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000
FXUS65 KGGW 250843
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
243 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Today, increase in instability in areas south of I-94 results
in increased chances for storm initiation between noon and 2pm.
These pulse like storms then move NE through the evening,
diminishing after sunset.

2) Friday, increase in northeasterly winds and RH values near 20%
results in limited/elevated fire concerns, resulting in Fire
Weather Watch Friday afternoon.

3) Gradual temperature increase expected in the upcoming week with
isolated chances for precipitation on Monday and Wednesday.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Surface pressure low strengthens along a north-to-south boundary
extending from eastern Montana down into the eastern plains of
Colorado. A shortwave trough aloft, moisture transport in the low
and mid-levels, and temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal will
increase instability for locations east of this boundary. For
northeast Montana, this is area is focused south of I-94.
Convection initiation occurs this afternoon off the higher terrain
in southeast Montana and south Dakota, though a few of these
storms may develop closer to the Yellowstone River Valley. Any
storms that do develop will pulse up and down, with the greatest
threat in the strongest of storms being hail. Any storms that
continue beyond the end of daytime heating will quickly diminish
as they move to the northeast.

Further discussion regarding the Fire Weather Watch will be in the
Fire Weather Forecast product.

From Sunday, the southwest flow aloft will bring bouts of isolated
to scattered showers on Monday and Wednesday and an increasing
temperature trend through the end of the week.


CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Given that actual RH values tend to fall below NBM guidance, I
subtracted 2-4 degrees in Td`s and adjusted the RH values
accordingly through Friday.

-Enriquez



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0815Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR (MVFR in shower/thunderstorm)

DISCUSSION: High clouds will move through the region today. This
afternoon, storms develop across eastern Montana south of the
Yellowstone River Valley between noon and 2pm, moving
northeastward through the evening and diminishing after sunset.

Friday, a smaller chance for showers and thunderstorms moves
further south and east (more into the Dakotas).

SFC WIND: NW wind at 10-15 kts for KGGW and KOLF. At KSDY and
KGDV, winds will shift through the day to more northerly by
sunset at 10-15 kt. Any outflow boundaries from storms may lead to
a sudden erratic wind shift and higher gusts.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for
Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck
Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow