward
Niagara County (KIAG) where they may escape with no lower than low
VFR CIGS (3-5kft). Mainly VFR is expected toward the Saint Lawrence
Valley, with low VFR CIGS (3-5kft) expected toward KART, and MVFR
CIGS across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario from late Friday
morning on.

Outlook...

Friday night...MVFR to VFR conditions from west to east, with
lingering rain showers also ending from west to east.
Saturday...VFR CIGS deteriorating to MVFR with increasing likelihood
for showers.
Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS in scattered showers.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes (less than 15
knots) will continue on the Lakes, maintaining some light, to at
times moderate chop tonight through Friday. However, there are no
Small Craft conditions forecast.

Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will then be the
rule from Friday night through much of Sunday, before a more
pronounced southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm
front approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM