Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
530 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

HERE IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
MAUMEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND FOR
THE UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA.

IN THE TABLE BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MAUMEE RIVER AT FORT WAYNE...
INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 17 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 19.1 FEET. WABASH
INDIANA ON THE WABASH RIVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 14 FEET. IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR
ABOVE 14.1 FEET.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                ...MARCH 9 2015 - JUNE 7 2015...

MAUMEE RIVER BASIN
LOCATION         FS(FT)  95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO
MONTPELIER OH     12.0   9.2 10.0 11.1 11.8 12.7 13.7 14.8
NEWVILLE IN       12.0  10.2 10.7 12.2 12.7 13.5 14.6 15.1
ST. JOE FTW. IN   12.0   6.1  7.3  8.8 10.2 11.2 14.8 16.5

SAINT MARYS RIVER
DECATUR IN        17.0  13.1 13.5 15.1 16.5 18.2 20.7 21.2
MULDOON BRIDGE IN 14.0   7.4  8.0  9.2 10.1 12.2 16.4 17.6

MAUMEE RIVER
FORT WAYNE IN     17.0  10.1 11.1 12.3 14.7 17.7 19.1 21.0
DEFIANCE OH       10.0   3.8  4.7  5.1  6.1  6.8  9.3 10.3
NAPOLEON OH       12.0    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

TIFFIN RIVER
STRYKER OH        11.0  11.0 11.8 12.6 13.3 14.0 15.0 15.9

BLANCHARD RIVER
OTTAWA OH         23.0  18.5 19.4 20.5 21.8 23.1 23.8 26.1

AUGLAIZE RIVER
FORT JENNINGS OH  13.0   6.8  7.8  9.0 11.5 13.8 15.3 16.2
DEFIANCE OH       21.0  11.4 12.7 13.8 15.4 17.1 20.4 22.0

UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN
LOCATION         FS(FT)  95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

WABASH RIVER
LINN GROVE        11.0   7.4  7.6  8.3  9.2 10.5 11.4 12.3
BLUFFTON IN       10.0    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
WABASH IN         14.0   8.7  9.2 10.2 11.3 12.7 14.1 15.1
LOGANSPORT IN     15.0   6.4  7.2  7.8  8.4  9.6 10.5 10.8

TIPPECANOE RIVER
ORA IN            12.0   9.7  9.9 10.7 11.7 12.7 13.1 14.3
WINAMAC IN        10.0   7.7  7.8  8.5  9.5 10.4 10.8 13.1

MISSISSINEWA RIVER
MARION IN         12.0   4.1  4.7  5.6  6.6  7.7  9.2 10.0

SALAMONIE RIVER
WARREN IN         12.0   8.5  8.9  9.4 10.0 11.0 12.1 13.4

EEL RIVER
N. MANCHESTER IN   9.0   6.8  8.2  9.5 10.7 12.3 14.0 14.8

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG
RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND
EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL IN LOWER CASE LETTERS. AHPS CAN BE FOUND
UNDER THE HYDROLOGY/RIVERS AND LAKES SECTION.

...SNOW COVER/SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
SNOW AND ICE STILL COVER A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDELY VARIABLE SNOW DEPTHS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED FROM NEAR ONE INCH ACROSS SMALL PARTS OF NORTHWEST
OHIO AND THE DOWNSTREAM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER WABASH BASIN...TO
THREE TO SIX INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TIPPECANOE...UPSTREAM
UPPER WABASH...ST. MARYS...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
MAUMEE BASINS...AND UPWARDS OF FIVE TO TEN INCHES ACROSS THE ST.
JOSEPH AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MAUMEE BASINS. SNOW WATER
CONTENT WITHIN THE SNOW PACK IS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH...HOWEVER WHERE GREATER SNOW DEPTHS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE ST.
JOSEPH AND NORTHERN MAUMEE BASINS...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW WATER
CONTENT IS REPORTED. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE FROZEN ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION DOWN TO A DEPTH OF AT LEAST SIX INCHES...WITH MANY AREAS
REPORTING FROZEN GROUND TO AS DEEP AS A FOOT.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT
THERE IS ABOUT A 45 PERCENT CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MID MARCH ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE UPPER 20S. THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR EITHER ABOVE...NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD. NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING MID MARCH...IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD...IS AROUND 0.30
INCHES.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BELOW AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW. MANY POINTS IN THE MAUMEE AND WABASH BASIN ARE
EXPERIENCING STREAMFLOW VALUES IN THE 10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE. A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA STREAMS AND WATERWAYS ARE FROZEN OR ONLY
PARTIALLY OPEN. DEPTH OF RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN LOW
VELOCITY REGIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD LEAD TO SUBSEQUENT
ICE JAM FLOOD PROBLEMS DUE TO ICE BREAKUP AND POTENTIAL ICE JAM
FORMATION. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR ICE JAM FLOOD ISSUES APPEAR
TO BE IN THE MID MARCH TO EARLY APRIL TIMEFRAME. ICE JAMS WILL CAUSE
WATER TO PILE UP BEHIND THE JAM AND CAUSE UPSTREAM FLOODING. ICE
JAMS CAN RELEASE QUICKLY AND ALLOW LARGE QUANTITIES OF WATER TO FLOW
DOWNSTREAM IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHICH CAN CAUSE DOWNSTREAM
FLOODING.

...OVERALL FLOOD RISK...
DUE TO INITIAL LOW STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...NEAR NORMAL SNOW WATER
CONTENT...VARIED TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS AND NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...THE OVERALL RISK FOR FLOODING IS AT OR
BELOW NORMAL AT THIS TIME. THE RISK FOR SPRING FLOODS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON FUTURE PRECIPITATION EVENTS AND POTENTIAL ICE JAM
FORMATION.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER...SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY
TO SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND
PROPERTY DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE
AND LIVESTOCK AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

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