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000
FXXX12 KWNP 231231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels this period with a total of eight
M-class flares (R1/Minor) observed from a variety of sources; the
largest of which was an M3.6 flare at 23/0319 UTC from Region 3654
(S08E39, Dai/beta). Region 3638 (S18W57, Bxo/beta) produced an M1.5
flare at 22/2116 UTC and continued a trend of decay. Region 3645
(S08W54, Dac/beta-gamma) produced two M1 flares at 22/1335 UTC and
22/1455 UTC, and exhibited some growth in the leader spot area. Region
3646 (N21W06, Dai/beta-gamma) produced an M1.6 flare at 22/1519 UTC and
increased in size, spot count, and became more magnetically complex. In
addition to the M3.6 flare detailed above, Region 3654 produced an M3.0
flare at 23/0821 UTC and underwent moderate development. Region 3656
(S12E53, Bxo/beta) produced an M2.8 flare at 22/1550 UTC and an M1.0
flare at 22/1630 UTC, but was in decay.

Other activity included a filament eruption near S10W02 that began at
around 23/0330 UTC, though no clearly-associated CME was visible in
LASCO imagery. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected, however, multiple
narrow, southward CMEs associated with activity emanating from the
active region cluster in the SW over the past several days are likely to
make close approaches to Earth.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over 23-25
Apr, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a slight
chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels over 23-25 Apr due to the flare potential and
location of several active regions on the visible disk. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Ambient solar wind conditions prevailed throughout the period. Wind
speeds decreased from 400-450 km/s early in the day to between 350-400
km/s. Total field strength was steady near 5 nT and Bz varied +/-5 nT.
The phi angle was negative.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 23-25 Apr
due to CH HSS influences and possible CME activity.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled and active
levels on 23 Apr, and quiet and unsettled levels on 24 Apr, due to
negative polarity CH HSS influences. Unsettled and active levels are
expected again on 25 Apr due to possible CME activity and the onset of
positive polarity CH HSS influences.