999
FXUS62 KCHS 120559
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
159 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail into Monday. A storm system will
affect the area by the middle of the week. Another system could
arrive later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Tonight: Northwest flow will prevail aloft while sfc high pressure
lingers locally, supporting dry conditions through the night. Clear
skies and a weak pressure gradient will continue to support favorable
radiational cooling with light/calm winds in place. However, a
slight uptick in winds and clouds is possible within a few hours
prior to daybreak as a weak trough approaches the region. Despite
this possibility, temps are still likely to dip into the mid 50s
inland to low-mid 60s near the coast.

Sky conditions remain ideal for watching the aurora tonight.
Refer to the latest aurora forecast from the National Weather
Service`s Space Weather Prediction Center (www.swpc.noaa.gov)
for the latest aurora and geomagnetic storm updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Sunday will be another beautiful day with low humidity,
seasonable temperatures, and a mix of sun and clouds. Highs
peak in the low to mid 80s. Lows Sunday night range from the
upper 50s across the interior to mid/upper 60s at the immediate
coast.

A mid level low and associated surface reflection will track
from the Central Plains towards the East Coast Monday into
Tuesday. Moisture steadily returns back to the area, with PWats
eventually peaking over 1.75 inches which is well above
climatological normals. While isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon, higher coverage is
expected later Monday night and especially on Tuesday when the
better forcing arrives. Convective evolution is still uncertain,
but severe weather potential will bear watching for Tuesday
with forecast wind shear values (perhaps 40+ knots) supportive
of storm organization. Best instability seems to be situated
south of the Savannah River. Highs both days are forecast to be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows stay in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure system moves off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
could develop during the day, but coverage should be more
limited with rain chances only in the 20-30% range. Ridging
briefly passes across the region Thursday before the next system
potentially arrives late week into the weekend and brings rain
chances back in the forecast. Temperatures through the period
are generally near to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06Z
Monday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could
bring flight restrictions to the terminals Monday afternoon into
the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure will linger across local waters, favoring
quiet marine conditions. Southerly winds should gradually turn more
southwest a few hours prior to daybreak with the approach of a
weak/dry trough. However, wind speeds will remain around 10 kt or
less through the night. Seas will range between 1-2 ft.

Sunday through Thursday: No concerns over the marine area for
Sunday into Monday. Winds will increase Monday night into
Tuesday and will remain fairly gusty into Wednesday as low
pressure tracks towards the East coast. Seas also build and
while it looks fairly marginal at this time, there is potential
for a period of Small Craft Advisories over portions of the
waters, especially the outer Georgia and Charleston county
waters. Conditions improve for Thursday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB